Dear Reader,
US stock markets end January 2015 in minus. The correction should exceed 20%, tech and biotech stocks will fall more. EU stocks should finish 2015 in minus as well. Gold should fall with a target of 1050 USD. EUR/USD should touch 1.05 in 2015.
Shale oil and gas plays in the US seem a good value play at these levels, with potential to return multiple on the initial investment. Chinese and India stocks look like a good bet.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
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Disclaimer:
Disclaimer: The blog posts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".
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Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blog posts on this blog and posts on social networks.
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blog post and posts on social networks!
The blog is property of Wolfteam Ltd. www.wolfteamedge.com
Respectfully yours,
Petar Posledovich
Friday, January 30, 2015
Stock Markets, Oil, EUR/USD and Gold!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Friday, January 23, 2015
ECB QE, EUR/USD, US and EU Stocks, US and EU government bonds!
Dear Reader,
The European Central Bank announced full blown Quantitative Easing.
In a previous blogpost(State of Market Affairs!) I forecast the EUR/USD will go to 1.0 in 2 to 3 years. Actually, this could happen in 1 or 2 years. I expect EUR/USD to reach 1.10 in 2015 and in a bear case 1.05 even.
I still forecast that US and eurozone equities will post negative returns in 2015. Yields on eurozone 'periphery' government bonds(Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece etc.) should start rising in the first or second quarter of 2015 at the latest. German government bonds' yields should start increasing in the second half of 2015.
The yields on US treasuries should also start to rise in the second half of 2015 when the Federal Reserve will raise the Federal Funds Rate.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
The European Central Bank announced full blown Quantitative Easing.
In a previous blogpost(State of Market Affairs!) I forecast the EUR/USD will go to 1.0 in 2 to 3 years. Actually, this could happen in 1 or 2 years. I expect EUR/USD to reach 1.10 in 2015 and in a bear case 1.05 even.
I still forecast that US and eurozone equities will post negative returns in 2015. Yields on eurozone 'periphery' government bonds(Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece etc.) should start rising in the first or second quarter of 2015 at the latest. German government bonds' yields should start increasing in the second half of 2015.
The yields on US treasuries should also start to rise in the second half of 2015 when the Federal Reserve will raise the Federal Funds Rate.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Friday, January 16, 2015
Stock markets, ECB QE, Commodities and EUR/USD!
Dear Reader,
Did the US stock market correction(I forecast a fall of more than 20%) start this week? It is possible. I expect a fall of circa 30% for the major indices in 2015 or 2016 at the latest. Tech and biotech stocks should decline more than 30%. Energy and metals and mining stocks should also post large losses. Financials seem weak as well.
Will the European Central Bank announce a quantitative easing(QE) program next week(buy trillions of eurozone government bonds)? I am against the consensus here. I believe the European Central Bank will either postpone the QE or announce a lower amount than market expectations: less than 500 billion euros.
Gold is making gains this year. Personally, I think gold will post negative returns in 2015. In the long run, up to 2019, gold should fall to 750-800 USD. It is possible that oil is close to a bottom. Copper can fall more.
EUR/USD should reach 1.10 in by the end of the year. I believe eurozone(DE, FR, UK etc.) stocks will fall in 2015.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Did the US stock market correction(I forecast a fall of more than 20%) start this week? It is possible. I expect a fall of circa 30% for the major indices in 2015 or 2016 at the latest. Tech and biotech stocks should decline more than 30%. Energy and metals and mining stocks should also post large losses. Financials seem weak as well.
Will the European Central Bank announce a quantitative easing(QE) program next week(buy trillions of eurozone government bonds)? I am against the consensus here. I believe the European Central Bank will either postpone the QE or announce a lower amount than market expectations: less than 500 billion euros.
Gold is making gains this year. Personally, I think gold will post negative returns in 2015. In the long run, up to 2019, gold should fall to 750-800 USD. It is possible that oil is close to a bottom. Copper can fall more.
EUR/USD should reach 1.10 in by the end of the year. I believe eurozone(DE, FR, UK etc.) stocks will fall in 2015.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Friday, January 9, 2015
US and EU Stock markets, Gold and Oil!
Dear Reader,
US and eurozone stock markets wobbled in the beginning of 2015. Personally, I think this is a sign of things to come. US and eurozone stock markets should post negative returns for 2015. Oil is close to finding a bottom. Tech stocks seem vulnerable. Apple, for example is in a correction territory. Apple, in particular, could suffer if the economy slows down due to its focus on the upper-intermediate segment.
Twitter, LinkedIn and Facebook are other candidates for a steep fall. Golds stocks seem good short bets at the current levels, since I think gold is about to post a steep drop in 1-2 years.
Eurozone 'periphery' yields(Spain and Italy) gyrate since 1 January on Greece. I think Spanish and Italian yields should start rising within the first two quarters of 2015.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Friday, January 2, 2015
Currencies, Oil and US stocks!
Dear Reader,
Happy New Year!
Regarding markets, the yen is likely going to get to 125 USD/YEN sooner than I predicted(in one year...see previous posts).
The euro is already very close to 1.20 EUR/USD.
Eurozone government bond yields are at record lows and they should increase in the midterm.
Shale oil and gas companies look interesting at the current valuations. The price of oil fell precipitously, so it is likely that it will recover quickly(v-shaped recovery). If the price of oil rises abruptly, the shale oil and gas companies could turn into a great investment.
The US stock market rally should go on for a while, before a likely bear market ensues.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Happy New Year!
Regarding markets, the yen is likely going to get to 125 USD/YEN sooner than I predicted(in one year...see previous posts).
The euro is already very close to 1.20 EUR/USD.
Eurozone government bond yields are at record lows and they should increase in the midterm.
Shale oil and gas companies look interesting at the current valuations. The price of oil fell precipitously, so it is likely that it will recover quickly(v-shaped recovery). If the price of oil rises abruptly, the shale oil and gas companies could turn into a great investment.
The US stock market rally should go on for a while, before a likely bear market ensues.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
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