Dear Reader,
WTI Crude oil and Brent oil jumped yesterday. Oil could easily reach 50 USD in 2016.
Global oil majors stocks should benefit from that. Fracking companies get even at circa 50 USD, so their stocks should benefit less.
Global stocks and fixed income returns are set for mediocre numbers in the coming years. Fixed income is overvalued and stocks do not have drivers that will make stock returns explode.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
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Disclaimer:
Disclaimer: The blog posts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".
The blog is stocks analysis and valuation, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, Artificial Intelligence, AI, deep-learning focused. Independent, unbiased AI insights.
Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blog posts on this blog and posts on social networks.
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blog post and posts on social networks!
The blog is property of Wolfteam Ltd. www.wolfteamedge.com
Respectfully yours,
Petar Posledovich
Thursday, April 7, 2016
Oil at 50 USD, Fixed Income, Stocks?
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Wednesday, April 6, 2016
Oil and Bonds!
Dear Reader,
Oil seems to be focusing attention these days. I still expect WTI oil to touch 50 USD in 2016.
I do not subscribe to the belief that the oil age is "over". Basically, to produce oil is very cheap, people constantly uncover new finds and technology will keep driving oil production costs down. Clean energy will have its place, but the world economy is still growing.
Global oil majors should benefit from the rise of oil. Mid to large cap fracking companies seem a good way to play oil in the short term.
Government bonds all over the world seem overpriced. Low inflation will come back and the sell-off in US, EU and Japan bonds could be significant.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Oil seems to be focusing attention these days. I still expect WTI oil to touch 50 USD in 2016.
I do not subscribe to the belief that the oil age is "over". Basically, to produce oil is very cheap, people constantly uncover new finds and technology will keep driving oil production costs down. Clean energy will have its place, but the world economy is still growing.
Global oil majors should benefit from the rise of oil. Mid to large cap fracking companies seem a good way to play oil in the short term.
Government bonds all over the world seem overpriced. Low inflation will come back and the sell-off in US, EU and Japan bonds could be significant.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Tuesday, April 5, 2016
Eurozone Government Bonds and US Stocks!
Dear Reader,
I consider the yield on 10 year German government bonds of 0.10% unrealistic. Personally, I expect the yield will rise toward 0.70% in 2016. The ECB is buying, but the levels are simply unreal.
US stocks seem fragile. I expect there will be another pullback of 10% in DJIA, S&P 500 and 20% in Nasdaq in 2016.
The Federal Reserve seems dovish, but the prices of commodities seem fragile. WTI Oil could easiliy fall below 30 USD, before it goes up to 50 USD in 2016.
What is more, I think the Federal Reserve will hike the Federal Funds Rate twice by 0.25% in 2016.
US tech stocks are showing signs of weakness, especially nonpublic tech companies, evidenced by 0 (zero) tech IPOs in the first quarter. I think there is a serious danger, that this weakness could spread to large cap US tech stocks.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
I consider the yield on 10 year German government bonds of 0.10% unrealistic. Personally, I expect the yield will rise toward 0.70% in 2016. The ECB is buying, but the levels are simply unreal.
US stocks seem fragile. I expect there will be another pullback of 10% in DJIA, S&P 500 and 20% in Nasdaq in 2016.
The Federal Reserve seems dovish, but the prices of commodities seem fragile. WTI Oil could easiliy fall below 30 USD, before it goes up to 50 USD in 2016.
What is more, I think the Federal Reserve will hike the Federal Funds Rate twice by 0.25% in 2016.
US tech stocks are showing signs of weakness, especially nonpublic tech companies, evidenced by 0 (zero) tech IPOs in the first quarter. I think there is a serious danger, that this weakness could spread to large cap US tech stocks.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Monday, April 4, 2016
China!
Dear Reader,
My view on China is that we are in for an average GDP growth rate of 4.0% in the next ten years.
I believe the probability for a hard landing is 60%. Hard landing could be caused by either State Owned Enterprises(SOEs) corporate loan defaults or real estate crash. The stock market is not going to post spectacular gains.
The restructuring of the Chinese economy towards more consumption takes longer that expected.
Personally, I believe China should get rid of only 'dirty' industries to decrease pollution. Manufacturing, especially with cheap labour, is one of China's competitive advantages and I think the Chinese government will be reluctant to give it up completely.
The Chinese yuan could lose value in the future.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
My view on China is that we are in for an average GDP growth rate of 4.0% in the next ten years.
I believe the probability for a hard landing is 60%. Hard landing could be caused by either State Owned Enterprises(SOEs) corporate loan defaults or real estate crash. The stock market is not going to post spectacular gains.
The restructuring of the Chinese economy towards more consumption takes longer that expected.
Personally, I believe China should get rid of only 'dirty' industries to decrease pollution. Manufacturing, especially with cheap labour, is one of China's competitive advantages and I think the Chinese government will be reluctant to give it up completely.
The Chinese yuan could lose value in the future.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Friday, April 1, 2016
Brazil, Oil and Gold!
Dear Reader,
Brazil stocks, for one reason or another, are in a bull market. The market seems to be speculating that a new government will ease monetary policy and introduce business friendly measures. The Brazil central bank reference Selic rate target at 14.25% is quite high, so there is a lot of scope for easing.
I like Petroleiro Brasileiro. I think WTI oil could touch 50 USD in 2016, so leveraged plays on oil like mid to large cap fracking companies seem a good bet. Marathon Oil Corporation(MRO) is a good example.
Gold should fall back to 1050 USD in 2016.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Brazil stocks, for one reason or another, are in a bull market. The market seems to be speculating that a new government will ease monetary policy and introduce business friendly measures. The Brazil central bank reference Selic rate target at 14.25% is quite high, so there is a lot of scope for easing.
I like Petroleiro Brasileiro. I think WTI oil could touch 50 USD in 2016, so leveraged plays on oil like mid to large cap fracking companies seem a good bet. Marathon Oil Corporation(MRO) is a good example.
Gold should fall back to 1050 USD in 2016.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
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