Stocks, Bonds, Foreign Exchange, Oil and Gold!

Dear Reader,

I stick with my forecast that the US major stock indices(S&P 500, DJIA, Nasdaq) will post 5-8% gains for 2015. Nasdaq is at this range, while DJIA and S&P 500 are close.

I forecast the Federal Reserve will hike the Federal Funds Rate at the December 2015 meeting. I stick with my forecast the 10 year US trasury yield will touch 2.7% in 2015. I stick with my forecast the yield on the 10 year German government bond(bund) will rise to 1.0% in 2015.

My foreacst that the major European stock market indices(CAC, DAX, FTSE) could rise 10-15% is close to coming true.

I revise my forecast about oil. WTI Oil should reach 60 USD in 2016.
EUR/USD should reach parity 1.0 in 2016. USD/JPY should fall to 110 in 2016.

Gold to fall to 800 USD in 2016-2017 where it will find a bottom.

My forecast that some tech stocks are in a bubble already came true. Some of these bubbles(FUEL, GroupOn, FitBit, GoPro etc.) have already popped.

The broader market, though, should remain relatively unaffected.

I revise my forecast about large cap tech stocks-> they remain fairly valued. Google, Apple, Electronic Arts, Twitter, LinkedIn are fairly valued. Facebook is overvalued. Microsoft still has some upside potential on Windows 10.


Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Markets. Many Forecasts and Views!

Dear Reader,

My forecast that the major US stock markets indices will finish 2015 up 5-8% is about to come true. It certainly did not look this way two months ago after the 15% correction.
I keep my forecast that DJIA, S&P500 and Nasdaq will finish the year up 5-8%.

I forecast the Federal Reserve will raise the Federal funds rate by 0.25% in December 2015. The US 10 year treasury yield should reach 2.7% in 2015, ... yes, there is still time ...

Large cap US technology stocks and large cap US banks will benefit the most from the coming rally in US equities.

 Apple, Google, Microsoft, Electronic Arts, Twitter, LinkedIn are undervalued. Facebook is overvalued.
JPMorgan, WellsFargo, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are undervalued.

The German 10 year government bond(bund) yield will reach 1.00% in 2015, yes there is still time ...
The Italian, Spanish, Portuguese and Greek bonds will endure some sell off, but nothing drastic.

I believe the European Central bank will not announce any easing measures at its meeting in December 2015.

I beleive Russia equities are undervalued on oil. China equities are overvalued. Brazil equities are slightly undervalued.

Oil WTI to reach 65 USD in 2015. The forecast seems excessive, so I am following the market closely with the inclination to put off the time point of oil reaching 65 USD.

Global oil majors like ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Chevron, BP Shell, Total, Gazprom, Rosneft are undervalued.

Gold to fall to 800 USD in 2-3 years. Gold mining majors are still overvalued.

My forecast that EUR/USD will reach 1.00 is within sight, so I stick with it. USDYEN to fall to 110 in 2015.


Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Markets. Change of Blog Strategy!

Dear Reader,

I am changing the strategy of by blog a bit. I am going to post once a month, but the post will be longer and will contain more information.

That said, I still believe major US indices will post 5-8% gains in 2015. That said it becomes obvious that buying the dip at these levels should prove handsomely profitable.

I believe Europe's major stock indices(FTSE, DAX, CAC, MIB) will post 5-8% gains in 2015. Here, again, buying the dip should prove profitable.

I believe the German 10 year bund yield will reach 1.00% in 2015. The 10 year US treasury yield should touch 2.7%. I believe the Federal reserve will raise the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25% in December 2015.

I believe the following tech stocks are undervalued: Microsoft, Google, Apple, Twitter, LinkedIn, FitBit, Gopro. I believe Facebook is fully valued.

I believe WTI oil will rise to 65 USD in 2015. So buying the global oil majors like Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Exxon Mobil, BP, Shell, Total should prove profitable at these levels.

I believe gold will fall to 800 USD in 2-3 years, so gold mining stocks are still overvalued.

Other industrial metals are close to a bottom.



Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Buying the Current Dip in Equities?

