Disclaimer:

Disclaimer: The blog posts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is". The blog is stocks analysis and valuation, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, Artificial Intelligence, AI, deep-learning focused. Independent, unbiased AI insights. Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blog posts on this blog and posts on social networks. Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blog post and posts on social networks! The blog is property of Wolfteam Ltd. www.wolfteamedge.com Respectfully yours, Petar Posledovich

Wednesday, May 31, 2023

Bitcoin And The Debt Ceiling


If there is a Debt Ceiling deal, Bitcoin's price could rise by a not small amount, along with technology stocks.

Markets do not like uncertainty and if there is agreement, assets considered as risky will rise, according to Wolfteam Ltd.

Most of the investors in Bitcoin are financiers and technologists and this is normal, since Bitcoin is fintech, basically. Financiers and technologists are not risk averse, so there is a significant probability that that kind of smart money will return to cryptocurrencies investing, if a Debt Ceiling agreement is reached.

Wolfteam Ltd.'s forecast is that an agreement regarding US government debt is reached.

Debt Ceiling Discussions And Stocks



Debt Ceiling talks will be successful is Wolfteam Ltd’s  www.wolfteamedge.com opinion.

Brinkmanship helps no one. 

And stocks can rise by not a small margin afterwards.

Tuesday, May 30, 2023

Cloud Computing Stocks


The publicly listed stocks of companies active in cloud computing, or cloud stocks, are still overvalued, despite their large falls in the last 14 months.

Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure and Alphabet's Google Cloud show clearly that cloud computing businesses are the main profit drivers for today's technology companies.

GitLab and Dropbox are undervalued long-term is Wolfteam's corporate opinion.

Both Dropbox and GitLab are smaller cloud computing providers, in cloud storage and Infrastructure as a Services, IaaS cloud computing.

More providers is almost always good for the economy.


www.wolfteamedge.com

Sunday, May 28, 2023

Bitcoin's Idiosyncratic Risk

Bitcoin's price is supposed to move along the lines of small capitalization technology stocks, tech stocks with market capitalization below 2 billion USD, in US terms, that is.

Interestingly enough, Bitcoin is trying to break up the Bitcoin, small cap tech stock correlation or at least the correlation between Bitcoin's price and small cap technology stocks is diminishing as of late.

The main argument for that is that small cap tech stocks are the most hurt in the initial stages of the current dot-com bubble. Adding to that the Silicon Valley Bank debacle explains why people flock to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.

Actually, Bitcoin functions as an independent, distributed, public 'bank'. You store your money there and if one is careful he or she can count that his money will be there when he needs them.

 

www.wolfteamedge.com


Saturday, May 27, 2023

AI Strategy


 

NVIDIA Inc is all over the news as the poster child of artificial intelligence, AI, because of stock price's meteoric price and NVIDIA's market capitalization nearing 1 trillion USD.

NVIDIA is overvalued, according to Wolfteam Ltd. That said, every company, even outside technology, puts artificial intelligence, AI in its investor presentations and earnings presentations, much like during the 1998-2001 dot-com boom and bust almost every company from all sectors of the economy wanted to present itself as a technology company to get technology company valuation metrics or come near it, at least.

And AI is technology today.

Artificial Intelligence, AI will change the future, but not as quickly as the stock market implies.

The main thing in order to develop AI is to hire mathematicians, economists and software engineers of exceptional quality.

It is interesting what Elon Musk is saying. Elon Musk has said that the future (almost all) value of Tesla depends (almost entirely) on Tesla developing successful self-driving cars technology.

Does this imply that Tesla Inc is worthless now, because it does not have a 100 % viable autopilot technology?

Actually, I think Tesla's intrinsic worth is around 170 billion USD mainly because of the quality of its AI, engineering workforce.

AI should be developed carefully, because a spectacular failure of AI technology would set back artificial intelligence many, many years.



Friday, May 26, 2023

Alphabet Inc, Google Owner Valuation

 


Alphabet Inc, Google and YouTube owner's intrinsic value is 4.5 trillion USD, according to Wolfteam Ltd., compared to 1.57 trillion USD current market capitalization of the company owning Google.

4.5 trillion USD is a staggering huge number, but Alphabet Inc has so much information with Google, YouTube and its other internet properties.

