Apple's Business Strategy. Apple Intrinsic Valuation

Apple is relying on the App Store for its future growth, now that smartphone sales are contracting.

Actually, driven by its 2.55 trillion market capitalisation, Apple has become risk averse.

The main holders of Apple's stock are pension funds, large global asset managers and Berkshire Hathaway, the business conglomerate controlled by Warren Buffett.

Since pension funds, large global asset managers and endowments are generally risk averse, this strategy translates into Apple's risk aversion.

Apple Inc has become a corporation, far away from the risk taking technology startup ways founded by Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak. Even when it was valued at hundreds of billion of USD, Apple was taking big, significant risks under Steve Jobs. Which created the 2.2 trillion USD of wealth Apple Inc is now worth.

Project Titan or the electric vehicle manufacturing project of Apple, kept in secret is Tim Cook's attempt to break the status quo and prove that Apple can still innovate.

An Apple television set would be an interesting consumer electrons based attempt for Apple to return to its technology innovation glory.

According to my calculations, Apple's intrinsic value is 1.4 trillion USD.

Yes, I know that by the Price/Sales ratio of today standards, especially for technology companies, 1.4 trillion value for Apple seems low.

But, in my opinion we are in the biggest technology bubble in history driven by central banks's money creation and yes, some of the greater innovations in the history of the world. Many analysts and investors share the opinion that we are in another dot-com bubble.

Nasdaq has to fall from the 16 027 points of the previous peak to 7 000 points for the technology companies' valuation to be long-term sustainable and reflect the true value of the companies.

GitLab and HashiCorp Valuation. Open-source.

GitLab is currently valued at 9.3 billion USD and HashiCorp is currently valued at 6.9 billion USD on the Nasdaq bourse.

Both GitLab and HashiCorp offer open-source based cloud computing tools. GitLab provides an open-source code cloud based software for code repository, collaboration and teamwork, so quality software applications can be produced. HashiCorp offers a suite of cloud computing products, which allow you to integrate cloud computing offerings from various sources.

According to my calculations, GitLab's intrinsic worth is around 90 billion USD, while HashiCorp's intrinsic value is 73 billion USD.

Cloud computing is the future of computing and thus the future of automobile, machinery, software, financial service etc. production.

Open-source code allows GitLab and HashiCrop inherent flexibility and agility. Basically, with open-source code companies are stepping on the shoulders of giants, the giants being software developers all around the world.

Marc Andreessen, the creator of Netscape browser and venture capitalists now in an interview thinks every software developer should be assigned a value of 1 million USD. And via open source a company can actually employ every software developer the world over.

That is why open-source based, cloud computing companies like GitLab and HashiCorp can potentially have huge value. If managed right, of course.

And they are very difficult to value since cloud computing is changing with the speed of light. And the growth prospects of cloud computing companies respectively can change dramatically in the matter of days. Which is true for any industry, actually. But for software development and cloud computing speed is of the essence.

Is the Nasdaq In a Bear Market Rally?

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Aug 26, 5:15:59 PM UTC-4 · INDEXNASDAQ · Disclaimer

Yes, the Nasdaq Composite is in a bear market rally after falling from its 16 027 peak in November 2021.

I forecast Nasdaq Composite could rise back to 14 700 points before falling below 12 000 points again.

A casual look at the long term chart of Nasdaq Composite shows bear market rallies could rise to even more than 30 % from their most recent troughs.

Financial markets are actually not so much based on fear and greed, according to my humble opinion, but more on hope. Aside from Walls Street banks trying to manipulate/corner the market as evidenced by the many times the securities regulators globally have convicted and fined them on.

Market participants raise prices by buying up stocks based on the hope the rally will continue and riches will be made. Afterwards, when the hope evaporates due to lack of the expected fundamental drivers a "negative hope" so to say sets in and the markets are sold off. Actually, the feelings are fear and greed, but expressed more tacitly as hope.

However, fundamental drivers are notoriously difficult to forecast. In addition, even after the expected fundamentals emerge, there is always the question how will the investing public react to them.

Personally, I do not see strong fundamentals which support a potential long-term global stock market rally in the near term.

But it is the great Thomas Bayes. He was never published but Thomas Bayes was for statistics what Albert Einstein was for physics. Short-term lean startup thinking agility/adaptation.