Dear Reader,

I revise my forecast on Fed policy. I forecast a hike in December 2015.
I still forecast US major stock indices to post 5-8% gains in 2015.
I expect EU major stock indices(DAX, CAC, FTSE) to post 5-8% in 2015.

That said, buying the current dip should prove handsomely profitable.

I expect 10 year US treasury yield to touch 2.70% in 2015. I expect 10 year German bunds yield to touch 1.0% in 2015.

I expect oil WTI to recover to 65 USD in 2015. Gold to fall to 800 USD in 2, 3 years.

Twitter, LinkedIn are undervalued. Facebook, Apple are fully valued. Microsoft is undervalued on Windows 10.


Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Buying the Current Western Major Stock Markets Dip and FED Hike Next Week?

Dear Reader,

I still expect major US stock indices(DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq) to post 5-8% gains in 2015. Basically, buying the current dip should prove handsomely profitable.

I still expect the Federal Reserve to hike the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25% next week AND in December 2015. I forecast the US 10 year treasury yield will reach 2.7% in 2015.

I forecast the major European stock markets to post mild 5-8% gains in 2015, so buying the dip here will again be profitable. 10 year German government bonds yield should touch 1.00% in 2015. I forecast the major eurozone 'periphery' government bonds (Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Greece) to sell off in the year's end. Spanish and Italian 10 year government bonds yield should reach 3.00% in 2015.

I forecast oil WTI to recover to 65 USD in 2015. Gold will fall to 800 in 2-3 years.



Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Predictions Results and More Forecasts!

Dear Reader,

I still believe that US major stock indices will finish the year 2015 up 5-8%. So buying the current dip should prove (quite) profitable.

Accuracy of Predictions: As evidenced by previous posts, I predicted that US tech stocks will correct 30%. This came true for stocks listed in the last 3-4 years, while old tech majors like Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple corrected circa 20% along with Facebook. I predicted also that there will not be a crash. I update my prediction that most of the tech stocks will recover their losses.

European stock indices, though, will not fully recover  their highs. I expect DAX, CAC, FTSE to post circa 5% gains in 2015.

I forecast the Federal Reserve will raise rates in September and December or twice this year. I forecast the German 10 year bund yield will touch 1.00% in 2015 and US 10 year treasury yield will reach 2.7% in 2015.

EUR/USD should fall to 0.90, while USD/JPY should touch 110.

I believe oil WTI will recover to 60 USD in 2015, so global oil majors look like a good investment.

Gold should fall to 800 USD in 2-3 years.


Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

How long will the sell off in stocks continue?

Dear Reader,

I expect the correction in US stocks to continue some bit longer. I stick to my forecast that major US stock indices will post 5-8% gains in 2015, so I expect buying the current dip to be profitable.

For the major European stock markets(FTSE, DAX, CAC), however, the recovery will not be that strong. They should be mildly profitable for the year.

I expect 10 year German bunds yield to touch 1.00%  in 2015. I forecast US 10 year treasuries yield will touch 2.70% in 2015. The Federal Reserve will hike rates in 2015.

Chinese stocks still seem overvalued. Other major emerging markets(Russia, Brazil, India), though, look close to a bottom.

I expect oil WTI to recover to 60 USD in 2015. Gold to fall to 800 USD in 2-3 years.

I expect EUR/USD to touch 0.90 in 2015, while USD/YEN to fall to 110 in 2015.

Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Buying the dip in stocks, selling the rally in bonds?

Dear Reader,

I still believe the main US stock market indices(DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq) will post 5-8% gains in 2015.

I believe now buying the dip is a good strategy. Social networks Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter are undervalued. GoPro and FitBit offer large value, have high upside potential.

I still think US 10 year  treasuries yield will touch 2.70% in 2015. I still believe EUR/USD will touch 0.90 in 2015.  The 10 year German bunds yield will stay below 1.5% in 2015, but will touch 1.00% in 2015.

I now think the DAX, FTSE, CAC will post 10% in 2015, which is a revision of my 15% 2015 gain forecast made some time ago.

I believe USD/JPY will touch 110 in 2015.

I forecast gold will fall towards 800 USD in 2-3 years.
Oil WTI will rise towards 60USD.
 OIL majors Exxon Mobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, BP, Shell, Total offer significant value.

Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!

Conflicts of Interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies and commodities mentioned in the blogpost or posts on social networks.

Stocks, Bonds, Commodities and Foreign Exchange!

Dear Reader,

I still believe the main US stock market indices(DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq) will post 5-8% gains in 2015.

I believe Facebook, LinekdIn, Twitter and Google are undervalued. Oil majors like Exxon Mobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Total offer good value. Apple is fully valued.

US bank majors Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are undervalued.

I believe the yield on US 10 year treasuries will touch 2.7% in 2015. The Federal Reserve will hike the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25% in September AND December 2015.

I believe the German 10 year bunds(government bonds) yield will stay below 1.5% in 2015. The eurozone 'periphery' government bonds(Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Greece) will sell off towards year end. I expect the yield on 10 year government bonds of Italy and Spain to touch 3.0% in 2015.

I expect oil(WTI) to recover and touch 60 USD by the end of 2015.
I forecast gold will fall towards 800 USD in 2-3 years.

I forecast EUR/USD will head towards 0.90 in 2015. USD/JPY will touch 110 in 2015.


Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Bonds, Stocks, Commodities, Foreign Exchange!

Dear Reader,

I still expect major US stock market indices to post 5-8% gains in 2015. US 10 year treasury yield should touch 2.7% in 2015. The Fed will hike in September AND December.

I forecast the German 10 year bund  yield will stay below 1.5%. Gold should fall to 800 USD in 2-3 years.

Oil looks undervalued at the moment. I think it will get to 60 USD by year end.

Oil majors stocks Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch, BP look undervalued.

US bank majors JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs look undervalued.

I forecast EUR/USD will touch 0.90 in 2015, while USD/YEN could fall to 110.


Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Stocks, Bonds, FX and Commodities!

Dear Reader,




I still expect US stock market indices to post gains of 5-8% in 2015.
US 10 year treasuries to touch 2.7% in 2015. I expect the Federal Reserve to hike rates in September AND December.




I forecast German 10 year bunds yield to stay below 1.5% in 2015. I expect Spanish, Italian, Portuguese and Irish government bonds to sell off. I expect Spanish and Italian 10 year government bonds yield to reach 3.0% in 2015.




Stocks: LinkedIn(LNKD), Facebook(FB), Twitter(TWTR), GoPro(GPRO) and FitBit(FIT) seem undervalued. Oil majors Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Conoco Phillips deliver good value at these levels. Major Eurozone banks seem undervalued.




I expect Oil(WTI) to recover to about 70 USD in 2015. I expect gold to fall to 800 USD in 2-3 years.


I expect EUR/USD to touch 0.90 in 2015 and USD/JPY to fall back to 110 in 2015.










Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Stocks, Bonds, FX, Commodities and Economic Forecasts!

Dear Reader,

I am of the opinion that US major stock indices will post 5-8% gains in 2015. Major European stock indices(DAX, FTSE, CAC) will post 10-15% gains in 2015.

German 10 year government bonds yield to remain below 1.5% in 2015. US 10 year treasury yields to touch 2.7% in 2015. I expect the Federal Reserve to hike the Federal Funds Rate in September AND December by 0.25%.

Oil looks like a good value at 50 USD. I forecast many times before that gold will fall to 800 USD in 2-3 years, so I am not suprised by the fall of the price of gold in the recent days.

Stocks: I believe Microsoft(MSFT), GOPRO(GPRO), LinkedIN(LNKD) and FitBit(FIT) are undervalued at these levels.

I believe the US economy will grow less than 2.5% in 2015 and the eurozone will grow by less than 1.6% in 2015.


Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Stocks, Bonds, Currencies and Commodities!

Dear Reader,

I still expect US 10 year treasuries yield to reach 2.7% in 2015 and the Federal reserve to hike the Federal funds rate both in September AND December 2015 by 0.25%.

I still think Germany 10 year government bonds yield will remain below 1.5% in 2015. Spanish, Italian and other eurozone 'periphery' bonds to sell off. 10 year Italian and Spanish government bonds yield to hit 3.0% in 2015.