There were some management issues at Alphabet Inc, which were and are being cleaned up. So I expect Google and YouTube's treasure trove of information to be monetized and unlocked to much closer extent to its full potential.

Information is, almost, priceless and Alphabet Inc, Facebook, Amazon, Yandex, Baidu Inc and most internet giants have exceptional amounts of information on everybody and on almost all firms.

Thursday, May 25, 2023

Bitcoin In Times Of Uncertainty



 

Bitcoin is a very risky asset and Bitcoin's price will fall in times of uncertainty and havoc, that was the story, at least.

Year 2023 to date and since the Russian Ukraine conflict Bitcoin disproves the narrative that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies prices will fall in times of uncertainty.

Even as the United States Dollar is appreciating.

There are several reasons/factors that explain this:

1) Millennials, 1981-1992 have recognized Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, crypto and think Bitcoin is a viable asset to invest in. And since most millennials have not witnessed in their accounts a large stock market fall, they view every large fall in Bitcoin's price as crypto on sale. Actually, I am from the older millennials, born 1982, so I am a bit more risk averse. I have seen, very large draw-downs, in my investment account in 2008-2009.

2) Bitcoin is seen an electronic substitute for gold, which is also electronically traded on the foreign exchange spot markets.

3) Bitcoin is slowly chipping away at the USD status as global reserve currency

4) People, millennials in particular, do not trust the governments and government institutions

5) Bitcoin is a more tacit way to transfer money

6) Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies provide a new form of money, which saves people and firms time, effort and money

7) Bitcoin is the epitome of technology. Financial technology, fintech, that is. And thus the single new asset class created in decades. The epitome of finance, that is?


Salesforce Valuation

 


Salesforce Inc's intrinsic value is 140 billion USD, compared to its current approximately 250 billion USD market capitalization.

Salesforce profitability fell from 20 % + net profit margin in previous years to circa 5 % in 2022.

Salesforce was a revenue growth story, but coupled with high net profit margin, which is rare for growing technology companies.

Now that Salesforce is only slightly profitable 140 billion USD seems and adequate intrinsic value for Salesforce Inc, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s corporate opinion.

Wednesday, May 24, 2023

Is Palantir Overvalued?


 

In the short-term Palantir, the AI, data analysis company is overvalued, but in the long-term, not so much is Wolfteam |Ltd.'s www.wolfteamedge.com corporate opinion. Palantir's AI products offering and Palantir itself could well proved undervalued.

Artificial intelligence or AI is the future, but Palantir, looked through the current valuation multiples, even for growing technology multiples, seems overvalued.

In the long-run Palantir may well become a 100 billion USD + market capitalization company, but now investors and analysts imply too high both revenue growth and net profitability is Wolfteam Ltd.'s opinion.


Tuesday, May 23, 2023

Bitcoin As A Substitute of Gold, USD


 

Bitcoin's price, remarkably has risen year 2023 to date, while Gold's price has only slightly increased, while USD has weakened.

Bitcoin is showing remarkable resilience, agility, anti-fragility in the face of adversity.

All this is due to Bitcoin's distributed decision making feature is Wolfteam Ltd.'s corporate opinion.


Monday, May 22, 2023

Starbucks Corp Valuation


 

Starbucks Corp, the coffee company should be trading, based on its fundamentals, at 2.2 times its current market capitalization of circa 121 billion USD.

Coffee consumption is important for dealing with daily challenges.

Starbucks' revenue is growing with more than 10 % year on year on an yearly basis and Starbucks is comfortably profitable.

Starbucks is undervalued due to future growth prospects, the value of drinking coffee and the social effect of people drinking coffees in large Starbucks saloons.


Sunday, May 21, 2023

Artificial Intelligence, AI Stocks


Artificial Intelligence, AI stocks NVIDIA, Amazon, Microsoft are overvalued by respectively 70 % , 35 % and 28 % in the mid-term, but undervalued in the long-term due to AI's both efficiency and value creation potential.

Saturday, May 20, 2023

Apple Market Capitalization If China And Taiwan Start Hostilities Among Them


 

If China attacks militarily Taiwan Apple's market capitalization could fall by more than 70 %.

In one month Apple's market capitalization could go below 1 trillion USD is Wolfteam Ltd.'s corporate opinion.

