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GitLab's market capitalisation could increase ten times from current levels in 7 years time.
HashiCorp's market capitalisation could rise 7 times from its level now.
Cloud computing is the future. The firms that embrace it and are nimble, agile, innovative and move fast developing it will be worth more than 100 billion USD soon.
GitLab's open source approach is a case in point.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will disintermediate the investment banking services now provided mainly by the five largest Wall Street investment banks, namely JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Citigroup as companies will be able to issue their own cryptocurrencies connected with a certain project or cash flows.
In addition, venture capital funds will also lose their positions as the main financiers for young, predominantly technology firms. As these tech startups will be able more easily and at a lower cost to finance their projects and endeavours.
The above developments, of course, will foster the creation of new finance and investment banking startups, many having Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies and blockchain at their core.
In short, a new golden age for financial entrepreneurship is slowly emerging.
And finance and technology, hand in hand will lead to new welfare creation throughout the world and foster a more just, fair and affluent society.
In my humble opinion, Bitcoin will be worth more than 170 000 USD in ten years on blockchain efficiency, money transfers disruption of banking and the blockchain created business efficiencies.
Many of the cloud computing stocks that are down more than 70 % from their recent peaks will more than recover from the lows.
Cloud computing, as far as I am concerned will become more than 700 billion USD yearly revenue market 12 years from now.
Cloud computing is arguably the most exciting, but also one of the most difficult markets to break into of our time.
Cloud computing is one of the most promising markets, because cloud computing already has yearly run revenue of more than 100 billion, is growing by more than 20 % year on year and cloud computing shows the promising of basically becoming computing as we know it. Soon everything will be in the cloud including productivity software, entertainment, games and films and also data storage and analysis will be done in the cloud.
And most importantly artificial intelligence or AI is already heavily done via cloud computing.
The market of cloud computing is arguably the most difficult to break into since it is dominated by Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet, Google's owner. Not long ago these three companies had market capitalisation of around 7 trillion USD!
Now Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet's combined market capitalisation is approximately 4.5 trillion USD, which is staggering amount.
It is a classic David versus three Goliaths battle.
GitLab, a relatively new and small technology company has built a code repository and cooperation service using open source, thus attacking the Infrastructure as a Service, IaaS segment of cloud computing, which is by far the largest in terms of revenue part of cloud computing.
Only via an innovative and niche approach can the three technology giants Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet be successfully challenged. GitLab is trying to do that. And the open source approach of utilising the world's brains could well help GitLab succeeding, partially at least.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies provide far too many efficiencies for businesses and consumers for their prices to go down to zero.
Bitcoin facilitates payments for businesses and consumers, stores value for people and companies and the underlying blockchain algorithm provides huge potential economies of scale which are only about 5 % to 7 % utilised.
Cryptocurrencies issued by companies are a way to raise funds, which angel investors and venture capital funds are not capable of providing at the moment. At least, not at the current return on investment and the associated risk.
Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are directly disrupting the commercial banking, investment banking and asset management industries and the blockchain algorithm has the potential to just change our world.
Open source software has long held the promise of displacing close source software production that is dominant nowadays via Microsoft's Windows and MS Office software and Apple's Macintosh computers operating systems.
Open source, however has not been able to live up to its promise, up till now.
R, Python, SQL, Android etc. are all open source projects. It seems the world is mature enough to accept that blue dyed hair techies or geeks called otherwise can actually serve corporations well.
Nobody minds the geeky Mark Zuckerberg, or at least all the major, sturdy, highbrow corporations of the world are tripping over themselves to advertise on the Zuckerberg owned and run Facebook software, part of Meta.
GitLab is trying to bring open source code to cloud computing via its open source code repository, collaboration, adaptation and ultimately high quality software applications output. It is interesting how the dominant mandarins of cloud computing, namely Amazon, Microsoft and Google Cloud, part of Alphabet corporation will react. Up till now the established corporations in Infrastructure as a Service cloud computing are largely ignoring the new open source competitor GitLab.
History has shown via iPhone against Blackberry and Nokia, Google against Yahoo, Facebook against everyone else that this could be very dangerous.
It remains to be seen how things will come out.
Tesla's market capitalisation is 754 billion USD currently.
In my opinion, Tesla's intrinsic value is 120 billion USD and this is the value of the electric vehicles production technology.
If one takes out government subsidies and in advance booking of advance small fraction payments of Tesla cars orders, Tesla is not profitable and with a negative profit margin in excess of - 10 %, according to my estimates.
If Tesla does not achieve a technological breakthrough, which enables Tesla Inc. to produce electric vehicles with a 5 % positive net profit margin at least, Tesla will go bankrupt.
Tesla is relying on China and the efforts of the Chinese government to reduce pollution which drives purchases of Teslas in China. However, now the tensions between China and USA are very strained and this source of revenue could well decrease or even cease off altogether if the Russia - Ukraine altercation further destroys the US - China relationships.
Actually, Tesla seems to have a founder problem. As exemplified by Elon Musk's current attempt to buy Twitter, it seems Elon Musk employs some strange business practices. Many analysts claim that all what Elon Musk is doing is trying to sell his existing Twitter stake at a higher price. This is an unproven claim, I repeat.
If Tesla's stock falls too much, it may well not be a convertible currency with which Tesla can fund its growth. To put it short, Tesla will not be able to finance itself by raising new capital or take out margin loans if its stock price falls too much. Simply because Tesla is not profitable, that is it is burning cash.
In short, both Tesla and the Nasdaq Composite are way overvalued. If the Federal Reserve, however, stops raising rates the Nasdaq Composite will recover some of its lost ground.
No. I think Bitcoin will survive and thrive long term. Bitcoin simply provides too many efficiencies.
The underlying hashing blockchain algorithm will change our world.
