Disclaimer:

Disclaimer: The blog posts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is". The blog is stocks analysis and valuation, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, Artificial Intelligence, AI, deep-learning focused. Independent, unbiased AI insights. Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blog posts on this blog and posts on social networks. Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blog post and posts on social networks! The blog is property of Wolfteam Ltd. www.wolfteamedge.com Respectfully yours, Petar Posledovich

Sunday, April 10, 2011

Markets seem to go up (almost) all the time. Will this continue?

Dear Reader,

Last week the price of oil continued to rise and the uprisings in the Middle East are from over. Gold and silver seem to be entering bubble territory. Silver went up 8.1% last week.

Results from last week: Long USO (+4.6%), Long SLV (+8.1%), Long JJA (+2.2%), Short XLF (+0.4%).
If each position comprised 25% of the portfolio the result would would have been:
0.25*(+0.046) + 0.25*(+0.081) + 0.25*(+0.022)+ 0.25*(+0.004)= 0.0115+ 0.0203+ 0.0055 + 0.0010=0.0383= +3.83%. A good result.

Commodities and precious metals, however, are entering dangerous highs. Markets can continue to go up a long, long time and it does not seem a very good idea to be short. There is too much liquidity all over the world, some commodities are above their 2008 highs, some are a fraction lower...

Anyway, my personal view on the market for next week is: Buy USO, Buy SLV, Buy JJA, Sell XLF.
Basically, the same as last week, but I expect a major pullback in risk assets to take place soon. Precious metals, basic metals and agriculture (cotton, sugar) seem ready to sell off sharply. The same goes for equities.
However, for now the supply of more liquidity to the markets seems to support prices.

Disclaimer: Please be advised, this is NOT a reccomendation to buy the mentioned securities, commodities or their derivatives. This is just my personal, hypothetical view on the markets. I do not own any of the mentioned commodities (apart from regular day to day use) or their derivatives traded on exchanges, and options on indices or ETFs, Stocks traded on exchanges and I do not plan to own them in the next 72 hours!

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