Disclaimer:

Disclaimer: The blog posts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is". The blog is stocks analysis and valuation, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, Artificial Intelligence, AI, deep-learning focused. Independent, unbiased AI insights. Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blog posts on this blog and posts on social networks. Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blog post and posts on social networks! The blog is property of Wolfteam Ltd. www.wolfteamedge.com Respectfully yours, Petar Posledovich

Saturday, June 27, 2020

Companies that Benefit from Video Streaming. Netflix, Spotify, Roku.


Dear Reader,

Video streaming is arguably the hottest trend in technology. Video streaming is on its way to displace one of the greatest technologies of the 20th century, namely television.

There are number of companies that could benefit from video streaming. Netflix, the video streaming service, Roku and Spotify, the musing streaming service, are some obvious, publicly listed candidates.

I estimate that there is respectively 50%, 100% and 200% upside for Netflix, Roku and Spotify's stock prices from their current levels. Netflix gives an example of how the streaming services might work out. Netflix was at first a classic discounter offering low prices to hook consumers to its product. Later Netflix started raising prices and is now even profitable, be it mildly though.

Spotify is the clear leader in music streaming. Spotify, if it adds social networking services like news feed, could end up a direct competitor to Facebook and become the next leading social network, which implies several fold possible increase in Spotify's stock price.

Roku is an emerging technology, that channels streaming. Spotify could win from providing advertisements on its streaming services.

All said, video streaming is a life changing technology, that could propel growth in the global economy to not negligible extent.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!


Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich


Wednesday, June 24, 2020

Stocks Winners from the Coronavirus


Dear Reader,

It looks like technology companies are the real winners from the coronavirus disease COVID-19 so far. Especially mega capitalization stocks like Amazon and Microsoft. Why? Investors seem to believe remote working, remote shopping and remote communication will benefit technology companies. The logic is quite straightforward.

However, I believe most technology companies are grossly overvalued. Amazon and Microsoft, for example, I estimate are overvalued by 30% to 40%. If people really believe companies like Amazon and Microsoft could escape unscathed the coronavirus, I think this is a fallacy.

Amazon now makes consumers in some countries pay higher shipping fees and requires a deposit to purchase books, for example. This often doubles the price of books. Yes, people are using  computers more, so Microsoft can benefit a lot, but Microsoft's stock simply reflects too much future revenue and profit growth, especially in its cloud services business.

I forecast the time of value stocks like oil, mining, industrial and automobile companies will soon come again, as the economy shifts. I exclude banks, because I believe it is highly likely the global banking sector will run into trouble due to future and current nonperforming loans.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!


Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich

Monday, June 22, 2020

Cryptocurrencies as a New Asset Class



Dear Reader,

Cryptocurrencies turn out to be the first new asset class in decades.

Through Initial Coin Offerings startups like Telegram, for example, could offer cryptocurrencies to early backers of the company in exchange for legal tender or other cryptocurrencies, often bitcoin or ether.

Basically, cryptocurrencies are stocks on steroids in terms of volatility. Cryptocurrencies are very volatile since through them you cannot participate in the profits of the company through dividends and you do not have a residual claim on the company's assets after senior and junior bondholders and preference shares in case of bankruptcy.

In essence, a cryptocurrency issued by a start up is tied to the fortunes of the start up in the same way as stocks. However, since cryptocurrencies do not have a residual claim on companies' assets and claim on companies' dividends from net profits, cryptocurrencies are much more volatile than stocks. 

The profit opportunities from cryptocurrencies, however, are also much larger that those that can be obtained from stocks. Issuing cryptocurrencies is much easier and much more accessible for young start ups than doing an Initial Public Offering of shares of the startup. Usually, Initial Public Offerings are done by much more mature start ups than the ones which could issue cryptocurrencies through Initial Coin Offerings.

Basically, any start up in any form of development can do an Initial Coin Offering and issue its own cryptocurrency provided it finds investors willing to buy it.


Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!


Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich


Saturday, June 20, 2020

The Coronavirus Second Wave Effect on Stocks


Dear Reader,

It seems we are in a second wave of the coronavirus disease COVID-19 globally. This time, however, economic shutdowns will be much harder to swallow for the general public, which has been hurt a lot by the recent economic crash.

How will stocks react to the COVID-19 second wave? Naturally, the main US, European and Asian indices will fall. There will be winners, however. A natural winner seems to be Zoom Video Communications, the now ubiquitous video conferencing application that will be used more and more during a pandemic.

Cyclical stocks like oil and mining exploration and production stocks could again be hurt horrendously. Industrial stocks would also suffer in the coming economic slowdown. Some technology stocks like Microsoft and Amazon will be hurt less and may even rise as they did in the last 5 months, despite the eruption of the coronavirus. Retail and groceries stocks like Walmart and Costco will also perform relatively better than the global stock market indices.

Interesting case are gold mining stocks. I think gold for sure will rise during the second wave of the coronavirus in search of safe heaven demand and money printing by central banks. But gold stocks are also generally related to the overall level of stocks. So between these two counterbalancing forces I forecast the rise of gold price will win out and gold stocks could prove winners in the second wave of the coronavirus.

In general, I think we are in for WW , two W-s shaped economic development. The general economy and the main global stock market indices will rise and fall again and then rise and then fall again until a vaccine or very successful medicine for coronavirus is developed. So, basically now is the best time for relatively short-term trading strategies - picking tops and bottoms.


Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!


Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich


Thursday, June 18, 2020

Spotify. The Next Social Network?


Dear Reader,


Spotify MAUs vs subscribers 


I personally think that there is place for another large, ubiquitous social network, apart from Facebook. I have several candidates on my list - Spotify, Snapchat and Pinterest.

Spotify has the largest number of total users of the three. Facebook's popularity is considered by many observers to be declining. If Spotify does not fully displace Facebook, I believe Spotify could easily grow its user base past 500 million all-round users globally. Currently Spotify is valued at approximately 42.5 billion USD by public markets. I forecast Spotify could easily reach 160 billion USD capitalization in the next 3-4 years.

The social networking space is ripe for disruption and Spotify could be one of the main winners. Once Spotify has very many users, it can add many features like news feed, photograph sharing and become a direct competitor to Facebook.


Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!


Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich

Wednesday, June 17, 2020

Are Emerging Markets the Next Investment Frontier?


Dear Reader,

Since the Great Recession in 2009 emerging markets stocks have grossly underperformed developed markets stocks and US stock markets especially. US stock markets have outperformed largely driven by the large technology companies.

I think mainly because of a size effect emerging markets could turn into the next hot investment frontier. Stock markets like Brazil, Russia, India and China are undervalued by most metrics.

If the current technology stock market bubble in the US bursts, emerging market stocks could end up attracting hot money, much like they did in the prior to 2009 years. Basically, emerging markets could end up driving a new resurgence in economic growth, much like China has been the main factor with the US for the world's output growth in the last ten years.

I forecast, at the very least, the underperformance of emerging market stocks, especially the large emerging countries, will subside, if not disappear.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!


Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich

Tuesday, June 16, 2020

Will the Coronavirus Lead to a Financial Crisis?


Dear Reader,

Up till now, banks have been relatively immune to the coronavirus disease COVID-19 shutdown woes.

I say relatively, because stocks of global banks have fallen a lot since February and they are still much lower than their recent highs.

Will the coronavirus lead to a financial crisis? It depends how long the COVID-19 economic crisis lasts. If the recession goes on for 2-3 years there may well be a failure of a large systematic bank. Sooner or later, if the current economic crisis continues the number of bankruptcies will rise and banks will record large losses on their loan portfolios.

Since the Great Recession in 2009 regulators pushed esoteric financial instruments and basically risks out of banks and into the shadow banking sector. Banks were left with making plain vanilla loans and trading. The problem with this strategy, however, is that if the economy suffers a massive and encompassing collapse like now, many plain vanilla loans will go sour at the same time. Italian banks experienced something similar after 2013. Italian banks did not participate in the mortgage backed securities boom before 2009. However, when the Italian economy suffered several recessions after 2010 banks started recording credit losses and Italy's financial system was in danger.

