Dear Reader,
Here I am going to attempt to value Microsoft Corporation, the world leader in the personal computer operating systems with MS Windows and world leader in enterprise software with the MS Office suite.
Currently the market values Microsoft at 659.67 billion USD with a price of 85.51 USD which is a truly staggering sum. Is the company worth the money? In my opinion, in the current economic climate the answer is yes. Actually, I think Microsoft is worth 20% more or circa 783 billion USD at a price of 106 USD.
Why? Simply put Microsoft corporation is at the forefront of the cloud computing revolution with its Office 365 enterprise suite and Azure cloud computing platform. MS Windows and MS Office are the biggest revenue generators for Microsoft. And the companies are switching more and more to the Office 365 subscription model. Azure is the second most popular cloud computing platform after Amazon Web Services. In addition, Microsoft is earning a lot with the Xbox console. The company entered the hardware business with its Surface Tablet and Surface Book laptops.
What are the risks for my forecast that the real(intrinsic) value of Microsoft is 783 billion USD, price of 106 USD or 20% above its current market price of 85.51? Basically, the global economy could go into a recession or negative GDP growth for two or more quarters. Usually, the information technology stocks are geared(leveraged) to the economic cycle and their prices should fall by a higher percentage than the main indices like S&P 500 or Dow Jones Industrial Average. Usually the Nasdaq composite falls by more. Companies will still continue to buy MS Windows and MS Office, but they are likely to cut costs and maybe buy fewer Microsoft licenses.
In short, if the global economy enters a recession I expect Microsoft's value to fall by more than 30%.
At the moment though, I stick to my forecast that the intrinsic price of Microsoft's stock is circa 106 USD or 20% above the current price of 85.51 USD.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of the company where I am working currently!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
Stocks valuations, analysis. Unbiased. Insightful. Property of Wolfteam Ltd., www.wolfteamedge.com If you find the blog useful, LINK TO www.posledovich.blogspot.com Stocks, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, AI, analysis, insights. CLICK ADVERTISEMENTS, SHARE ON SOCIAL NETWORKS! Technology, Bitcoin, AI, company strategy, stocks analysis. Stocks, crypto involve high RISK! Nothing on this blog is meant or should be construed as investment recommendation to buy or sell securities or their derivatives!
Disclaimer:
Disclaimer: The blog posts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".
The blog is stocks analysis and valuation, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, Artificial Intelligence, AI, deep-learning focused. Independent, unbiased AI insights.
Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blog posts on this blog and posts on social networks.
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blog post and posts on social networks!
The blog is property of Wolfteam Ltd. www.wolfteamedge.com
Respectfully yours,
Petar Posledovich
Sunday, December 24, 2017
Microsoft Valuation!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Saturday, December 9, 2017
Bitcoin Valuation!
Dear Reader,
Here I am going to attempt the (almost) impossible - to value Bitcoin.
Currently the digital currency Bitcoin, yes I think it is actually a currency, trades at 14771.75 USD.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission thinks Bitcoin and other crypto currencies are commodities. That is why this Sunday the Cboe Global Markets Inc. will start trading futures on Bitcoins.
Why do I think Bitcoin is curency? The definition of a currency is: unit of account, store of value and means of exchange. Actually Bitcoin would cover all three attributes if it was regulated. Currencies which have a central bank and respectively a government standing behind them tend to store value because the central bank ensures the currency(USD for example) stores value by targeting stable inflation rates, usually 2% change in the price level year on year. Actually, if Bitcoin did not fluctuate so much it would cover all three pillars of the definition of money.
However if the central banks(governments) start regulating it would Bitcoin lose its appeal? Possibly.
So what is the 'correct' price of Bitcoin? Since there is no cash flows behind Bitcoin the traditional valuation methods do not apply! So, basically I think technical markets analysis should come in handy here. Whenever Bitcoin breaks through resistance levels like let's say round numbers like 20 000 USD or 50 000 USD the probability of Bitcoin's value rising increases. There is some fundamental touch, though. This is the choice of governments. If governments decide in tandem they could shut Bitcoin down and drive its price to 0 (zero).
I think Bitcoin will hit 100 000 USD and then crash by more than 30%. If governments do not shut it down, after the fall Bitcoin should start slowly rising again.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of the company where I am working currently!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
Here I am going to attempt the (almost) impossible - to value Bitcoin.
Currently the digital currency Bitcoin, yes I think it is actually a currency, trades at 14771.75 USD.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission thinks Bitcoin and other crypto currencies are commodities. That is why this Sunday the Cboe Global Markets Inc. will start trading futures on Bitcoins.
Why do I think Bitcoin is curency? The definition of a currency is: unit of account, store of value and means of exchange. Actually Bitcoin would cover all three attributes if it was regulated. Currencies which have a central bank and respectively a government standing behind them tend to store value because the central bank ensures the currency(USD for example) stores value by targeting stable inflation rates, usually 2% change in the price level year on year. Actually, if Bitcoin did not fluctuate so much it would cover all three pillars of the definition of money.
However if the central banks(governments) start regulating it would Bitcoin lose its appeal? Possibly.
So what is the 'correct' price of Bitcoin? Since there is no cash flows behind Bitcoin the traditional valuation methods do not apply! So, basically I think technical markets analysis should come in handy here. Whenever Bitcoin breaks through resistance levels like let's say round numbers like 20 000 USD or 50 000 USD the probability of Bitcoin's value rising increases. There is some fundamental touch, though. This is the choice of governments. If governments decide in tandem they could shut Bitcoin down and drive its price to 0 (zero).
