Dear Reader,
Last week, I didn't post any ideas since I wasn't convinced. This week is another puzzle, but I am going to give it a try anyway.
The portfolio outcome will be based on today's (Monday) closing price and Friday's NYSE close.
I believe this week will be less volatile, so I need concentrated, volatile ideas.
Namely: Short USO (since the more the rebels advance on Tripoli, the more oil seems to retreat) and long SLV (gold is still a safe heaven, but I suspect if there is a positive change, it will be minute, so I am going to use the leverage silver provides). Each hypothetical trade will encompass 50% of the portfolio.
Disclaimer: Please be advised, this is NOT a reccomendation to buy the mentioned securities, commodities or their derivatives. This is just my personal, hypothetical view on the markets. I do not own any of the mentioned commodities(apart from regular day to day use) or their derivatives traded on exchanges, and options on indices and I do not plan to own them in the next 72 hours!
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Disclaimer:
Disclaimer: The blog posts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".
The blog is stocks analysis and valuation, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, Artificial Intelligence, AI, deep-learning focused. Independent, unbiased AI insights.
Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blog posts on this blog and posts on social networks.
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blog post and posts on social networks!
The blog is property of Wolfteam Ltd. www.wolfteamedge.com
Respectfully yours,
Petar Posledovich
Monday, March 28, 2011
Portfolio Concentration - a good or a bad thing? Let's see!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Sunday, March 20, 2011
So many black swans, fluid situations, let's hope the positives outweigh the negatives
Dear Reader,
Things are getting more and more difficult to weigh. War is war, nuclear reaction is very difficult to predict.
Results from my personal views on the markets: USO (+0.7%), GLD (+0.1%), May 21, 2011 SPY PUT @ 134 strike is up (+13.0%), Sell JJA(-1.2%). If I had invested 25.0% of my portfolio in the four mentioned instruments the result for last week will be: (+1.75%) + (+0.025%) + (+3.25%) + (-0.3)% = + 4.725% for my hypothetical portfolio.
Regarding next week. Basically, I am perplexed. No clear trends, as far as I am concerned. Libya and Japan remain fluid. So I am sitting out next week. Let' rest a bit.
Disclaimer: Please be advised, this is NOT a reccomendation to buy the mentioned securities, commodities or their derivatives. This is just my personal, hypothetical view on the markets. I do not own any of the mentioned commodities(apart from regular day to day use) or their derivatives traded on exchanges, and options on indices and I do not plan to own them in the next 72 hours!
Things are getting more and more difficult to weigh. War is war, nuclear reaction is very difficult to predict.
Results from my personal views on the markets: USO (+0.7%), GLD (+0.1%), May 21, 2011 SPY PUT @ 134 strike is up (+13.0%), Sell JJA(-1.2%). If I had invested 25.0% of my portfolio in the four mentioned instruments the result for last week will be: (+1.75%) + (+0.025%) + (+3.25%) + (-0.3)% = + 4.725% for my hypothetical portfolio.
Regarding next week. Basically, I am perplexed. No clear trends, as far as I am concerned. Libya and Japan remain fluid. So I am sitting out next week. Let' rest a bit.
Disclaimer: Please be advised, this is NOT a reccomendation to buy the mentioned securities, commodities or their derivatives. This is just my personal, hypothetical view on the markets. I do not own any of the mentioned commodities(apart from regular day to day use) or their derivatives traded on exchanges, and options on indices and I do not plan to own them in the next 72 hours!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Sunday, March 13, 2011
There is (very likely) no such thing as a 0 (zero) probability event
Dear Reader,
The events from the last 2 months show there is (in all probability) no such thing as a zero probability event. Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Japan (earthquake, tsunami, posiibility of a nuclear disaster...)
Results from my personal views on the markets: USO (-3.9%), GLD (-0.8%), May 21, 2011 PUT @ 134 strike is up (+13.9%). If I had invested 33.33% of my portfolio in the three mentioned instruments the result for last week will be: (-1%) + (-0.3%) + (+5%) = +3.7% for my hypothetical portfolio.
Regarding next week. Things in Japan seem scary to say the least... I expect most risky asset classes to sell off next week, including oil despite likely unrest in Saudi Arabia.
My personal views on the market for next week: Sell USO, Buy out of the money May 21, 2011 PUT @ 134 of SPY, Sell JJA, Buy GLD.
Basically, probability is a fascinating thing...
Disclaimer: Please be advised, this is NOT a reccomendation to buy the mentioned securities, commodities or their derivatives. This is just my personal, hypothetical view on the markets.
I do not own any of the mentioned commodities or their derivatives traded on exchanges, and options on indices and I do not plan to own them in the next 72 hours!
The events from the last 2 months show there is (in all probability) no such thing as a zero probability event. Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Japan (earthquake, tsunami, posiibility of a nuclear disaster...)
Results from my personal views on the markets: USO (-3.9%), GLD (-0.8%), May 21, 2011 PUT @ 134 strike is up (+13.9%). If I had invested 33.33% of my portfolio in the three mentioned instruments the result for last week will be: (-1%) + (-0.3%) + (+5%) = +3.7% for my hypothetical portfolio.
Regarding next week. Things in Japan seem scary to say the least... I expect most risky asset classes to sell off next week, including oil despite likely unrest in Saudi Arabia.
My personal views on the market for next week: Sell USO, Buy out of the money May 21, 2011 PUT @ 134 of SPY, Sell JJA, Buy GLD.
Basically, probability is a fascinating thing...
Disclaimer: Please be advised, this is NOT a reccomendation to buy the mentioned securities, commodities or their derivatives. This is just my personal, hypothetical view on the markets.
I do not own any of the mentioned commodities or their derivatives traded on exchanges, and options on indices and I do not plan to own them in the next 72 hours!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Saturday, March 5, 2011
The Situation in the Middle East remains 'fluid', anything can happen
Dear Reader,
I will post 'results' if hypothetically I have entered in the mentioned in the previous post positions at the closing prices on Friday 25th February and sold the investments at the closing prices on Friday 4th March:
NYSE Tickers 'Results': USO (+6.7%), GLD (+1.4%), Short JJA (-3.4%), SPY (+0.1%), but the out of the money April 2011 @ 140 USD PUT on SPY is +15% , FXF (+0.3%).
By simply manually adding the results we get a profit of 20.1%. This is the result of my view on the market for the previous week!
The above mentioned tickers are ETFs on commodities, currencies and a put on the S&P 500 index. Just enter the tickers in Google Finance or Yahoo Finance and you will get more details!
For the week ahead: Nothing is certain! The protests in oil rich Libya and Oman continue. 'A day of rage' is scheduled in Saudi Arabia soon according to western media. Anything can happen...
Personal views on the market for next week: Buy OIL, Buy Gold, Buy Silver, Buy out of the money puts on the S&P 500.
Disclaimer: Please be advised, this is NOT a reccomendation to buy the mentioned securities, commodities or their derivatives. This is just my personal, hypothetical view on the markets.
I do not own any of the mentioned commodities or their derivatives traded on exchanges, and options on indices and I do not plan to own them in the next 72 hours!
I will post 'results' if hypothetically I have entered in the mentioned in the previous post positions at the closing prices on Friday 25th February and sold the investments at the closing prices on Friday 4th March:
NYSE Tickers 'Results': USO (+6.7%), GLD (+1.4%), Short JJA (-3.4%), SPY (+0.1%), but the out of the money April 2011 @ 140 USD PUT on SPY is +15% , FXF (+0.3%).
By simply manually adding the results we get a profit of 20.1%. This is the result of my view on the market for the previous week!
The above mentioned tickers are ETFs on commodities, currencies and a put on the S&P 500 index. Just enter the tickers in Google Finance or Yahoo Finance and you will get more details!
For the week ahead: Nothing is certain! The protests in oil rich Libya and Oman continue. 'A day of rage' is scheduled in Saudi Arabia soon according to western media. Anything can happen...
Personal views on the market for next week: Buy OIL, Buy Gold, Buy Silver, Buy out of the money puts on the S&P 500.
Disclaimer: Please be advised, this is NOT a reccomendation to buy the mentioned securities, commodities or their derivatives. This is just my personal, hypothetical view on the markets.
I do not own any of the mentioned commodities or their derivatives traded on exchanges, and options on indices and I do not plan to own them in the next 72 hours!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
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