If the coronavirus slump goes on for 3 years, let us say, I have no doubt that the health of global banks could prove vulnerable. What does this mean for stock markets? Stock markets could experience a WW, two Ws, shaped pattern bouncing up and down along a lower bottom.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!


Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich

Monday, June 15, 2020

Cryptocurrency Stocks


Dear Reader

Cryptocurrencies are down much from their peaks several years ago.

How to play a possible new cryptocurrency boom with stocks listed on public exchanges?

I propose three choices - Nvidia, AMD(Advanced Micro Devices) and Microsoft. AMD and Nvidia produce computer processing chips and graphical processing units which are used extensively to mine Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Microsoft sells Windows, the ubiquitous operating system powering computers also stands to benefit from a possible cryptocurrency boom as crypto miners buy new computers and Windows software to mine cryptocurrencies.

I must say that both Nvidia and AMD, especially, look quite overvalued currently measured on almost any metric. If the prospective cryptocurrencies new boom could prove elusive, both Nvidia and AMD's stock prices could basically crash.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!


Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich

Friday, June 12, 2020

How to Value Cryptocurrencies?


Dear Reader,

Cryptocurrencies are a hot topic since the last five years. Many people have invested in crypto tokens or with other word cryptocurrencies.

But how to value cryptocurrencies? What are exactly cryptocurrencies? Cryptocurrencies are essentially tokens related to the performance of the respective company. However, different to equities you do not have the last claim on the company's assets - liabilities after senior, junior bondholders and preferred shares.

Having in mind that, I propose the following rule of thumb. First, value the company's equities. Once you have a number for a company's share just multiply that value by 4 or 5 to get the value for the company's cryptocurrency, provided that the number of tokens and shares are the same. Or with other words the company's value is worth 4-5 that in cryptocurrency of the company.

The volatility of cryptocurrencies can be both a curse, but also an opportunity.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!


Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich


Tuesday, June 9, 2020

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Investment Banking in the Current Environment


Dear Reader,

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the last remaining de facto investment banks have almost recovered to their beginning of 2020 stock price levels.

How are the fortunes of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley faring in the current environment? Goldman Sachs is quite exposed through private equity investments to technology companies. Morgan Stanley's main avenue of growth is private banking or wealth management. Technology stocks have fared reasonably well in the current environment. However, if the coronavirus crisis continues, technology companies, as well as everybody else, are bound to feel pain. So Goldman Sachs' private equity style investments in technology firms could lead to losses. Morgan Stanley's wealth management is heavily dependent on stocks investing and trading. If stocks experience another steep fall, Morgan Stanley is sure to record decreasing revenue and large losses. Brokerage services, especially in stocks, have done quite well since many investors, millennials especially, have seen the sell off in March as a buying opportunity. 

However, I do not think the market was on sale in March. I forecast stocks will fall sharply again before the end of 2020.

All in all, the climate for investment banking is not very good currently. Mergers and acquisitions advisory services, debt and equity underwriting revenues are also much below recent levels. I prognosticate Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley's stocks will trade much lower than their current levels at the end of 2020.


Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!


Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich


Monday, June 8, 2020

Are Bank And Oil Stocks Still Undervalued?



Dear Reader,

Bank and oil stocks have staged a remarkable recovery in the last two months. Bank and oil production stocks are the companies which could be described as value stocks in the current environment. That is, stocks with low Price/Earnings, Price/Book, Price/Sales ratios. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index which is heavy with bank, oil production companies and other value stocks has outperformed markedly the growth companies Nasdaq Composite in the last several weeks.

Are banks and oil production stocks still undervalued? No. I think they are in mostly for another large fall, especially bank stocks. Oil and natural gas production stocks could well keep most of their value since the demand for oil for the global economy is inescapable. What is more, people could start owning more cars and consume more petrol to avoid public transport commuting.