And this is only because there are circuit breakers if individual stocks fall by a certain amount.

Apple Inc, would adapt quickly though, I estimate.



Friday, May 19, 2023

Snowflake Inc Valuation

 


Snowflake Inc, the big data analysis company's intrinsic worth is 90 billion USD compared to 59.90 billion USD current market capitalization if it achieves a 10 % net profit margin a year in the next 5 years.

If Snowflake Inc's currently negative circa (-) 35 % net profit margin turns into a 20 % + net profit margin, Snowflake will be worth 400 billion USD due to big data and cloud computing's huge future potential is Wolfteam Ltd.'s corporate estimate.


All opinions and estimates in blog posts  are Wolfteam Ltd. and its representative's.

www.wolfteamedge.com





Thursday, May 18, 2023

Uber Technologies Inc Valuation

 

Uber Technologies Inc, the ride sharing company, is fairly valued, according to Wolfteam Ltd. corporate opinion.

Revenue is growing fast, but Uber Technologies Inc is loosing a lot of money reporting a huge profit margin.


Wednesday, May 17, 2023

Block Inc Valuation

                   

Block Inc, formerly Square Inc is undervalued to the extent it can rise multiple times from the current stock price and market capitalization of 33.60 billion USD.

Block Inc's revenue for the first quarter of 2023 grew by circa 26 % year on year with almost break even profit results.

Block's newest Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies focus seems to be a viable future growth engine for both Block Inc's revenue and earnings is Wolfteam Ltd. corporate opinion.


www.wolfteamedge.com

Tuesday, May 16, 2023

Dropbox Valuation. 2023


 

Dropbox Inc, at the current 7.9 billion USD market capitalization is undervalued, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s corporate opinion.

Cloud computing is the future of computing and thus part of the future of humanity.

Dropbox Inc's revenue grew 8.66 % year on year in 1Q2023, so Dropbox's business is still growing.

The main reason Dropbox is undervalued, Wolfteam Ltd. estimates, is the competition from similar cloud services of leading technology companies like Apple, Alphabet(Google cloud) and Microsoft.

Cloud computing could soon be 700 billion USD annual revenue market. Dropbox's strategy makes the company perfectly positioned to benefit extraordinarily form the cloud mega trend and unlock Dropbox's significant hidden value.


Monday, May 15, 2023

Visa Valuation

 


Visa Inc, the credit card and basically a financial technology, fintech company is trading at circa 475 billion USD market capitalization. Which is a huge market capitalization value.

In short, Visa Inc is overvalued is Wolfteam Ltd.'s corporate view.

Visa exhibits staggering net profit margins at around 50 %, having in mind that most fintech companies are losing huge amount of money.

But still at a Price/Earnings of circa 31 and Price Sales of approximately 16 Visa Inc seems overvalued.

Even though fintech is a large part of the future of finance and ultimately the global economy.

That said, if Visa's revenue goes on growing by more than 20 % as it did in 2022, Visa could soon grow into its valuation.


Sunday, May 14, 2023

Gold Is Undervalued. Is This Due To Bitcoin?

     


 

Gold is strangely undervalued is Wolfteam Ltd.'s corporate opinion.

Along with gold, silver and gold stocks, silver stocks and precious metals miners are undervalued.

There are 10 trillion + USD of outstanding created/printed money by global central banks, compared to 14 years ago.

Due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, there is significant global risk aversion currenlty. To that political instability should be added. Add to that record buying by central banks and individuals buying more and more gold to safe harbor their savings.

Interest rates have risen, but the other mentioned factors in the past have almost always outweighed higher interest rates.

One possible reason for gold's undervaluation is Bitcoin, which acts as substitute for gold as far as money transfer, Bitcoin/gold spot trading that is, and store of wealth is concerned. Here classic money functions like means of payment and unit of account should be added.

In my opinion, absent Bitcoin and possible other hidden factors, gold troy ounce's spot/futures price should be something like 3 700 USD.

Gold and silver are undervalued, according to Wolfteam Ltd

It would be interesting for how long this glaring undervaluation, in my opinion as sole proprietor of Wolfteam Ltd., will continue?

You could express opinions in forum comments under this blog post?


www.wolfteamedge.com

Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies Stocks


 

The most popular Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies stocks are Coinbase, Robinhood Markets.

Both have significant Bitcoin, Ethereum and cryptocurrencies trading business exposure.

And both Coinbase and Robinhood Markets are significantly undervalued.

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies will thrive is Wolfteam Ltd. corporate opinion.


www.wolfteamedge.com

Friday, May 12, 2023

Gaming Stocks Prospects

 


Gaming stocks in general hold exceptional long-term potential is Wolfteam Ltd.'s corporate view.

Mainly due to the Metaverse

Facebook, now Meta's founder Mark Zuckerberg is right to bet so heavily on the Metaverse, I think.

It would just take time. It took the Internet around 40 years to become mainstream and commercially viable.

But the ones with first mover advantage will gain a lot if their strategy is executed right.


Coinbase Valuation. If Bitcoin Survives And Prospers



If Bitcoin survives, but does not become mainstream, I forecast Coinbase Global Inc's intrinsic value at 40 billion USD.

If Bitcoin takes 10 % -17 % of the global payments market and becomes a partial, between 3 % -5 % of reserves, global reserve currency, Coinbase will be worth 120 billion USD.

If Bitcoin prospers and becomes a real, viable reserve currency with 10 % - 14 % of global invested reserves value, Coinbase could be worth between 320 billion USD and 1.4 trillion USD due to its first mover, economic moat advantage.

According to Wolfteam Ltd.'s estimates, Coinbase Global Inc's intrinsic value is 250 billion USD.


www.wolfteamedge.com

M&A, Capital, Value

Thursday, May 11, 2023

GitLab is Undervalued



In a mildly positive case GitLab’s intrinsic value is 45 billion USD.

In case of huge success GitLab could be worth more than 70 billion USD in 10 years.

Currently, there is a duopoly between GitHub and GitLab in code writing, repository cooperation, which is a very large part of Infrastructure as a Service, IaaS, cloud computing market. In 7 years IaaS is expected to bring more than 3000 billion in USD in terms of global market revenue.

Wednesday, May 10, 2023

Palantir First Quarter 2023 Earnings. A Valuation

 


Palantir Inc., the AI company, reported circa 19 million USD of profit for Q12023.

On revenue for for Q12023 of 525 million USD, 18 % year on year growth.

Palantir is one of the few cloud AI companies to report quarterly growth, year on year for the last two consecutive reported quarters.

Palantir, the leading artificial intelligence, AI scalable product company has a market capitalization of 20 billion USD.

Palantir's intrinsic worth is around 50 billion, according to my firm Wolfteam Ltd.'s estimates.


www.wolfteamedge.com

Apple Shift Toward Services Strategy

 



Apple Inc, the iPhone designer and manufacturer, has been trying to shift its business model more towards services.

Apple's shifts towards services strategy has shown positive results so far.

But still around 74 % of Apple's overall revenue for the last reported second quarter of 2023 comes from the hardware products as iPhone, iPad, Macintosh.

And the services revenue is concentrated relatively more in income from electronic games from the App Store.

Actually, to sell more services Apple Inc needs to realize a jump in iPad sales is Wolfteam Ltd.'s corporate opinion.

For two reasons mainly. Services revenue from App Store could be increased if consumers play video games or use applications on a larger screen than iPhone.

iPad may not be able to fully replace computers, but still many tasks can be done on an iPad.

And Apple has to find a way to attract even more software developers to its platforms.

 

www.wolfteamedge.com


Tuesday, May 9, 2023

Google, Alphabet Valuation. Also On ChatGPT Threat.

 

Alphabet Inc, the Google search engine producer, is currently valued at 1.37 trillion USD on the Nasdaq.

Alphabet Inc.'s intrinsic value is 2.2 trillion USD, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s estimates.

ChatGPT I have a used a bit. ChatGPT's technology is very good, but not too extraordinary.

I doubt ChatGPT is an iPhone moment. I may be proven wrong, of course. Things change. Constantly.

Microsoft is a big corporation which has its own problems. They had good management recently and ChatGPT appeared.

On the contrary, there we imperfect management practices in Alphabet Inc. Google's maker recently.

It is not unnatural for young multi-billionaires, 'masters of the universe' to feel too confident.

