What Is the Worth Of Open Source

Red Hat, the largest company developing open source code was acquired for 34 billion USD by IBM.

So what is the value of open source code production?

I estimate the open source approach to software code development is worth around 10 trillion USD in the long term. Just the value of Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta was close to 10 trillion USD 1, one year ago.

Actually, IBM intends to develop its open, hybrid cloud future based on Red Hat capabilities.

Infrastructure as a Service, IaaS is the largest cloud computing business by revenue.

Analysts have been estimating that only Amazon's AWS cloud business could be worth 3 trillion USD.

GitLab is an interesting company trying also to develop open source cloud applications.

In my personal opinion, cloud computing's whole area of business could worth North of 10 trillion USD in 10 years time, because computing is essentially becoming computing.

Crypto, AI, Cloud And Open Source Code Are the Hottest IT Verticials. In My Opinion

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies will quite simply change everything we know by making processes more efficient. The blockchain algorithm will unify many processes.

Cloud computing is the new computing. The cloud is taking over office software, desktops, computer gaming. Soon it will take over mobile computing.

Companies like GitLab and HashiCorp are trying to disrupt IaaS cloud computing.

GitLab's approach via open source code production of its code collaboration, teamwork software code repository system is quite interesting and unique, I would say.

Open source has been waited to realize its value for decades. "Stepping on the shoulders of giants/titans".

The titans in this case being the worldwide coding community.

Sooner or later open source code will come to fruition. That is my personal opinion, at least.

Tesla Is Worth 120 Billion USD

Yes, I know Tesla's current capitalisation is 750.6 billion USD on public bourses.

However, Tesla is very unprofitable, Tesla's factories in Texas and Berlin are "money furnaces" according to Elon Musk.

In the long run, Tesla's intrinsic value is 120 billion USD, according to my estimates.

This is the value of the electric vehicle technology possessed by Tesla.

In the future, if Tesla achieves a breakthrough which enables scalable, profitable electric vehicles production, Tesla could be worth around 370 billion USD.

GitLab's Open Source Approach Value

GitLab is basing on open source code writing its cloud based code repository.

GitLab's code repository ensures via seamless teamwork, collaboration and cooperation quality software code and GitLab's product is used by NASA, Siemens, Goldman Sachs among other established companies.

Actually, the secret sauce in GitLab's code repository is the company's usage of open source code.

How to put a value on open source code?

Marc Andreessen, if I remember correctly proposes assigning a value of 1 million USD for every software developer a company employs.

And open source can lean on the shoulders of millions of programmers.

So potentially the open source strategy to software application creation, if executed correctly has almost limitless value.

Regarding GitLab, in my personal opinion the company could end up being worth more than 100 billion USD 12 years from now.

Bitcoin Simply Offers Too Much Efficiencies to Go Extinct

Bitcoin's price could well fall below 20 000 for some time in the short term.

But algorithms and especially the blockchain algorithm creating Bitcoin just provide too much value creation to die out due to lack of usefulness.

Bitcoin is quite simply the future of money. USD 2.0.

Many people doubted cell communications will take off, but o, boy they did!

And via Bitcoin one can transfer value which governments will find much more difficult, almost impossible to get their hands on.

Bitcoin Will Survive. Bitcoin And Other Cryptocurrencies' Prices Will Increase Multiple-fold

Bitcoin's price is hovering around 20 000 USD.

My forecast is that Bitcoin will survive, prosper, change the world and the blockchain algorithm underlying Bitcoin will enhance the world's wealth in proportions not seen for a long time.

Most other cryptocurrencies's prices will also increase multiple fold form current levels.

Why? I think Bitcoin, blockchain and crypto are a good way transfer, store and account for wealth. Crypto saves people time, money and effort. All a product of the most limited resource of all -> time.

People are still mortal after all.

Yes, Seth Klarman and Warren Buffett have said that there are no cash flows underlying Bitcoin.

But Warren Buffett has said that "derivatives are weapons of mass destruction". And the company he controls and manages Berkshire Hathaway has huge positions in derivatives. Berkshire has investments in Amazon, Apple, Snowflake and Nubank, which is basically a crypto bank.

Mr Buffett seems quite flexible. 

Agile as is modern to say.

GitLab's Cloud Offering

GitLab provides am open source based code repository that facilitates teamwork and software code production.

Until recently GitLab was valued at more than the 7.5 billion USD Microsoft paid for GitHub.

GitLab's product is used by NASA and Goldman Sachs. GitLab's cloud code repository looks agile, adaptable, scalable, technologically advanced and extremely innovative.

The open source structure of GitLab's cloud product could provide non linear jump like exponential value creation in the future.

Cloud Computing Is Rife For Disruption by Innovative Companies Like GitLab or HashiCorp

Cloud computing is the most exciting market of our time.

Currently, however cloud computing is dominated by Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure an Google Cloud, part of Alphabet Inc, which together hold more than 60 % market share in the cloud.

Cloud computing's yearly revenue is more than 100 billion USD currently and I forecast it could surpass 370 billion USD in revenue in 10 years time. Cloud computing is computing.