I still think US stocks should rise 5-8% in 2015 measured by the main indices.

I think FitBit(FIT), GoPro(GPRO) and Microsoft(MSFT) have a lot of upside potential and should outperform the main indices.

In the longer run Google(GOOGL) should do fine as well.

I stick with my forecast that gold will fall to 800 USD in 2-3 years.

EUR/USD should reach 0.90 in 2015. USD/JPY should revert to 110 in 2015.


Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Bonds, Stocks, Foreign Exchange and Commodities!

Dear Reader,

I still forecast US stock indices will grow 5-8% in 2015.

10 year German government bonds yields should remain below 1.5% in 2015. I expect the yields on Spanish and Italian ten year government bonds to reach 3.00% in 2015.

I forecast that the 10 year US treasury yield will touch 2.70% in 2015.

EUR/USD to target 0.90 in 2015. Gold to sell off to 800 USD in 2-3 years.
Oil to remain between 50 and 70 USD in 2015. I am undecided on a direction for oil.



Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Individual Stocks and Bonds!

Dear Reader,

I expect German 10 year government bonds  yields to remain below 1.5% in 2015.
US 10 year treasuries to touch 2.7% in 2015 driven by the TWO Fed rate hikes I forecast in September and December.

The EUR/USD to reach 0.90 in 2015. Gold to fall to 800 USD in two-three years.

My forecast in a twitter post that Fitbit(FIT) is undervalued came true and the stock rallied strongly.
I forecast Microsoft(MSTF) will rally along with the introduction of Windows 10.

I forecast Spanish and Italian 10 year government bonds yields to reach 3.5% in 2015.


Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



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Financial Forecasts, Results and Update!

Dear Reader,

I forecast the 10 year German government bonds yield will stay below 1.5% in 2015. EUR/USD to target 0.90 in 2015. US stocks sould post gains of 5-8% in 2015.

My forecast that the eurozone 'periphery' government bonds(Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland etc.) will sell off came true recently. My forecast that German 10 year bunds will sell off also came true. See earlier posts

I forecast gold will sell off to 800 USD in 2-3 years.

The eurozone 'periphery' government bonds(Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland etc.) sell off will continue. Spanish and Italian 10 year government bonds yields will touch 3.00% in 2015.

US 10 year treasury yield will touch 2.70% in 2015.

The Federal Reserve will raise the Federal Funds Rate in September AND December by 0.25%.

I forecast the US and eurozone GDP will grow less than 2.3% and 1.7% year on year respectively


Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Economic and Financial Forecasts!

Dear Reader,

I forecast that the German 10 year bunds yield will stay bellow 1.5% in 2015. US 10 year treasury yield is to target 2.7% in 2015. EUR/USD to reach 0.90 in 2015. Gold to fall to 800 USD in 2-3 years.

I forecast the US economy will grow below 2.3% in 2015 and the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 0.25 in September AND December 2015.

US stock markets measured by the main indices to rise 5-8% in 2015. European major stock markets(DAX, FTSE, CAC) to rise 10% in 2015. I forecast the eurozone to grow below 1.7% year on year in 2015.

I forecast Spanish and Italian 10 year bonds yields to reach 3.00% in 2015.
IF Greece defaults, Spanish and Italian 10 year bonds yields can touch 5.5%!


Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



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Forecast Results, Bonds, Stocks, Commodities and Foreign Exchange!

Dear Reader,

10 year German bunds yield fulfilled my forecast of 1.00% in 2015 this week. I expect 10 year German bunds yield to stay below 1.5% in 2015.

My forecast that the DAX will enter a correction(a fall of 10%) also came true. I expect the main European indices(FTSE, CAC, DAX) to post gains of around 10% in 2015.

I forecast the main US stock indices(DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq) will rise 5-8% in 2015.

Gold is to target 800 USD in 2-3 years time. EUR/USD to target 0.90 in 2015.

US 10 year treasury yield to touch 2.70% in 2015.

My forecast(see preious posts) that oil will bounce from around 40 USD also came true. But I forecast bounces at 80 and 70 USD :-), so I will not commit with a forecast for now.

Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Bunds Forecast, Stocks, Bonds, FX and Commodities!

Dear Reader,

My forecast that German 10 year bunds yields will touch 1.00% in 2015 almost came true yesterday. I stick with it. I believe the German 10 year bunds yields will not go over 1.00% by much in 2015.

I am still of the opinion that US stocks will post a gain of 5-8% measured by the main indices.

I forecast that the Federal Reserve will raise the Federal Funds Rate in September.

I forecast gold will tumble to 800 USD in 2-3 years. As I predicted, European stocks largely suffered a 10% correction from the highs reached in 2015. I believe DAX, CAC and FTSE will post around 10% gains for 2015.

 I still believe EUR/USD will touch 0.90 in 2015.


Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



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US and China Stocks, Eurozone Bonds and Gold!

Dear Reader,

I remain with my new view that the main US stock indices will rise 5-8% in 2015. There is a containable tech bubble in some public stocks and many nonpublic stocks. Many mutual funds and institutional investors that invested in the new tech 'stars' will get burned, but this should not derail the US stock bull market.

I forecast that the yield on the 10 year German government bond will reach 1.00% in 2015 and the EUR/USD will reach 0.90 in 2015. My forecast of USD/YEN at 120 already came true(see earlier posts), so I am still weighing the situation for a 'hard' view on this market.

The intensive bull market in Chinese stocks should continue. The sell off in 'periphery' eurozone government bonds is bound to continue.

I forecast gold will fall to 800 in 2-3 years.

Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



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Change of View on US Stock Market!

Dear Sir or Madam,

I am reversing my forecast that US stocks, measured by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, will fall respectively 20% and 30% in 2015.

Now I forecast that US equities measured by the main indices(S&P 500, DJIA, Nasdaq) will grow by 6-8% a year in the next 2-3 years.

I still think there is a bubble in nonpublic tech stocks. Some of the public tech stocks, however, have already corrected. I still think some mutual funds and other institutional investors will loose a lot of money, but that event should be a controlled one.

I still think 10 year German government bonds yield will reach 1.00% in 2015. I confirm my forecast of the EUR/USD reaching 0.90 in 2015. Eurozone 'periphery' government bonds will continue their sell off. I forecast gold will sell off sharply to 800 USD within 2-3 years.

My forecast that the German DAX will sell off 10% has already come true, so now I forecast the DAX Index will finish up 15% for 2015.


Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Bonds and Stocks sell-off!

Dear Reader,

I am still of the opinion that US stocks will sell off 20%(S&P 500) from current levels in 2015. The Nasdaq Composite will sell off more than 30%.

Nonpublic and many public technology and biotechnology companies are in a bubble. Some of the valuations and reports are ridiculous.

The German 10 year government bond yield will reach 1.0% in 2015. The other eurozone government bonds will sell off as well. US 10 year treasury yield will reach 2.7%(as forecasted in earlier posts) in 2015. The Federal Reserve, in my opinion, will raise rates in September. US GDP will grow not more than 2.5% year on year in 2015.

Gold will reach 1050 in 2015. EUR/USD, despite its recent bounce, should reach 0.90 in 2015.

The German DAX Index is on the verge of a 10% correction, as I predicted in earlier posts.

Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



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Bonds Sell-off Prediction, Stocks, Commodities and FX!

Dear Reader,

My predictions(see earlier posts) that 10 year German government bonds yield will reach 0.7% in 2015 came true on 7 May 2015. Yields fell from that lofty level through today. My new target for the 10 year German government bond yield is 1.00% in 2015.

I predict that the sell off of eurozone 'periphery' government bonds will accelerate. 10 year Spanish and Italian government bond yields will reach 2.5% in 2015.

I still expect US main stock indices to sell off 20% in 2015 measured by the S&P 500. The Nasdaq will sell more than 30%.

Gold will target 1050 in 2015. EUR/USD will target 0.90 in 2015.

Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



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Stock and Bonds!

Dear Reader,

German government bonds sold off this week. I stick with my forecast that the yield on the 10 year German government bonds will get to 0.7% in 2015.

I still think US stocks will correct 20% in 2015. The DAX lost about 7% from its peak recently and as you might remember I predicted a 10% percent correction, so the DAX should fall a bit more in 2015.
I am still of the opinion that eurozone government bonds are a HUGE bubble and they should sell off hard in the next 1-2 years.

I forecast gold will get to 1050 in 2015 and the EUR/USD will target 0.9 in 2015.



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Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Bubbles and Eurozone Sovereign Bonds, US Tech Stocks!

Dear Reader,

I still expect US stocks to sell off 20% from current levels in 2015. There is a small tech bubble in the US that warrants a 30% correction of the Nasdaq. I know this time the tech companies have revenues, but the valuations seem stretched to say the least. Some of the nonpublc tech firms are valued at ridiculuous levels.

The eurozone sovereign bonds is a HUGE bubble. One of the biggest in history. It should pop sooner or later. I predict the 10 year German government bonds yield to reach 0.7% in 2015.

I expect the EUR/USD to reach 0.90 in 2015, while gold should fall towards 1050 in 2015. There is a risk that gold can crash losing more than 30% from the current levels in the next 2-3 years.



Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Predictions, Results and more Forecasts!

Dear Reader,

European stocks seem to have started the 10% correction I predicted. The German DAX Index is down circa 5.5% from its peak.

European 'periphery' government bonds seem to have started the sell off I predicted. Spanish and Italian government bonds sold off hard during the past several weeks. I think the sell off will continue and even accelerate.

I expect the German 10 year government bond(bund) yield to reach 0.70% in 2015.

Basically, I am of the opinion that eurozone government bonds at the moment are one of the greatest bubbles in history, if not the greatest...

I expect US stocks to enter bear market in 2015, 20% or more fall from their peaks measured by the main indices.US tech stocks, both public and nonpublic, are in a (small) bubble. Biotech stocks as well. Tech and biotech stocks should sell off more than 30% from their peaks in 2015.



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Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Chinese stocks, US stocks, EU government bonds!

Dear Reader,

I think Chinese stocks will form a bubble in 2015. US tech stocks seem overvalued. There are certainly  some similarities to the dot com mania in 2000.

EUR/USD to target 0.90 in 2015. Gold to target 1050 in 2015.
The biggest dislocation seems to be in the eurozone government bonds market. The values of the southern eurozone periphery yields are simply outrageous. I do not believe the macroeconomic environment justifies such valuations. Something is bound to give. The ECB provides support, so the mania could go on for a while, but the music will stop at some point. The hangover from the party should be significant.
.

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Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Bubbles, Economic and Financial Forecasts!

Dear Reader,

Non-farm payrolls in March in the USA were weak. I expect a very weak GDP reading for the first quarter of 2015. Overall, I forecast US GDP to grow no more than 2.5% year on year in 2015. Actually, I think the growth year on year of US GDP for 2015 will be closer to 2.0% than to 2.5%.

That said, I do not expect the Fed to get swayed. I think the Federal Reserve will raise the Federal Funds Rate in September 2015, although there is a decent chance the rate hike will happen even in June. I expect the US 10 year treasury yield to reach 2.7% somewhere in 2015.

US tech and biotech stocks are in a bubble. But the bubble is not as big as the dot com bubble. I expect the Nasdaq to loose little more than 30% of its value. The S&P 500 should fall 20% from its current levels.

I expect a 10%, at least, correction of eurozone stock markets from the current levels. I know the ECB is printing money, but the eurozone economy is just too weak to justify the current valuations alone.
I expect the eurozone GDP to grow 1.6% year on year in 2015.

Eurozone bonds are in a significant bubble. I forecast the German 10 year bund yield to touch 0.7% in 2015.

I expect the EUR/USD to reach 0.90 in 2015 and gold should touch 1050 in 2015.



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Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Stocks, Bonds and Economic Forecasts!

Dear Reader,

US tech and biotech stocks are in a bubble. I expect a 30% sell off in these two segments of the US stock market within 2015. The main US stock indices to sell off 20% from current levels.

EUR/USD to target 0.90 in 2015. Gold to fall to 1050 USD in 2015.

