Yes, the Nasdaq Composite is in a bear market rally after falling from its 16 027 peak in November 2021.
I forecast Nasdaq Composite could rise back to 14 700 points before falling below 12 000 points again.
A casual look at the long term chart of Nasdaq Composite shows bear market rallies could rise to even more than 30 % from their most recent troughs.
Financial markets are actually not so much based on fear and greed, according to my humble opinion, but more on hope. Aside from Walls Street banks trying to manipulate/corner the market as evidenced by the many times the securities regulators globally have convicted and fined them on.
Market participants raise prices by buying up stocks based on the hope the rally will continue and riches will be made. Afterwards, when the hope evaporates due to lack of the expected fundamental drivers a "negative hope" so to say sets in and the markets are sold off. Actually, the feelings are fear and greed, but expressed more tacitly as hope.
However, fundamental drivers are notoriously difficult to forecast. In addition, even after the expected fundamentals emerge, there is always the question how will the investing public react to them.
Personally, I do not see strong fundamentals which support a potential long-term global stock market rally in the near term.
But it is the great Thomas Bayes. He was never published but Thomas Bayes was for statistics what Albert Einstein was for physics. Short-term lean startup thinking agility/adaptation.
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