I think Bitcoin's price will fall to around 17 000 USD before recovering.
We are living through a new 2022 dot com, first bubble, now we are witnessing the bust. And all this caused by the Federal Reserve raising interest rate levels.
GitLab, the Infrastructure as a Service, IaaS cloud computing code repository service based on open source software is vying to win market share in IaaS cloud against Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud offerings.
The time proven way to fight against a stronger, at least optically, opponent is to outsmart the stronger competitor.
GitLab is employing the already classic startup strategy of targeting a niche - code repository which later could turn out to be the bedrock of cloud software production and thus take the cloud computing market by storm. A page rip out from the now classic startup bestseller "The Lean Startup" by Eric Ries.
The niche, develop, adapt as you go strategy was first most successfully deployed by Toyota Motor Company and also touched upon in "The Innovator's Dilemma" book by Clayton Christensen.
History, of course is full of examples where the "lean startup" strategy has not worked. But successful examples like Alphabet, Google owner, Amazon, Meta, Facebook producer, Snap, Snapchat's owner, even Netflix, which is now worth a huge 80 billion USD, even after falling 70 % from its recent peak make for legends and sprout many new startups started by ambitious young men and women.
I personally think GitLab's main advantage is the open source approach. Open source approach increases to several degrees the potential adaptability and agility of the company employing the open source software technology.
The success of a startup challenger like GitLab often hinges on attracting brilliant employees, arguably most importantly brilliant coders. And it is an open secret that some of the most talented programmers are open source fanatics.
In short, as far as I am concerned, GitLab has many ingredients of a successful challenger of the establishment, even be it in a still briskly growing market like cloud computing.
GitLab, the code repository and collaboration service based on open source code is an interesting attempt to break into and win a relatively large market share of an oligopoly like, large, quickly growing and very promising market like cloud computing.
Amazon AWS, Microsoft and Google Cloud are dominating cloud computing and especially its largest segment by far Infrastructure as a Service, IaaS where GitLab is offering its service.
I forecast GitLab could be worth 100 billion USD in 7 year time.
The cloud computing market is currently at a 100 billion USD yearly revenue run rate and cloud computing revenue is growing at more than 20 % year on year. And the net profit margin of Amazon AWS cloud computing offering currently stand at more than 20 %.
So the opportunities for a new, nimble and innovative entrant into IaaS cloud computing are enormous.
Open source software has up till now been shunned by large corporations. But R, Python, SQL are just some examples where bedrock programming languages are based on open source code writing.
GitLab is attacking a large market as cloud computing using a niche targeting strategy. This has worked in the past and I could see it working for GitLab. Organizations like NASA, Goldman Sachs, Siemens, Fujitsu are clients of GitLab, which is a testament in itself.
GitLab's classic lean startup, niche targeting, develop, change as you go strategy could actually work, in my humble opinion.
The Federal Reserve Federal Funds Rate is basically the interest rate of the the world. Since Federal Reserve regularly during crises provides swap lines to other leading global central banks like the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and the central bank of Switzerland, the Federal Reserve is in end effect the central bank of the world.
These EUR, JPY, GBP and CHF swap lines are nothing else then a promise by the Federal Reserve to give USD in exchange for EUR, JPY, GBP and CHF collateral for the amount negotiated.
All other risk assets like technology stocks, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are priced off the Federal Reserve policy.
No, the Federal Reserve, in my opinion will not destroy cryptocurrencies with its current policy of aggressively raising rates. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies will stay because they save people and corporations time, effort and money. Bitcoin and the underlying blockchain technology provide efficiencies and economies of scale which ultimately helps people live better and longer.
And since all corporations are trying to maximise profits, the lower costs of production Bitcoin, the underlying blockchain algorithm and other cryptocurrencies provide is a great thing to have.
Barring an outright ban of cryptocurrencies issued by major governments, cryptocurrencies will not only continue to exist, but thrive long into the future, as far as I am concerned.
In addition, many new cryptocurrencies issued by small technology startups could offer competition to Wall Street banks which ultimately guide to a significant extent capital flows. In short, cryptocurrencies could potentially disrupt investment banking, that is IPOs, equity capital raising, debt capital raising and Mergers and Acquisitions.
And since Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, via the hashing algorithm underlying the blockchain actually produce information and share information, cryptocurrencies could disrupt Wall Street's research departments.
In short, cryptocurrencies provide too much benefits to just go dark. And in the future, they will provide cash flows via dividends.
GitLab is an open-core, open source company that provides a git type code repository and collaboration platform and tools.
Open source code software has long held huge promise as evidenced by the Red Hat Company which at one point traded at Price/Sales ratio of 1 000 and 40 billion USD market capitalisation.
For one reason or another this potential has not been fully realised. Large corporations have typically not trusted the technologists with non standard looks, geeks in short, that prefer and develop open source based software. This has prevented open source companies from quickly scaling and thus becoming corporations valued at hundreds of billions or event trillions of USD like Microsoft, Meta or Apple.
GitLab is a ray of light that trail blazes the path for open source technology. Companies like Goldman Sachs, Siemens, Fujitsu and governmental organisations like NASA are already using GitLab which is a huge testament for GitLab's software product quality.
Actually, GitLab provides the core, the bedrock for software production, namely how to collaborate, integrate teams and ultimately produce high quality computer code. This makes GitLab an important player in the Infrastructure as a Service, IaaS segment of cloud computing. And Infrastructure as a Service is the largest segment in cloud computing which is already more than a 100 billion USD in yearly revenue run rate market.
It remains to be seen whether GitLab's innovative open source approach will make bigger inroads into cloud computing and thus ultimately change the way we compute. As far as I am concerned, GitLab has reasonable chances of success in becoming one of the modern day's technology disrupters.