European stocks to also sell off  20% from current levels in 2015. Eurozone bonds to sell off in 2015. The yield on the 10 year German government bond to target 0.7% in 2015. I expect eurozone GDP to grow less than 1.6% in 2015.

I forecast US GDP to grow less than 2.5% in 2015 year on year. US treasuries will sell off in 2015. The yield on the US 10 year treasury to target 2.7% in 2015.


Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Stocks, Bonds and New FX Targets!

Dear Reader,

I still expect US stock markets to fall 20% in 2015 from the current levels measured by the main indices. US tech stocks and biotech stocks are in a bubble and should fall more than 30% from the current levels. Eurozone stocks should fall 20% from the current levels.

US treasuries should sell off in 2015. The 10 year yield is to target 2.7% in 2015. Eurozone bonds should also sell off in 2015, they seem to be in a bubble. I think the 10 year bund yield could reach 0.70% in the rest of 2015.

EUR/USD and USD/YEN broke my targets of respectively 1.05 amd 1.20. So my new target for the EUR/USD is 0.95 in 2015 and for the USD/YEN 1.35 in 2015.



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Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Currencies, Stocks and Bonds!

Dear Reader,

My forecasts for the foreign exchange markets are almost coming true. USD/YEN is already above 120 and EUR/USD is close to 1.05.

I still expect US stock markets to sell off in 2015 nearly 20% from the current levels measured by the main indices. Tech and biotech stocks should fall 30% from the current levels. US nonpublic and some public tech and biotech are in a bubble. Eurozone stocks should also sell off by more than 20% from the current levels disrupted by the US stock markets.

I expect the yield on the 10 year US treasury to reach 2.7% in 2015. Eurozone government bonds should sell of in 2015.

Gold to target 1050USD in 2015.



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Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Stocks, Bonds and Emerging Markets!

Dear Reader,

After the Greece situation  temporarily got settled there was risk on again.
I personally expect US stocks to sell off more than 20% from the current levels measured by the main indices. Biotech and tech stocks should fall circa 30% or more, because there are in a bubble.

Eurozone bonds should start selling off somewhere in the first two quarters of 2015. India and China look good value plays in the long term, even though the Federal reserve will raise rates.

I expect US treasuries to start selling off in 2015 as the Federal Reserve will raise the Federal Funds Rate. The disruption of the US stock markets will transpire into eurozone stocks and they will sell of again.


Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Stocks and Bonds!

Dear Reader,

Gold broke briefly 1200 this week. Gold is about to target 1050 in 2015. EUR/USD should target 1.05 in 2015.

US stocks should fall 20% measured by the main indices from the current levels. US Tech stocks, especially nonpublic venture capital backed, are in a bubble, along with biotech. Both should decline more than 30%.

The disruption that the forecasted fall in US equities causes, should bring down German, French and euro area stocks in general. Yields on eurozone government bonds should rise in 2015.

The yields on US tresuries should increase in 2015 as well. The yield on the 10 year US treasury should reach 2.70% in 2015.

Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Stocks, Bonds and Commodities!

Dear Reader,

The eurozone grew a mediocre 0.3% quarter on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2014. I still expect 'periphery'(Spanish, Italian, Portuguese, Irish etc.) eurozone government bonds to sell off and their yields to rise in 2015.

US stocks should fall more than 20% from the current levels of the S&P 500. EUR/USD should target 1.05 in 2015. Mid-to-large cap oil companies and base metals producers look good value plays in the next 3-4 years.

Chinese and India equities look like good value plays for the next 2-3 years. Eurozone stocks(DAX, CAC, FTSE MIB) should sell off at least 20% from the current levels.

US treasuries yield should rise in 2015. The 10 US treasury yield can target 2.5% in 2015.

Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



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Stocks, Bonds and Currencies!

Dear Reader,

The non farm payrolls results were predominantly positive. The Federal Reserve seems poised to raise rates in the second half of 2015. US and EU stocks should sell off and fall more than 20% from the current levels. There is a bubble in tech stocks. I know that the hottest public and nonpublic companies have revenues this time. They did  not have in the dot com boom. The market capitalization this time is excessive and many hot technology companies look overvalued.

I am of the opinion that Greece will cause problems. Eurozone 'periphery' government bonds should start selling off in the first or second quarter of 2015. The yields on Spanish, Italian, Irish, Portuguese, French, Greek etc. will rise significantly in 2015.

Oil seems to have found a bottom. Gold should sell off and target 1050 in 2015. EUR/USD will target 1.05 in 2015. Volatility(VIX) will rise towards 30 driven by regulators. Currencies will be an interesting asset class in 2015.


Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Stock Markets, Oil, EUR/USD and Gold!

Dear Reader,

US stock markets end January 2015 in minus. The correction should exceed 20%, tech and biotech stocks will fall more. EU stocks should finish 2015 in minus as well. Gold should fall with a target of 1050 USD. EUR/USD should touch 1.05 in 2015.

Shale oil and gas plays in the US seem a good value play at these levels, with potential to return multiple on the initial investment. Chinese and India stocks look like a good bet.


Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

ECB QE, EUR/USD, US and EU Stocks, US and EU government bonds!

Dear Reader,

The European Central Bank announced full blown Quantitative Easing.

In a previous blogpost(State of Market Affairs!) I forecast the EUR/USD will go to 1.0 in 2 to 3 years. Actually, this could happen in 1 or 2 years. I expect EUR/USD to reach 1.10 in 2015 and in a bear case 1.05 even.

I still forecast that US and eurozone equities will post negative returns in 2015. Yields on eurozone 'periphery' government bonds(Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece etc.) should start rising in the first or second quarter of 2015 at the latest. German government bonds' yields should start increasing in the second half of 2015.

The yields on US treasuries should also start to rise in the second half of 2015 when the Federal Reserve will raise the Federal Funds Rate.


Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Stock markets, ECB QE, Commodities and EUR/USD!

Dear Reader,

Did the US stock market correction(I forecast a fall of more than 20%) start this week? It is possible. I expect a fall of circa 30% for the major indices in 2015 or 2016 at the latest. Tech and biotech stocks should decline more than 30%. Energy and metals and mining stocks should also post large losses. Financials seem weak as well.

Will the European Central Bank announce a quantitative easing(QE) program next week(buy trillions of eurozone government bonds)? I am against the consensus here. I believe the European Central Bank will either postpone the QE or announce a lower amount than market expectations: less than 500 billion euros.

Gold is making gains this year. Personally, I think gold will post negative returns in 2015. In the long run, up to 2019, gold should fall to 750-800 USD. It is possible that oil is close to a bottom. Copper can fall more.

EUR/USD should reach 1.10 in by the end of the year. I believe eurozone(DE, FR, UK etc.) stocks will fall in 2015.

Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

US and EU Stock markets, Gold and Oil!

Dear Reader,

US and eurozone stock markets wobbled in the beginning of 2015. Personally, I think this is a sign of things to come.  US and eurozone stock markets should post negative returns for 2015. Oil is close to finding a bottom. Tech stocks seem vulnerable. Apple, for example is in a correction territory. Apple, in particular, could suffer if the economy slows down due to its focus on the upper-intermediate segment.

Twitter, LinkedIn and Facebook are other candidates for a steep fall. Golds stocks seem good short bets at the current levels, since I think gold is about to post a steep drop in 1-2 years.

Eurozone 'periphery' yields(Spain and Italy) gyrate since 1 January on Greece. I think Spanish and Italian yields should start rising within the first two quarters of 2015.


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Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Currencies, Oil and US stocks!

Dear Reader,

Happy New Year!

Regarding markets, the yen is likely going to get to 125 USD/YEN sooner than I predicted(in one year...see previous posts).

The euro is already very close to 1.20 EUR/USD.
Eurozone government bond yields are at record lows and they should increase in the midterm.

Shale oil and gas companies look interesting at the current valuations. The price of oil fell precipitously, so it is likely that it will recover quickly(v-shaped recovery). If the price of oil rises abruptly, the shale oil and gas companies could turn into a great investment.

The US stock market rally should go on for a while, before a likely bear market ensues.


Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!