Dear Reader,
Silver and Oil plummeted las week. 10% down day move should happen very rarely with 0.1% probability according to the normal distribution... In the last decade there have been more than 10 such daily moves...
Well, did the commodity bubble burst? In my opinion, not yet. The really interesting events will unfold when the FED exits the QE 2 program. Volaility will certainly pick up substantially.
For now, I am going to sit out and wait. Oil broke through the psycholgical barrier of 100 USD, silver is not far from 30 USD. Once these barriers are decisively breached, a good hypothetical idea is to buy 4 months-1 year out call options on SLV, USO, GLD.
Disclaimer: Please be advised, this is NOT a reccomendation to buy the mentioned securities, commodities or their derivatives. This is just my personal, hypothetical view on the markets. I do not own any of the mentioned commodities (apart from regular day to day use) or their derivatives traded on exchanges, and options on indices or ETFs, stocks traded on exchanges and I do not plan to own them in the next 72 hours!
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Disclaimer:
Disclaimer: The blog posts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".
The blog is stocks analysis and valuation, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, Artificial Intelligence, AI, deep-learning focused. Independent, unbiased AI insights.
Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blog posts on this blog and posts on social networks.
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blog post and posts on social networks!
The blog is property of Wolfteam Ltd. www.wolfteamedge.com
Respectfully yours,
Petar Posledovich
Monday, May 9, 2011
Did the commodity bubble burst? Difficult to say..
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Monday, May 2, 2011
Low volatily in bubble territory..
Dear Reader,
Results from the previous two weeks as of last Friday's close: Buy USO(+5.3%), Buy SLV (+10.5%), Short(-5.0%), Sell XLF(-2.82%).
If 25% of portfolio each = 0.25*(+5.3%)+0.25*(+10.5%) + 0.25*(-5.0%)+0.25*(-2.82%)= +7.98%
A very good result!
For next week: I am not sure. Silver and gold look bublish. I think silver will make a historic high and then... who can tell :-)
A good hypothetical strategy would be to buy put options on SLV but calculating the results on a portfolio would require too many assumptions. The stock market exhibits low volatility. In my opinion this could change very abruptly.
So I have decided to sit out this week and see which way will the market go. No clear trend in sight.
Disclaimer: Please be advised, this is NOT a reccomendation to buy the mentioned securities, commodities or their derivatives. This is just my personal, hypothetical view on the markets. I do not own any of the mentioned commodities (apart from regular day to day use) or their derivatives traded on exchanges, and options on indices or ETFs, stocks traded on exchanges and I do not plan to own them in the next 72 hours!
Results from the previous two weeks as of last Friday's close: Buy USO(+5.3%), Buy SLV (+10.5%), Short(-5.0%), Sell XLF(-2.82%).
If 25% of portfolio each = 0.25*(+5.3%)+0.25*(+10.5%) + 0.25*(-5.0%)+0.25*(-2.82%)= +7.98%
A very good result!
For next week: I am not sure. Silver and gold look bublish. I think silver will make a historic high and then... who can tell :-)
A good hypothetical strategy would be to buy put options on SLV but calculating the results on a portfolio would require too many assumptions. The stock market exhibits low volatility. In my opinion this could change very abruptly.
So I have decided to sit out this week and see which way will the market go. No clear trend in sight.
Disclaimer: Please be advised, this is NOT a reccomendation to buy the mentioned securities, commodities or their derivatives. This is just my personal, hypothetical view on the markets. I do not own any of the mentioned commodities (apart from regular day to day use) or their derivatives traded on exchanges, and options on indices or ETFs, stocks traded on exchanges and I do not plan to own them in the next 72 hours!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
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