That is why, innovative companies like GitLab with its open source approach based code repository and HashiCorp with its modular cloud software structure stand to win a greater market share, which would make them extremely valuable companies, jousting by the market capitalisations of Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet.

"It is not the bigger that eat the smaller, but it is the faster, that eat the slower". Facebook is a case in point.

I would add that the more adaptable will inherit the Earth.

Bitcoin's and Cryptocurrencies' Prices Will Recover

I forecast one Bitcoin will be worth more than 200 000 USD in 10 years time.

The prices of most other cryptocurrencies will recover multiple fold too.

Bitcoin currently makes finance much more efficient.

The blockchain algorithm will soon make all industries much more efficient.

And efficiency means a firm or a human being can produce more output with less input.

Value creation, that is.

How to Disrupt Cloud Computing? GitLab's Open Source Code Approach Is a Possibility

Currently cloud computing is dominated by Amazon's AWS, Microsoft's Azure and Alphabet's Google Cloud.

These three companies are one of the top 5 most valuable companies in the history of the world.

Fighting for market share against them is futile. Or is it?

The only way to disrupt such an oligopoly market is to be innovative. GitLab is trying to do just that, via the open source coding approach it has used for its cloud based, code repository, team collaboration and production software. Which is used by NASA, Goldman Sachs and Siemens among others.

Only by uniting the resources of almost the entire coding community by open source code production GitLab has a chance of changing the current oligopoly state of cloud computing.

Alphabet Inc, the company that owns Google is actually the greatest proponent of open source with its Android mobile operating system, Chromium personal computer operating system and the Kubernetes cluster management system.

It is quite bemusing that the disrupters could end up disrupted with their own weapons.

Cryptocurrency Valuation

Yes, cryptocurrencies do not fit in very well into the traditional discounted cash flows, comparables, asset base and precedents models for valuing an asset.

Normally, by valuing a company, you are "valuing" the future. 

And Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are actually the future, as far as I am concerned.

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are the new way to store, account for and transfer wealth.

Away from the hands of governments.

The blockchain algorithm will change, upend, disrupt everything we know.

Why am I so optimistic on cryptocurrencies?

Because cryptocurrencies save people effort, in other words Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies make humanity more efficient.

I forecast Bitcoin's price will surpass 200 000 USD in 10 years time.

Other, more obscure cryptocurrencies are a leveraged vehicle on Bitcoin and should rise more multiples that the main cryptocurrency.

GitLab Valuation As a IaaS Cloud Computing Market Disrupter

GitLab, the cloud code repository and collaboration service is currently valued at 7.2 billion USD.

GitLab, if it is able to win, let's suppose a 5 % market share in Infrastructure as a Service, IaaS cloud computing could be worth around 270 billion USD in 10 to 15 years time.

Cloud computing, with its more than 100 billion USD yearly revenue run rate is the most exciting market currently, which, according to my estimates could top 500 billion in revenue in 12 years.

IaaS is the largest segment of the cloud computing market. 

If GitLab wins a 5 % market share this would mean 25 billion USD revenue and not less than 5 billion USD profit in year, if one applies a net profit margin of 20 %. Currently, cloud computing is more profitable even.

In this case, GitLab's intrinsic worth is around 270 billion USD in 10 to 15 years, in my personal opinion. 

Short Comments On Elon Musk's Companies

Tesla is worth around 120 billion USD and that is the value of the electric vehicles technology.

Twitter is undervalued. I estimate Twitter is worth 100 billion USD or more than double its current market capitalisation.

SpaceX has limitless potential actually, if managed well.

Snowflake Valuation. 4 June 2022

 

Snowflake Inc., the cloud-computing based data storage and analysis company is currently valued at approximately 41 billion USD.

I estimate Snowflake's intrinsic worth is 100 billion USD in five years time and 200 billion USD in 10 years time.

My assumption, of course is that cloud computing will continue to develop and grow exponentially and that governments will not forcefully force a slowdown in cloud computing, arguably the most exciting market of our time.

I also assume that Snowflake will have around 14 billion USD in revenue and will make 4 billion USD profit a year, 10 years from now. And Snowflake's revenue will still be growing at more than 10 % a year in 10 years time.

So if one applies Price/Earnings multiple of 50, which is reasonable compared to multiples previously applied to Amazon and cloud computing's yearly revenue of more than 100 billion USD currently and projected prolonged period of above 10 % cloud computing revenue growth, this gets Snowflake's market capitalisation to my aforementioned estimate of 200 billion USD in 10 years time.

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has invested more than 1 billion USD in Snowflake Inc.

And yes, I agree with the Oracle of Omaha, a nickname for Warren Buffett.

Clout computing is the future.

Cryptocurrency Valuation. Bitcoin Valuation

I think Bitcoin's price will be more than 200 000 USD in 10 years time.

On average cryptocurrencies' prices should rise more than five fold in 10 years time.

Crypto is disruptive because the government cannot get its hands on it, security agencies cannot track it, cryptocurrencies serve as store of wealth, in the mid term at least, cryptocurrencies can be used as an unit of account and crypto is a means of exchange.

In addition, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies' underlying blockchain algorithm is arguably the greatest innovation in the last twenty years. When implemented, blockchain will change almost every industry and area of modern day life.