Dear Reader,
US equities could suffer a 10% correction in 2017. The valuations seem quite high. If Donald Trump does not manage to push through the deregulation of the financial sector I think US financials could fall more than 10%.
Gold should fall to 1050 USD in 2017. I cannot see gold rising, while the Federal Reserve is hiking rates.
US WTI Oil should fall close to 35 USD in 2017. Global demand is just too weak. China is slowing down, Europe's growth is anemic, US growth also.
China equities seem like a good investment as regards their valuations. India stocks should perform well, as India is growing strongly.
Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Amazon could rise more.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
Stocks valuations, analysis. Unbiased. Insightful. Property of Wolfteam Ltd., www.wolfteamedge.com If you find the blog useful, LINK TO www.posledovich.blogspot.com Stocks, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, AI, analysis, insights. CLICK ADVERTISEMENTS, SHARE ON SOCIAL NETWORKS! Technology, Bitcoin, AI, company strategy, stocks analysis. Stocks, crypto involve high RISK! Nothing on this blog is meant or should be construed as investment recommendation to buy or sell securities or their derivatives!
Disclaimer:
Disclaimer: The blog posts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".
The blog is stocks analysis and valuation, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, Artificial Intelligence, AI, deep-learning focused. Independent, unbiased AI insights.
Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blog posts on this blog and posts on social networks.
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blog post and posts on social networks!
The blog is property of Wolfteam Ltd. www.wolfteamedge.com
Respectfully yours,
Petar Posledovich
Friday, March 31, 2017
US Stocks, Gold, China, India Equities!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Thursday, March 16, 2017
US, Global Economy, Russia, China India Stocks, Commodities!
Dear Reader,
The Federal Reserve hiked the Federal Funds Rate to 1.00%. The market and the United States central bank expect two more hikes in 2017, altogether three during the current year. I forecast just one more hike. The inflation data will worsen because of the current and future fall of the oil price. The US economy is growing with 1.5% per year. This is far from the economy's potential which I judge is about 3.4% year on year GDP growth.
Stocks have some further upside. The stocks of Brazil and Russia could tumble, because of the fall of the price of oil. Chinese and Indian stocks look like a good investment, because of the growing economies of the two countries.
Oil is set to reach 30 USD around June, July 2017. The global economy is just too weak. I forecast the global GDP will grow by around 3.2% in 2017.
Gold has further to fall. Gold could reach 1050 USD before it rebounds.
I personally like US technology stocks. The mobile, artificial intelligence and cloud boom are set to drive the sector higher. The technology megacaps Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Amazon should outperform. I like chipmakers like AMD, NVDA.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
The Federal Reserve hiked the Federal Funds Rate to 1.00%. The market and the United States central bank expect two more hikes in 2017, altogether three during the current year. I forecast just one more hike. The inflation data will worsen because of the current and future fall of the oil price. The US economy is growing with 1.5% per year. This is far from the economy's potential which I judge is about 3.4% year on year GDP growth.
Stocks have some further upside. The stocks of Brazil and Russia could tumble, because of the fall of the price of oil. Chinese and Indian stocks look like a good investment, because of the growing economies of the two countries.
Oil is set to reach 30 USD around June, July 2017. The global economy is just too weak. I forecast the global GDP will grow by around 3.2% in 2017.
Gold has further to fall. Gold could reach 1050 USD before it rebounds.
I personally like US technology stocks. The mobile, artificial intelligence and cloud boom are set to drive the sector higher. The technology megacaps Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Amazon should outperform. I like chipmakers like AMD, NVDA.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Tuesday, March 14, 2017
US Technology, Financial Stocks, Federal Reserve!
Dear Reader,
My forecast of oil WTI falling to 35-40-45 USD is about to come true. Apparently, the world economy is not strong enough to absorb the spare quantity of oil.
I forecast the Federal reserve will hike the Federal funds rate two times in 2017. Something will eventually get in the way of three hikes as both the market and the central bank forecast.
Technology stocks, while richly valued, will continue to do well. Some bubbles like GoPro, Fuel GroupOn, Twitter etc. have popped, but many remain.
I personally like chip manufacturers like AMD and NVDA and cloud companies like BOX.
APPLE, Microsoft, AMZN, Google and Facebook should continue their march higher. These five companies have changed the world in a remarkable way. Technologies of the future are machine learning and cloud computing.
The US financials stocks run has gone quite far, I think. The global economy does not feel like 2007-2008 and yet Goldman Sachs' price has exceeded the 2007 high. I think US financials are due for a 10% correction.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
My forecast of oil WTI falling to 35-40-45 USD is about to come true. Apparently, the world economy is not strong enough to absorb the spare quantity of oil.
I forecast the Federal reserve will hike the Federal funds rate two times in 2017. Something will eventually get in the way of three hikes as both the market and the central bank forecast.
Technology stocks, while richly valued, will continue to do well. Some bubbles like GoPro, Fuel GroupOn, Twitter etc. have popped, but many remain.
I personally like chip manufacturers like AMD and NVDA and cloud companies like BOX.
APPLE, Microsoft, AMZN, Google and Facebook should continue their march higher. These five companies have changed the world in a remarkable way. Technologies of the future are machine learning and cloud computing.
The US financials stocks run has gone quite far, I think. The global economy does not feel like 2007-2008 and yet Goldman Sachs' price has exceeded the 2007 high. I think US financials are due for a 10% correction.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Friday, March 10, 2017
US Stocks, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank!
Dear Reader,
US stocks wobbled during the last several trading days. I think the US stocks rally is still intact. As evidenced by the nonfarm payrolls report from today the US economy is doing well.
