Dear Reader,
Dow Jones Industrial Average broke through 18 000 points. The (Christmas) rally goes on. As I have stated many times in the blog, I expect a correction of >20% for the S&P 500 and even more for the Nasdaq in 2015 or 2016 at the latest.
That said, I predict the correction will not be abrupt, but gradual. So it should be a good idea to have a basket of predominantly value stocks and some tech stocks in the mean time.
The German bonds are trading at 'ridiculous' yields. I expect their yields to go up in the long-run. For now, however, they could be stuck in a tight trading range. The short to midterm US government bonds with maturity less than 5 years should sell off before/shortly after the Federal Reserve hikes the Federal Funds Rate.
I expect China to ride smoothly through the Federal Reserve tightening cycle. The Chinese economy has critical mass already, that should allow it to sustainably develop with the help of domestic consumption. India should also cope well with the Fed tightening. Brazil should have a mixed experience.
Disclaimer: This article is provided solely for informational
purposes, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or
sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost are the
author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of
Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost!
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Disclaimer:
Disclaimer: The blog posts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".
The blog is stocks analysis and valuation, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, Artificial Intelligence, AI, deep-learning focused. Independent, unbiased AI insights.
Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blog posts on this blog and posts on social networks.
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blog post and posts on social networks!
The blog is property of Wolfteam Ltd. www.wolfteamedge.com
Respectfully yours,
Petar Posledovich
Friday, December 26, 2014
Stocks, Bonds and Emerging Markets!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Sunday, December 21, 2014
Oil, (Tech) Stocks!
Dear Reader,
The Federal Reserve helped markets recover last week. The shale oil and gas companies recovered clocking in 20% gains or more in some cases. Oil also bounced back. The stocks of some of the smallest shale and gas companies have recorded huge losses in excess of 70% from their June 2014 values. If the oil price recovers, they will make hundreds of percents gains from the current level.
Personally, I believe the price of WTI oil will recover to 90 USD in 3-4 years. The latest decline is just too steep. The US and global economy is slowly, but confidently recovering. The production has not increased by so much, as to explain the recent price oil price drop of nearly 50%.
As regards to the stock market, the Federal Reserve will soon raise rates, which should act as a catalyst for a bear market(>20% price drop). However, the stock market will recover relatively quickly from the bear market I foresee. The valuations are just not that stretched, apart from the technology and biotech sector.
In the tech sector, however, there are some secular forces(worldwide internet adoption) that should help prices recover in the midterm after an eventual sharp drop.
Disclaimer: This article is provided solely for informational purposes, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost!
The Federal Reserve helped markets recover last week. The shale oil and gas companies recovered clocking in 20% gains or more in some cases. Oil also bounced back. The stocks of some of the smallest shale and gas companies have recorded huge losses in excess of 70% from their June 2014 values. If the oil price recovers, they will make hundreds of percents gains from the current level.
Personally, I believe the price of WTI oil will recover to 90 USD in 3-4 years. The latest decline is just too steep. The US and global economy is slowly, but confidently recovering. The production has not increased by so much, as to explain the recent price oil price drop of nearly 50%.
As regards to the stock market, the Federal Reserve will soon raise rates, which should act as a catalyst for a bear market(>20% price drop). However, the stock market will recover relatively quickly from the bear market I foresee. The valuations are just not that stretched, apart from the technology and biotech sector.
In the tech sector, however, there are some secular forces(worldwide internet adoption) that should help prices recover in the midterm after an eventual sharp drop.
Disclaimer: This article is provided solely for informational purposes, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Saturday, December 13, 2014
US Stocks, Oil!
Dear Reader,
The US stock markets wobbled this week. It is interesting whether this would be a start of a correction. The tech stock IPO party seems in full swing. Companies are valued billions and they are making losses... I am of the opinion this would not continue indefinitely.
Oil, on the other hand, seems oversold. If you are willing to hold oil stocks for 1-2 years they seem a good value play, at least the majors. If the shale companies survive, entering at the current levels would bring multiples of the initial investment.
Disclaimer: This article is provided solely for informational purposes, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost!
The US stock markets wobbled this week. It is interesting whether this would be a start of a correction. The tech stock IPO party seems in full swing. Companies are valued billions and they are making losses... I am of the opinion this would not continue indefinitely.
Oil, on the other hand, seems oversold. If you are willing to hold oil stocks for 1-2 years they seem a good value play, at least the majors. If the shale companies survive, entering at the current levels would bring multiples of the initial investment.
Disclaimer: This article is provided solely for informational purposes, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Friday, December 5, 2014
Central banks, gold and equities!
Dear Reader,
My call on gold from the previous week did not turn out so well in the short run. Gold actually rose. In the long run, however, I am of the opinion that gold could fall to 700 - 800 USD.
Regarding Central banks, I believe the European Central Bank will start eurozone government bonds purchases in the second half of the year, if at all(!). The Federal Reserve could start to raise the Federal Funds Rate from the second half of 2015 with 0.25% from every meeting. I believe prices of eurozone government bonds will fall along with US treasuries and the respective yields will rise.
Somewhere in 2015, the US equity markets could enter a bear market(>20% fall). Actually, the market overall does not seem to be in a bubble state, but some sectors like Technology and Biotech definitely seem overvalued. The overall US economy, however, is quite fragile in my opinion...
The Chinese equity market is an interesting story. I believe the rally should extent into the first quarter of 2015!
Disclaimer: This article is provided solely for informational purposes, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
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