Will Crypto and Bitcoin Recover?

Yes. As far as I am concerned, the price of Bitcoin will rise to and above 100 000 USD in 5 years or even less.

Other cryptocurrencies, even the more obscure ones will also rise significantly.

Cryptocurrencies will disrupt investment banking and venture capital intermediation by giving a niche for startups to finance their businesses.

Bitcoin's blockchain technology is simply too disruptive to die down easily. It took the internet more than 50 years to become commercially viable.

And Bitcoin will make slow but some significant inroads into replacing the USD as the main global reserve currency.

People, both young and old like new stuff, like to consume news and Bitcoin and crypto is the biggest single financial innovation, most probably since publicly listed companies' stocks were conceived.

Cryptocurrencies conception must remain independent and free, though. If governments manage to interfere with crypto, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies will suffer and the greatest fin-tech or financial technology innovation probably in history will be in jeopardy.

In the mean time, riches will be made, industries will be disrupted, spoils will be shared and after that latest boom and bust cycle, society should be better off.

Capitalism at its purest form.

Are Cloud Stocks Dead?

Not all.

Many, but not most cloud stocks active today will thrive long term, as far as I am concerned.

Most cloud stocks, however have lost 55 % or more of their market capitalisations from their recent peaks.

Value investing is again about to enter prime time.

The cloud based products companies that will survive and ultimately thrive are the ones that have raised enough cash, that is still on their balance sheets and are currently at somewhere around - 20 % or lower in absolute value negative net profit margins.

Cash is king, again. At least on the balance sheet.

Are We In a Commodities Bull Cycle?

Yes, I think we are in a commodities bull cycle, but it will last 5  to 7 years.

There are currently many headwinds working against oil, gas, base metals and other commodities consumption.

The only reason why the price of both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate oil futures has not exploded to or above 180 USD as JPMorgan forecasts it will is because of the United States Dollar, USD strength towards other currencies.

Once the USD starts a midterm depreciation trend, which could happen once EUR/USD touches 0.80, I think the price of gold could go to 3000 USD and the price of oil futures could rise above 150 USD.

Actually, significantly higher commodities prices would be good for almost all countries. The industrial production both in nominal and growth terms in the USA is something like 50 % to 70 % due to shale oil and conventional oil drilling production and the associated machinery building/innovation. Also, the USA is a large producer and exporter of other commodities like wheat, corn, nuts, soft agricultural commodities, oil, gas, energy distillates etc.

Nuclear war, however, could be really bad for business, I would say! No surprises here.

GitLab's Stocks Price Could Fall Further, Before GitLab Thrives

GitLab, the online code repository and collaboration service has a current market capitalisation of 7.41 billion USD.

I forecast GitLab's stock price and market capitalisation could still fall further perhaps to 3.9 billion USD market capitalisation.

After that, however, along with the Federal Reserve ceasing of interest rate hikes, GitLab's market  capitalisation could rise multiple fold from its lowest level and even surpass 35 billion USD in market capitalisation 7 to 10 years from now.

GitLab's open source, cloud-native code repository is a small revolution in code production.

GitLab should be able to keep growing and reach profitability as well.

Credit Suisse Valuation. Will Credit Suisse Go Bankrupt?

I estimate the chance that Credit Suisse goes bankrupt in the next 1 year at 35 %.

Credit Suisse, even since the acquisition of US investment bank Donaldson Lufkin and Jenrette has been a major player in the leveraged loans or junk bond underwriting and trading market.

And junk bonds with their much higher yields/interest rates than other higher rated corporate bonds are influenced very negatively in the current rising interest rate risk environment.

In my opinion, Credit Suisse's intrinsic value is 25 billion USD, provided that the current market stress forces the Federal Reserve's hand and the central bank of the United States of America soon stops raising the interest rates levels via hiking the Federal Funds Rate.

If the Federal Reserve drives the Federal Funds Rate to 4.5 % or higher, I believe Credit Suisse can be forced into insolvency. I estimate that probability at 20 %.

Does the USD Influence Bitcoin?

Yes. 

Bitcoin's price moves inversely to the USA exchange rate to major currencies, as almost all commodities's prices do.

Actually, Bitcoin is considered a commodity by the Securities and Exchange Commission. This can be due to the fact that Bitcoin's creation/production requires huge amounts of energy.

However, Bitcoin will sooner or later move in the same direction as the USD exchange rate, I forecast.

Because Bitcoin's main function is to at least partially replace the United States Dollar. One Russian journalist. I think once said that Bitcoin is USD 2.0 or with other words Bitcoin is a perfected, online version of the USD, the main world's reserve currency.

Actually, this is a unique situation. Never before have two currencies, a leader and a challenger developed simultaneously.

Snap Is Undervalued

Snap Inc, the owner of the Snapchat application fell almost 30 % on the NYSE stock market yesterday and is valued at 12.80 billion USD.

As far as I am concerned, Snap Inc's intrinsic value is 140 billion USD.

Because Snap Inc's main product Snapchat is an option on camera and video networking, Snap's  market capitalisation is bound to be volatile.

Option valuation is notoriously difficult and Snap's stock price is a case I point.