I still think the Federal Reserve could do two Federal Funds Rate hikes in 2017, which is still a lot. If the Fed hikes twice, I forecast the US GDP growth rate year on year will fall below 1.00%. If they hike three times or more the US economy could go into a recession.
Many market observers interpret the ECB's President Mario Draghi press conference this Thursday as hawkish. On the contrary, I think it was actually quite dovish. He spoke hawkishly, but acted dovishly. I think deeds speak louder than words in this case. I expect the yield on the ten year German governent bond to fall close to zero in the next several months.
My prediction that oil could fall to 45 USD WTI seems to be coming true. The fracking costs per barrel are now close to 30 USD, so the price could fall to 35-40 WTI USD even. Oil stocks could get hurt. If the Fed hikes rates aggressively this would hurt high yield bonds issuers as the fracking companies and topple the US economy in recession.
I think the price of gold could find a bottom at 1150 USD pre troy ounce.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
US stocks wobbled during the last several trading days. I think the US stocks rally is still intact. As evidenced by the nonfarm payrolls report from today the US economy is doing well.
I still think the Federal Reserve could do two Federal Funds Rate hikes in 2017, which is still a lot. If the Fed hikes twice, I forecast the US GDP growth rate year on year will fall below 1.00%. If they hike three times or more the US economy could go into a recession.
Many market observers interpret the ECB's President Mario Draghi press conference this Thursday as hawkish. On the contrary, I think it was actually quite dovish. He spoke hawkishly, but acted dovishly. I think deeds speak louder than words in this case. I expect the yield on the ten year German governent bond to fall close to zero in the next several months.
My prediction that oil could fall to 45 USD WTI seems to be coming true. The fracking costs per barrel are now close to 30 USD, so the price could fall to 35-40 WTI USD even. Oil stocks could get hurt. If the Fed hikes rates aggressively this would hurt high yield bonds issuers as the fracking companies and topple the US economy in recession.
I think the price of gold could find a bottom at 1150 USD pre troy ounce.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Friday, March 3, 2017
Snapchat, Technology Stocks, Emerging Markets Stocks, Commodity Stocks!
Dear Reader,
Snapchat Inc.(SNAP) is trading at Prices/Sales 60 - a ridiculous valuation. Many technology stocks are in a bubble, but driven by smartphones, cloud services and artificial intelligence, the tech boom is set to continue.
Oil is to fall to 45 USD driven by US shale drilling. Large cap oil stocks could fall 10 -20%, oil frackers more than 30-40%.
Brazil, Russia, India and China stocks are undervalued. Emerging markets are now self-sustaining. Emerging markets stocks are to embark on a long term bull market, despite the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates. Many large emerging markets are pursuing market friendly reforms which could bring long term prosperity.
Gold is to rise, despite the Federal Reserve hiking the Federal Funds Rate. European stocks are undervalued, but I do not see European economic growth accelerating much. Too many structural reforms have to be undertaken in order for Europe to grow above potential.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
Snapchat Inc.(SNAP) is trading at Prices/Sales 60 - a ridiculous valuation. Many technology stocks are in a bubble, but driven by smartphones, cloud services and artificial intelligence, the tech boom is set to continue.
Oil is to fall to 45 USD driven by US shale drilling. Large cap oil stocks could fall 10 -20%, oil frackers more than 30-40%.
Brazil, Russia, India and China stocks are undervalued. Emerging markets are now self-sustaining. Emerging markets stocks are to embark on a long term bull market, despite the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates. Many large emerging markets are pursuing market friendly reforms which could bring long term prosperity.
Gold is to rise, despite the Federal Reserve hiking the Federal Funds Rate. European stocks are undervalued, but I do not see European economic growth accelerating much. Too many structural reforms have to be undertaken in order for Europe to grow above potential.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Wednesday, March 1, 2017
US Technology Stocks, Japanese Stocks, Commodities, Federal Reserve!
Dear Reader,
The probability for a hike in the Federal Funds Rate come 15 March by the Federal Reserve is 80%. I still doubt the Federal Reserve will hike the FFR three times in 2017, but two hikes now seems quite likely.
US and global technology stocks should continue their march higher, I personally like AMD and BOX. AMD is making inroads in high technology processors, while BOX is at the forefront of the cloud services revolution. Just look at what happened when Amazon Web Services was down yesterday - thousands of sites that relied on AWS went down.
Oil is to remain in a tight range between 50 to 60 USD, so oil stocks have some upside 15-20% from the current levels.
Gold seems undervalued at the moment, provided the Federal Reserve is not too hawkish, so gold stocks stand to benefit.
The USD should strengthen to the Japanese YEN, so Japanese stocks could rise by 10-15%.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
The probability for a hike in the Federal Funds Rate come 15 March by the Federal Reserve is 80%. I still doubt the Federal Reserve will hike the FFR three times in 2017, but two hikes now seems quite likely.
US and global technology stocks should continue their march higher, I personally like AMD and BOX. AMD is making inroads in high technology processors, while BOX is at the forefront of the cloud services revolution. Just look at what happened when Amazon Web Services was down yesterday - thousands of sites that relied on AWS went down.
Oil is to remain in a tight range between 50 to 60 USD, so oil stocks have some upside 15-20% from the current levels.
Gold seems undervalued at the moment, provided the Federal Reserve is not too hawkish, so gold stocks stand to benefit.
The USD should strengthen to the Japanese YEN, so Japanese stocks could rise by 10-15%.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
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