I expect two WWs shaped economic recovery or ultimately a kinked L-shaped recovery in terms of economic growth in the mid-term. A wave of defaults is unavoidable, which will put pressure on banks to provision, write off loans and ultimately record losses. This basically means that banks stocks could fall by 20-25% or from current levels.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!


Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich


Sunday, June 7, 2020

Will Global Stock Markets Experience a Second Fall In the Coming Winter?


Dear Reader,

Global stock markets, US stock indices especially, have almost recovered from their steep fall in March due to the coronavirus disease COVID-19 pandemic.

I believe there will be a second fall of major global stock market indices in Europe, Asia, North America and South America if vaccine for the coronavirus is not developed before the coming winter. We could easily experience a second wave of the coronavirus.

I forecast global stock markets will continue to climb until October-November, when they will experience a second large fall due to possibly resurging coronavirus. This is what happened with the Spanish flu and could easily happen again with the coronavirus.

Until the coming October-November technology stocks like Amazon, Zoom Video, Zynga, Electronic Arts, Roku, Netflix, Snap, Pinterest, Spotify etc. will continue to outperform. Energy, banking and other value stocks will recoup much of the lost ground. I prognosticate the fall of global stock market indices in October-November 2020 could again be about 30%.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!


Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich


Saturday, June 6, 2020

Lukoil Valuation


Dear Reader,

Lukoil, the Russian global oil and natural gas production company is currently valued by global equities markets at 55 billion USD.

I believe the intrinsic worth of Lukoil is around 120 billion USD with a time horizon of 5-7 years to realize that value. Why? Lukoil made in 2019 approximately 114 billion USD revenue. Lukoil trades at 5.84 Price/Earnings ratio with the huge dividend yield of 9.31%. The Russian Ruble has been strengthening of late. I estimate Lukoil is grossly undervalued. 

Oil and natural gas demand will continue to be much stronger than the current consensus by many analysts.

That is why I think Lukoil's intrinsic worth is 120 billion USD currently.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!


Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich


Friday, June 5, 2020

Gazprom Valuation


Dear Reader,

Here I am going to attempt to value Gazprom, the Russian natural gas and oil supplier. Gazprom is currently valued at approximately 70 billion USD by the Russian stock market. Gazprom trades at a very low Price/Earnings ratio of 3.8 and provides 4.52% dividend yield.

Basically, Gazprom is grossly undervalued. I estimate Gazprom is worth around 170 billion USD with a 5-7 years time horizon. Even in the current low oil price environment. Oil and natural gas are essential for the functioning of the global economy. The prices of oil and natural gas will not remain low for long. On this blog I correctly forecasted that oil prices will recover to around 40 USD. Then I assumed this would be a temporary recovery before the economy lapses into a recession again.

Now I must admit the chances that oil prices could rise more and stay higher than current levels are increasing.

All that said, Gazprom seems very undervalued as do the stock markets of both Russia and China. Actually many emerging market large companies provide very attractive dividend yields at very low Price/ Earnings ratios. One has to bear in mind, though, that there is a serious risk that major emerging markets currencies in which the aforementioned stocks are denominated could loose a lot of value towards the USD. If, however, the contrary happens and the Russian Ruble appreciates relative to the USD this would make Gazprom even more undervalued.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!


Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich


Thursday, June 4, 2020

The Coronavirus Effect On Tesla


Dear Reader,

Tesla's stock market price is doing remarkably well during the coronavirus disease COVID-19 economic malaise. Tesla is currently trading at approximately 877 USD, just shy of its all time high of 901 USD.

This is remarkable given that major automobile markets have experienced falls in excess of 60%. Apparently many millennial individual investors and individual investors coming from gambling and other venues help drive up Tesla's stock price. I think Tesla's intrinsic value is around 300 USD or around 50 billion USD market capitalization.

Why? Tesla's stock price is a classic bubble driven by a new prospective technology that is going to change the world. Even if electric vehicles do change the world, Tesla is by no means certain to be a winner take all or winner take most. I estimate Tesla will remain a niche player in automotive vehicles which will translate in a stock price for Tesla of around 300 USD in the long-term, provided that Tesla reaches a small net profit margin like 2-3%.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!


Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich