Dear Reader,
Happy Easter to all christians!
I will let the positions from the previous post run till NYSE close on Friday, 29 April 2011.
The disclaimer from the previous post is valid in this post as well!
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Disclaimer:
Disclaimer: The blog posts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".
The blog is stocks analysis and valuation, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, Artificial Intelligence, AI, deep-learning focused. Independent, unbiased AI insights.
Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blog posts on this blog and posts on social networks.
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blog post and posts on social networks!
The blog is property of Wolfteam Ltd. www.wolfteamedge.com
Respectfully yours,
Petar Posledovich
Sunday, April 24, 2011
Happy Easter! (Hypothetical positions will run till end of next Friday)
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Monday, April 18, 2011
It's a curse to live in interesting (volatile) times! Volatility, however, can be a good thing.
Dear Reader,
S&P today put the USA on negative watch (!) Wow! This is basically history unfloding before our eyes. The Great recession (2008), Middle East, Japan(earthquake and nuclear crises), The EU sovereign crises, now this.
The global pond is swarming with black swans. Unbelievable!
Results from last week: Long USO (-2.8%), Long SLV (+5.1%), Long JJA (-4.1%), Short XLF (+1.9%).
If each position comprised 25% of the portfolio the result would would have been:
0.25*(-0.028) + 0.25*(+0.051) + 0.25*(-0.041)+ 0.25*(+0.019)= +0.01%. At least I would not have hypothetically lost money.
Anyway, my personal view on the market for next week is: Buy USO, Buy SLV, Sell XLK (SPDR technology), Sell XLF. Starting point today NYSE's close, end point Friday 22.04.2011 NYSE close.
Disclaimer: Please be advised, this is NOT a reccomendation to buy the mentioned securities, commodities or their derivatives. This is just my personal, hypothetical view on the markets. I do not own any of the mentioned commodities (apart from regular day to day use) or their derivatives traded on exchanges, and options on indices or ETFs, Stocks traded on exchanges and I do not plan to own them in the next 72 hours!
S&P today put the USA on negative watch (!) Wow! This is basically history unfloding before our eyes. The Great recession (2008), Middle East, Japan(earthquake and nuclear crises), The EU sovereign crises, now this.
The global pond is swarming with black swans. Unbelievable!
Results from last week: Long USO (-2.8%), Long SLV (+5.1%), Long JJA (-4.1%), Short XLF (+1.9%).
If each position comprised 25% of the portfolio the result would would have been:
0.25*(-0.028) + 0.25*(+0.051) + 0.25*(-0.041)+ 0.25*(+0.019)= +0.01%. At least I would not have hypothetically lost money.
Anyway, my personal view on the market for next week is: Buy USO, Buy SLV, Sell XLK (SPDR technology), Sell XLF. Starting point today NYSE's close, end point Friday 22.04.2011 NYSE close.
Disclaimer: Please be advised, this is NOT a reccomendation to buy the mentioned securities, commodities or their derivatives. This is just my personal, hypothetical view on the markets. I do not own any of the mentioned commodities (apart from regular day to day use) or their derivatives traded on exchanges, and options on indices or ETFs, Stocks traded on exchanges and I do not plan to own them in the next 72 hours!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Sunday, April 10, 2011
Markets seem to go up (almost) all the time. Will this continue?
Dear Reader,
Last week the price of oil continued to rise and the uprisings in the Middle East are from over. Gold and silver seem to be entering bubble territory. Silver went up 8.1% last week.
Results from last week: Long USO (+4.6%), Long SLV (+8.1%), Long JJA (+2.2%), Short XLF (+0.4%).
If each position comprised 25% of the portfolio the result would would have been:
0.25*(+0.046) + 0.25*(+0.081) + 0.25*(+0.022)+ 0.25*(+0.004)= 0.0115+ 0.0203+ 0.0055 + 0.0010=0.0383= +3.83%. A good result.
Commodities and precious metals, however, are entering dangerous highs. Markets can continue to go up a long, long time and it does not seem a very good idea to be short. There is too much liquidity all over the world, some commodities are above their 2008 highs, some are a fraction lower...
Anyway, my personal view on the market for next week is: Buy USO, Buy SLV, Buy JJA, Sell XLF.
Basically, the same as last week, but I expect a major pullback in risk assets to take place soon. Precious metals, basic metals and agriculture (cotton, sugar) seem ready to sell off sharply. The same goes for equities.
However, for now the supply of more liquidity to the markets seems to support prices.
Disclaimer: Please be advised, this is NOT a reccomendation to buy the mentioned securities, commodities or their derivatives. This is just my personal, hypothetical view on the markets. I do not own any of the mentioned commodities (apart from regular day to day use) or their derivatives traded on exchanges, and options on indices or ETFs, Stocks traded on exchanges and I do not plan to own them in the next 72 hours!
Last week the price of oil continued to rise and the uprisings in the Middle East are from over. Gold and silver seem to be entering bubble territory. Silver went up 8.1% last week.
Results from last week: Long USO (+4.6%), Long SLV (+8.1%), Long JJA (+2.2%), Short XLF (+0.4%).
If each position comprised 25% of the portfolio the result would would have been:
0.25*(+0.046) + 0.25*(+0.081) + 0.25*(+0.022)+ 0.25*(+0.004)= 0.0115+ 0.0203+ 0.0055 + 0.0010=0.0383= +3.83%. A good result.
Commodities and precious metals, however, are entering dangerous highs. Markets can continue to go up a long, long time and it does not seem a very good idea to be short. There is too much liquidity all over the world, some commodities are above their 2008 highs, some are a fraction lower...
Anyway, my personal view on the market for next week is: Buy USO, Buy SLV, Buy JJA, Sell XLF.
Basically, the same as last week, but I expect a major pullback in risk assets to take place soon. Precious metals, basic metals and agriculture (cotton, sugar) seem ready to sell off sharply. The same goes for equities.
However, for now the supply of more liquidity to the markets seems to support prices.
Disclaimer: Please be advised, this is NOT a reccomendation to buy the mentioned securities, commodities or their derivatives. This is just my personal, hypothetical view on the markets. I do not own any of the mentioned commodities (apart from regular day to day use) or their derivatives traded on exchanges, and options on indices or ETFs, Stocks traded on exchanges and I do not plan to own them in the next 72 hours!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Sunday, April 3, 2011
Uncertainty remains. Volatility was not present last week (!) The probability of this lasting is not high, according to my (humble) opinion.
Dear Reader,
Results from hypothetical trades last week: short USO (-4.3%) and long SLV (+1.9%), so the portfolio result is: 0.5*(-4.3%) + 0.5*(+1.9%) = (-2.15%) + (+0.95%) = -1.2%
Seems the uncertainty was way to high for oil to go down. I heard an analyst say that Libya (2% of global oil production) was responsible for a $20 up move. And some people say there is enough oil in Cushing Oklahoma to cover the needs of the USA for (long) enough time ?! :-)
There some 200 mln cars in the US, according to various news sources...
My hypothetical views for next week: Buy SLV, Buy USO, Buy JJA, Sell XLF.
If the stock market goes down, financials will hurt, as far as I can asses.
Disclaimer: Please be advised, this is NOT a reccomendation to buy the mentioned securities, commodities or their derivatives. This is just my personal, hypothetical view on the markets. I do not own any of the mentioned commodities (apart from regular day to day use) or their derivatives traded on exchanges, and options on indices or ETFs, Stocks traded on exchanges and I do not plan to own them in the next 72 hours!
Results from hypothetical trades last week: short USO (-4.3%) and long SLV (+1.9%), so the portfolio result is: 0.5*(-4.3%) + 0.5*(+1.9%) = (-2.15%) + (+0.95%) = -1.2%
Seems the uncertainty was way to high for oil to go down. I heard an analyst say that Libya (2% of global oil production) was responsible for a $20 up move. And some people say there is enough oil in Cushing Oklahoma to cover the needs of the USA for (long) enough time ?! :-)
There some 200 mln cars in the US, according to various news sources...
My hypothetical views for next week: Buy SLV, Buy USO, Buy JJA, Sell XLF.
If the stock market goes down, financials will hurt, as far as I can asses.
Disclaimer: Please be advised, this is NOT a reccomendation to buy the mentioned securities, commodities or their derivatives. This is just my personal, hypothetical view on the markets. I do not own any of the mentioned commodities (apart from regular day to day use) or their derivatives traded on exchanges, and options on indices or ETFs, Stocks traded on exchanges and I do not plan to own them in the next 72 hours!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
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