However, Snapchat's youth appeal, still growing young user base, its great AI, artificial intelligence technology in processing photographs and videos makes Snap Inc deeply undervalued at the current market capitalisation level.

Bitcoin's Price Could Surpass 100 000 USD in 5 years

Yes. I believe Bitcoin is undervalued on the disruption potential of blockchain.

Bitcoin is and will grow more efficient in the three main functions of money - unit of account, store of value and means of exchange.

What is more, more and more asset managers and hedge funds are setting aside money to invest in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is simply a new, exciting artificial intelligence application, AI and makes many production chains more efficient.

The USD United States Dollar, Not Rates Is Driving The Stock Market. Stocks' Valuation

 

The USD exchange rate to the EUR, JPY, GBP and all the world's (major) currencies is the major pricer of financial assets with the USD exerting the greatest, disproportionally high influence on technology stocks.

Apple's intrinsic value is 60 % below its current market capitalisation.

Tesla's intrinsic value is 80 % below its current market capitalisation.

Microsoft's intrinsic value is 60 % below its current market capitalisation.

Alphabet, Google's owner intrinsic value is 60 % below its current market capitalisation.

Meta, Facebook owner's intrinsic value is 27 % below its current market capitalisation.

The USD, influenced by the Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States of America is driving all asset classes' prices, technology stocks being most affected.

Oil stocks, base metals, precious metals mining stocks are undervalued.

Utilities are undervalued.

The healthcare sector is undervalued.

The world is going back to basics, according to my opinion.

Alphabet, Google Valuation. Meta, Facebook Valuation!

Alphabet Inc, Google owner is currently valued at 1.29 trillion USD.

I estimate Alphabet's intrinsic value is around 700 billion USD. Actually, Alphabet's market capitalisation was much higher only 1 year ago. However, as far as I am concerned the market was extrapolating just too high a rate of advertising growth for Google, the ubiquitous search engine.

Advertisement spending is high and growing briskly when economic times are good. Not like now, when the world is on the brink of World War Three.

For Meta inc, Facebook's owner the same argument that advertisement spending just would not grow as high as recently is valid.

However, due to regulatory pressure and Meta, being a very young and still not mature company, Meta, Facebook's owner market capitalisation has already fallen a lot and currently stands at circa 359 billion USD.

As far as I am concerned, Meta's intrinsic value lies around 370 billion USD, so Meta, Facebook's owner is a case in point where, not very often the company's current market capitalisation reflects its intrinsic value, at least according to my projections and calculations.

US Technology Stocks Are Still 40 % Overvalued. Nasdaq

The US technology stocks prices' fall is not over.

US technology stocks, measured by the Nasdaq Composite are still overvalued by 40 %, I estimate.

What we are witnessing is the bursting of the biggest stocks bubble and the largest asset bubble in terms if trillion of United States Dollar of value.

Technology stocks were grossly overvalued. And since tech giants like Apple, Microsoft and Meta are deeply intertwined with the global economy and international both goods and services supply chain, global stocks markets will also fall by 27 % from current levels of the major global stock market indices, I estimate.

The inertia and momentum of falling stocks prices is simply too great.

What we are observing in the last several days is a bear market rally.

When the dust settles, the Nasdaq finds a bottom and the USD starts depreciating, that would prove to be arguably the greatest buying opportunity in history, I foresee.

But up till then, catching the bottom could prove futile.

Commodities stocks and silver should outperform in the meant time, I think.

Oil, Gold And the United States Dollar

The United States Dollar has appreciated significantly in the last two years.

The price of gold, denominated in USD has tanked inversely related to the appreciating USD.

Oil price has risen actually, be it currently at a lower level than two months ago.

Actually, oil is serving like a backing commodity for the USD, much like gold did decades ago.

So it is not surprising that oil has appreciated along with the United States Dollar.

Actually, I think gold stocks are grossly undervalued. Soon the raising of the general level on interest rates by leading central banks, chiefly lead by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will break the economy.

Almost all sectors of the global economy, from industrial companies, through technology companies, commodities producers, retailers, healthcare companies etc. are over-leveraged, that is they have borrowed too much money, compared to their profit earning power. And if interest rates levels go up too abruptly as they are now, something in the global economy will break.

I forecast, the turmoil will start first from the repurchase agreements part of the banking sector much as in 2008, because it is banks which have given out this huge amount of loans.

And when the banks stop the short-term lending via commercial paper, companies will starve for cash with which to pay workers' salaries and other administrative costs. And we will again have a Great Recession as in 2008, but I think the coming one will be deeper.

And of course, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will run to the rescue of mainly banks and the global economy by printing trillions of USD, EUR and etc. fiat currencies by buying up government bonds and overnight repo lending, yet again, I estimate

And as it is logical, in my view, the price of gold will shoot up and gold mining stocks' prices will just explode.

And yes, I do think oil is undervalued. I find it shocking that the price of oil is not at 150 USD for example. Once the United States Dollar, USD starts depreciating because of the future money printing of central banks the prices of both Brent and West Texas Intermediate Oil futures could surpass 200 USD and the prices of stocks of oil producing companies will just explode, go exorbitant, I think.