But Alphabet is still a great, thinking, lean, surviving, agile organism.

Top of the notch innovations usually come from small to medium sized companies, history has shown.

Apple was a bit different, since it was already established. It also had management problems, but Apple Inc reformed and ... the iPhone and iPad were born.

 

To have innovation, one of the most important things is for your employees to trust you, in my opinion. You have to be a good manager, that is.


wwww.wolfteamedge.com

Crypto Is Undervalued On Finance Disruption

 

Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies hold huge unlocked value is Wolfteam Ltd's corporate view and Petar Posledovich's personal opinion.

Crypto could potentially disrupt, at least partially, payments, which is doing currently, asset management, private equity, venture capital, foreign exchange trading and traditional corporate and retail banking.

The Blockchain algorithm would change, at least partially and improve almost all industries.

Crypto is just too quick, efficient and agile. For now, at least.


www.wolfteamedge.com

The Most Exciting Industry

 

An article in a popular news site read something like this:  "If you want to be a trillionaire, try space mining."

It has been a known fact asteroids contain huge deposits of iron ore, gold, silver, base metals, diamonds etc.

This can help partly explain the stratospheric valuation multiples of companies like SpaceX, Virgin Galactic, Blue Origin, Intuitive Machines etc.

The promise of space is huge.

The next technology frontier is space. Artificial intelligence is a tool towards space, I think.

Both Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos' projections of travel, working and living on Mars and the Moon are quite optimistic, is Wolfteam Ltd.'s corporate valuation, view and evaluation.

In most cases, 'space is the final frontier' and sooner or later it would not be created and worked upon/in only 'in a Hollywood basement'.


Sunday, May 7, 2023

Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc New Space Launch Attempts

 


Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc is aiming to finally launch its space tourism program.

Virgin Galactic is currently valued at 1.02 billion USD.

If there is substance to Virgin Galactic Inc.'s claim of relatively recent start of mass space tourism flights, NYSE Ticker SPCE, Virgin Galactic's market capitalization could skyrocket 10 times from current levels is Wolfteam Ltd.'s corporate view.



Saturday, May 6, 2023

Are We Currently In a Financial Crisis?

 ]

Yes. As sole proprietor and managing director of Wolfteam Ltd., I am of the opinion that we are in the midst of a financial crisis even bigger than the Great Depression.

Certainly, the current financial havoc is much bigger than the Great Recession in 2008, I think. Actually, the US Government 'restated' the statistics and years ago, the last time I checked US GDP in 2009 fell by only 3.1 %. A surprisingly low number, Wolfteam is of the opinion.

We just see the surface now with First Republic, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank's assets combined almost at the same levels of assets than Lehman Brothers.

And only since the beginning of 2023 more than 400 billion USD left the US banking system and went mainly into short-term money market funds. And via the multiplication effect, this would mean trillions of USD were withdrawn from the global banking system.

A huge de facto monetary tightening.

This would not be enough, though. 

The Federal Reserve should lead the pack of the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, The Peoples Republic of China, The Central Bank of the Russian Federation, etc. into mopping up all this excess liquidity.

 

www.wolfteamedge.com


Friday, May 5, 2023

Venture Capital Funds Business Model

 

Currently, as part of my firm, Wolfteam Ltd.'s efforts to raise capital for startups, I gather from many venture capital contacts, technology startup founders, investment bankers, strategy advisers, government officials that venture capital funds now look almost exclusively for net profit earning technology startups in which to invest.

But, I beg your pardon, does not the aforementioned development nullify venture capital funds' existence hypothesis, at all? If I may ask?

Aren't venture capital funds conceived so they can provide a sort of bridge financing for currently loss making small, young technology firms, which built an innovative service, product, hardware with which to disrupt established industries, increase competition and enhance humanity's well being.

A possible answer would be, that angel investors are more suitable for that phase of a startup's life. But there are so many startups, some of them not young any more and quite big mid-sized firms, which are still loss making. And many of them do have excellent products, with huge potential.

So, basically seed and Series A investing is now a huge niche as many of its most recent tenants, venture capital firms have left early stage technology startups investing.

In short, seed and Series A investing is a significant business opportunity currently, according to Wolfteam Ltd.

 

http://wolfteamedge.com/


Spotify Valuation As Of 5th May 2023


 

Spotify currently has a market capitalization of 27.2 billion USD on the NYSE. 

Spotify's intrinsic value is 150 billion USD, according to Wofteam Ltd.

Spotify's revenue grew with double digits in 1Q2023 year on year. Spotify is one of the very few cloud companies which reported rising year on year revenue in the first quarter of 2023.

Furthermore, in a recent quarter Spotify reported net profit, while on average for the last 5 years Spotify's negative margin is only around 5 % on average.

So, if Spotify's revenue goes on growing by more than 10 % year on year, in 7 years Spotify would have 20 billion USD + in revenue. Wolfteam holds the view that with 20 billion USD in revenue, Spotify would be able to post net profit of around 4 billion USD. Which multiplied by 37 Price/Earnings ratio brings Spotify's intrinsic value to 150 billion USD.

And this is a conservative estimate for an essentially cloud company like Spotify. Amazon's Price Earnings ratio currently stands at 252.

If we apply Amazon's relatively recent Price/Earnings multiple of 100, Spotify's value with the above sales and earnings assumptions would be as high as 400 billion USD, for example. That possible estimate is unrealistic, too optimistic, I think, as a sole proprietor and managing director of Wolfteam Ltd.

But still, Spotify is undervalued, I think.


www.wolfteamedge.com



Thursday, May 4, 2023

Bitcoin And Banks. Fintech

 


Bitcoin is expected to dis intermediate banking.

Many financial technology companies or fintechs seem to be using payments' lighter regulator licensing regime to win market share from banks, which pay millions of USDs in licensing fees.

This fintech strategy, of course, tends to create uproar among large and medium sized banks' ranks.

Bitcoin. in order to be a viable payments' transfer means has to exhibit lower volatility, which will come when there is more institutional capital flowing in Bitcoin, which will happen when Bitcoin's volatility is lower.

A classic chicken and egg example.

In any case, governments and central banks should stay away from cryptocurrencies. As a minimum, the law should be obeyed, I think.

Oil Stocks Are Deeply Undervalued. Technology Stocks Are More The 40 % Overevalued


 

Even as the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee, the decision making body for the Federal Reserve, the central bank of the United States, seems to be promising that interest rates levels are not going to go up anymore, oil stocks are multiple fold undervalued, while technology stocks are 40 % + overvalued, as measured by the Nasdaq Composite and Energy sector indices.

The corona virus pandemic pulled forward 10-15 years of potential demand for technology services and products. Much like the dot com bubble over promised on the potential of the internet in the short-term.

Personally, I doubt that mass work from home will endure. 

As for oil stocks, political pressures regarding renewable energy seems to be artificially suppressing the price of oil and natural gas is Wolfteam Ltd.'s house view.

Companies like Exxon Mobil, British Petroleum, Royal Dutch Shell, Marathon Oil, Petroleo Brasileiro, Occidental Petroleum, Devon Energy, Chevron should double in price to get close to their intrinsic value, according to my estimations.

 

www.wolfteamedge.com

M&A, Capital, Valuations

Wednesday, May 3, 2023

Tesla Valuation In The Current Financial Turmoil. Electric Cars Price Contest



Tesla Inc. has been cutting the prices of its electric vehicles.

A possible intention could be to wage a price war on its competitors and take a dominant share of the electric car market. I personally think the car market for electric vehicles would remain a niche part of the overall automobile market.

But the niche could become 20 % of the total car market.

The subsidies for electric vehicles of 7 500 USD were cut recently for many automobile producers' car models.

So, consumers globally are about to witness a price competition between electric vehicle manufacturers, it seems.

Tesla, of course, has the first mover advantage and significant technological, manufacturing know-how now.

Car producing corporations like Volkswagen, BMW, Toyota, Daimler Chrysler, Honda, Stellantis, however, have decades of manufacturing experience and very large financial resources at their hand, because as relatively low as their net profit margins might be, they are making billions of USD net profits a year. Each one of them.

So intrinsic valuation in the impending price battle becomes illusive or challenging, at least, to make. I have several times estimated in articles on this blog that Tesla's intrinsic value is 120 billion USD.

This estimation of mine, now also of my firm Wolfteam Ltd., however, was based on the assumptions that electric vehicles would remain a niche part, not more than 10-12% of overall car market revenue and Tesla would not become the dominant player, by far in it. 

The first assumption that electric cars will remain a niche market seems relatively founded still, but now the niche could expand to 20 % of the overall electric vehicles market. As regards the second assumption, Tesla is the leading electric car manufacturer globally currently in an almost oligopoly market, but the market can become almost a monopoly if Tesla manages to sell relatively many more electric cars than its competitors in the next 7 years.

So Wolfteam's estimate of Tesla's intrinsic value is hereby raised to 230 billion USD.

Tesla has acquired formidable cars, vehicles manufacturing know-how. Already. This was one of the main disadvantages in Tesla's strategy execution. Making cars in large quantities proved significantly much more difficult that Elon Musk imagined, as the innovator has stated openly several times

But time brings experience. Volkswagen, BMW, Toyota, Daimler Chrysler, Honda, Stellantis, etc. have huge resources and almost centuries of experience in car manufacturing to draw upon.

So, the coming electric cars production and ultimately market share contest would be intriguing to observe in terms of investment analysis and valuation, technological know-how, investments in factories, innovation and driving experience, ultimately.


Disclaimer: The blog post above is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, derivatives or cryptocurrencies.


www.wolfteamedge.com



Mergers and Acquisitions advisory, Strategy, Capital raising, Valuations.

Bulgaria, Eastern Europe







Monday, May 1, 2023

First Republic Bank And Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies


First Republic Bank, a financial institution that had lent significant part of its loans portfolio to finance Bitcoin, cryptocurrency related businesses, was placed in administration over the previous weekend and is being taken over by JP Morgan.

Bitcoin's price fell a lot in yesterday's trading session. Which is natural, given that First Republic Bank could be called a crypto bank.

Wolfteam Ltd. holds the opinion, that Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin and other cryptocurrencies will survive First Republic Bank's financial troubles, like crypto survived the recent failure of Silicon Valley Bank, another crypto lender.

Bitcoin proves resilient, lean, anti-fragile, adaptable, robust. Essentially, Bitcoin and crypto in general seem a survival, long-term prosperity story, for now, at least.


First Republic Bank Deposits Are Taken Over By JPMorgan Chase



 

JP Morgan Chase takes over First Republic Bank's deposits in a government orchestrated takeover.

A similar thing happened to Silicon Valley Bank's assets, another bank recently in trouble.

First Republic Bank is the second biggest failing bank in terms of assets in US history.

Both First Republic Bank and Silicon Valley Bank were in many ways cryptocurrency, Bitcoin projects financing banks.

In short, crypto banks.

JP Morgan and Silicon Valley Bank assets' acquirers will get loan stakes in the largest innovation niche of Silicon Valley.

Wolfteam  Ltd.'s opinion is, however, that most of the cryptocurrency and Bitcoin projects of First Republic Bank and Silicon Valley Bank are not perfectly viable.

And due to their assets it will be a challenge for JP Morgan and SVB's acquirers to integrate their acquisitions smoothly.

 

Disclaimer: The blog post above is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, derivatives or cryptocurrencies.

www.wolfteamedge.com

Mergers and Acquisitions advisory, Strategy, Capital raising, Valuations

 


Is Bitcoin A Substitute For Gold? Bitcoin Versus Gold

 

Currently, most factors that potentially should lead, according to investment theory, to a significant increase in the price of gold like high money creation, huge outstanding money supply, political uncertainty and risk aversion are present and amplified.

And despite all that the price of gold cannot break significantly above 2000 USD.

I am of the opinion that one of the main factors, influences behind that development is Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, in general.

Most of the global trading volumes in gold and silver occur on the spot market. Gold is traded electronically like a foreign currency, without physical delivery and the price is very close to troy ounce futures price.

The same way Bitcoin is traded.

Apparently, most of the retail investors in Bitcoin were investing previously in gold.

And these possible investment outflows out of the gold spot market towards Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, seem to explain, at least partially, the gold price not exploding so far.


Disclaimer: The blog post above is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, derivatives or cryptocurrencies.

www.wolfteamedge.com

Mergers and Acquisitions advisory, Strategy, Capital raising, Valuations