I think Bitcoin will hit 100 000 USD and then crash by more than 30%. If governments do not shut it down, after the fall Bitcoin should start slowly rising again.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of the company where I am working currently!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Facebook Valuation!
Dear Reader,
Now I am going to make an attempt to value Facebook Inc., one of the two most popular internet sites with www.google.com
At Price Earnings ratio of 34.69 the valuation of Facebook looks lofty, but not so much if you consider it is a technology growth stock. Actually, Facebook is wildly profitable. Its net profit margin is in excess of 40% for the most recent(Q32017) quarter. At the current run rate the company would clock in in excess of 40 billion USD in revenue. Currently the company has a market capitalization of 520 billion USD. According to the Price Sales ratio, I would say the company is overvalued. That said, Facebook is 'printing' money, the company is extremely profitable.
So what is the true intrinsic value of Facebook Inc.? The key word for the answer is growth. The company has circa 14% of the world digital(internet) advertising market and together with Alphabet Inc(Google's parent) account for more than 50% of the global internet advertising market. Basically, the digital advertising market is a duopoly. The global internet advertising market is growing year on year in excess of 15%. As long as this growth continues Facebook Inc. price will go on rising.
In my opinion Facebook Inc. price should be around 200 USD or circa 10% above the current price of the company of 179 USD. One of the reasons for the relatively conservative estimate is that Facebook itself expects its growth to slow due to inability to place too many more adds in the users' news feed.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of the company where I am working currently!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
Now I am going to make an attempt to value Facebook Inc., one of the two most popular internet sites with www.google.com
At Price Earnings ratio of 34.69 the valuation of Facebook looks lofty, but not so much if you consider it is a technology growth stock. Actually, Facebook is wildly profitable. Its net profit margin is in excess of 40% for the most recent(Q32017) quarter. At the current run rate the company would clock in in excess of 40 billion USD in revenue. Currently the company has a market capitalization of 520 billion USD. According to the Price Sales ratio, I would say the company is overvalued. That said, Facebook is 'printing' money, the company is extremely profitable.
So what is the true intrinsic value of Facebook Inc.? The key word for the answer is growth. The company has circa 14% of the world digital(internet) advertising market and together with Alphabet Inc(Google's parent) account for more than 50% of the global internet advertising market. Basically, the digital advertising market is a duopoly. The global internet advertising market is growing year on year in excess of 15%. As long as this growth continues Facebook Inc. price will go on rising.
In my opinion Facebook Inc. price should be around 200 USD or circa 10% above the current price of the company of 179 USD. One of the reasons for the relatively conservative estimate is that Facebook itself expects its growth to slow due to inability to place too many more adds in the users' news feed.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of the company where I am working currently!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Saturday, December 2, 2017
Tesla Inc. Valuation!
Dear Reader,
Here I am going to make an attempt to value Tesla Inc., the famous maker of Tesla electric automobiles.
Basically, I think Tesla Inc. is grossly overvalued. I my opinion, the real value is half its current market capitalization of 51.52 billion USD.
Why? Basically, Tesla Inc. is losing too much money. In the third quarter the company lost 619.38 million USD on sales of 2.98 billion USD or -0.208% net profit margin for the third quarter of 2017. For the whole 2016 things look a little better with a negative net profit margin of circa - 10%. At the same time another luxury sedan maker like BMW's net profit margin for 2016 is 7%. The car-making business is notorious for its low profit margins. Volkswagen's margins are even thinner than BMW. Than what is the problem with Tesla? The truth is electric vehicles are simply too expensive to make. They use too much ferrous metals which cost a fortune. The battery is too expensive simply. Even though the US government subsidizes Tesla Inc., the company still loses huge sums of money.
Can Tesla's stock go to 0(zero)? Yes it can. If there is no breakthrough in the electric car manufacturing technology, investors will not be pumping money into losing enterprises forever.
So, basically I think Tesla Inc.'s stock intrinsic value is 153 USD, half the current 306.53 USD stock price. Tesla's market capitalization should be around 25 billion USD.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of the company where I am working currently!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
Here I am going to make an attempt to value Tesla Inc., the famous maker of Tesla electric automobiles.
Basically, I think Tesla Inc. is grossly overvalued. I my opinion, the real value is half its current market capitalization of 51.52 billion USD.
Why? Basically, Tesla Inc. is losing too much money. In the third quarter the company lost 619.38 million USD on sales of 2.98 billion USD or -0.208% net profit margin for the third quarter of 2017. For the whole 2016 things look a little better with a negative net profit margin of circa - 10%. At the same time another luxury sedan maker like BMW's net profit margin for 2016 is 7%. The car-making business is notorious for its low profit margins. Volkswagen's margins are even thinner than BMW. Than what is the problem with Tesla? The truth is electric vehicles are simply too expensive to make. They use too much ferrous metals which cost a fortune. The battery is too expensive simply. Even though the US government subsidizes Tesla Inc., the company still loses huge sums of money.
Can Tesla's stock go to 0(zero)? Yes it can. If there is no breakthrough in the electric car manufacturing technology, investors will not be pumping money into losing enterprises forever.
So, basically I think Tesla Inc.'s stock intrinsic value is 153 USD, half the current 306.53 USD stock price. Tesla's market capitalization should be around 25 billion USD.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of the company where I am working currently!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
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