Dear Reader,
Microsoft, Google and Amazon posted blowout earnings. The Nasdaq technology index is on a tear, rising like crazy. Megacap technology stocks like Apple, Alphabet(Google), Microsoft, Facebook, Amazon may well be overvalued but they are earning staggering amounts of money. This time the possible dot com bubble is smaller, because the large capitalization stocks are making loads of money(profit), not just eyeballs on the site like in 2000.
But the top 5 technology stocks' valuation is getting ridiculous. The top 5 tech stocks amount to more than 3 000 000 000 000(trillion) USD in market capitalization! This is simply staggering. This time, however, the earnings and revenue are concentrated in the 5 aforementioned stocks.
I envisage a correction in the main US stocks indices S&P 500, Nasdaq and DJIA of circa 30% in the next two three years.
Catalonia's secession from Spain is going to make the yield on the Spanish government bonds reach 3.00% soon. The European Central Bank will go on buying assets for longer than expected. The ECB could end up stifling the bond market in the eurozone and indirectly the equities markets in Europe. If the ECB ''achieves'' this Europe will end up with a Japanese scenario - low inflation, low or negative growth.
Otherwise, I believe global oil stocks are undervalued. Oil measured by WTI oil and Brent oil will soon establish a range between 60 and 75 USD, according to me. Russian and Brazilian stocks are therefore undervalued.
Otherwise, I believe the global economy is about to accelerate. Global GDP growth year on year will reach something like 4.1-4.3% in the next three to four years. Credit is about to grease the economy. Credit growth is to rise significantly. Global banks will benefit. Global banks stocks are value stocks at the moment and I think they are undervalued.
Disclaimer:
The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social
networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation,
are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an
offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions
expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of the company where I am working currently!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
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Disclaimer:
Disclaimer: The blog posts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".
The blog is stocks analysis and valuation, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, Artificial Intelligence, AI, deep-learning focused. Independent, unbiased AI insights.
Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blog posts on this blog and posts on social networks.
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blog post and posts on social networks!
The blog is property of Wolfteam Ltd. www.wolfteamedge.com
Respectfully yours,
Petar Posledovich
Friday, October 27, 2017
Top Five Technology Stocks, Global Economic Growth, US, Russia Stocks!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Sunday, October 22, 2017
Are US Stocks in a Bubble? Are Emerging Market Stocks Value Plays? Russia, China Stocks!
Dear Reader,
Many analysts say US stocks are in a bubble. This may well be true. But I think the US stock market rally is set to continue for 2-3 more years. The largest technology stocks like Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook, Amazon are richly valued, but they are posting mind blowing results in terms of profit and revenue. Amazon excluding, which has been notorious for making scant profits. So if the Nasdaq falls, it will fall by no more than 30% from peak, according to my humble opinion.
There just isn't a visible catalyst on the horizon which could unleash a financial crises. A possible crises cause could be the ETF industry which exhibited stunning growth in recent years. Another Black Swan event for the global stock market rally could be a large globally systematic bank failure. In US there are no obvious candidates, but in Europe Deutsche Bank, Italian and Spanish banks could fall into trouble. Regarding the Catalonia independence movement, things are going to get worse, before they get better. Large Spanish banking players like Santander and BBVA could easily get into trouble and drag other global banks and the global economy down with them.
Regarding emerging markets stocks... Russia stocks have developed into something of an oil value play. I personally feel oil measured by both US WTI and Brent could easily hit 70 USD which should propel Russian stocks. Chinese stocks seem also value plays, but to a lesser extent. Personally, I think China will suffer a crises, triggered by the financial sector in the country burdened by the over-leveraged both state-owned and private enterprises. A crisis in China could sink the global economy in deep recession.
Basically, If a global crises ensues, after it is done, emerging market stocks should be a great long term investment, in my opinion. Emerging markets(Brazil, Russia, India, China etc.) are now big enough to stand on their own feet. So they should survive the next crises and prosper afterwards.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of the company where I am working currently!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
Many analysts say US stocks are in a bubble. This may well be true. But I think the US stock market rally is set to continue for 2-3 more years. The largest technology stocks like Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook, Amazon are richly valued, but they are posting mind blowing results in terms of profit and revenue. Amazon excluding, which has been notorious for making scant profits. So if the Nasdaq falls, it will fall by no more than 30% from peak, according to my humble opinion.
There just isn't a visible catalyst on the horizon which could unleash a financial crises. A possible crises cause could be the ETF industry which exhibited stunning growth in recent years. Another Black Swan event for the global stock market rally could be a large globally systematic bank failure. In US there are no obvious candidates, but in Europe Deutsche Bank, Italian and Spanish banks could fall into trouble. Regarding the Catalonia independence movement, things are going to get worse, before they get better. Large Spanish banking players like Santander and BBVA could easily get into trouble and drag other global banks and the global economy down with them.
Regarding emerging markets stocks... Russia stocks have developed into something of an oil value play. I personally feel oil measured by both US WTI and Brent could easily hit 70 USD which should propel Russian stocks. Chinese stocks seem also value plays, but to a lesser extent. Personally, I think China will suffer a crises, triggered by the financial sector in the country burdened by the over-leveraged both state-owned and private enterprises. A crisis in China could sink the global economy in deep recession.
Basically, If a global crises ensues, after it is done, emerging market stocks should be a great long term investment, in my opinion. Emerging markets(Brazil, Russia, India, China etc.) are now big enough to stand on their own feet. So they should survive the next crises and prosper afterwards.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of the company where I am working currently!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Saturday, October 7, 2017
US Stocks, Russian Stocks, German stocks, Europe!
Dear Reader,
US stocks continue higher. They could well be overpriced, but the smartphone market is still growing, the global central banks like the Federal reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are still adding cumulatively liquidity to the global financial system. Additionally the global economy is growing, being at relatively slow pace and companies' earnings are growing.
Actually, I think US stocks measured by the S&P 500 could fall by more than 30% if a selloff ensues. When the fall starts, risk management will be key. The risk can be managed through combination of long and short sales, derivatives like put options and futures or simply going into cash. Personally, I favor going into cash, when there are signs a selloff is coming. Possible signs could be large fall in the S&P 500, fall in GDP, abrupt stopping of liquidity provided by the global central banks.
Russian stocks are basically undervalued. The Russian stock market is reliant on energy prices, Energy stocks are value stocks at the moment. I think the price of oil measured by US WTI and Brent crude is going to start drifting toward 70 USD. Consequently, the rubble will strengthen and the Russian economy will start growing with more than 4% annually.
German stocks could still go higher, the European economy is growing at a healthy pace(2%). Germany is an economy leveraged on manufacturing, so if European growth accelerates German companies could still benefit handsomely. Other big stock markets in Europe like France, UK and Italy will also go higher if the region's economy goes on growing. Spain is another case, Catalonia could secede, which will be a great shock to the country, Actually, Catalonia is the main short-term risk before Europe's economy.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of the company where I am working currently!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
US stocks continue higher. They could well be overpriced, but the smartphone market is still growing, the global central banks like the Federal reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are still adding cumulatively liquidity to the global financial system. Additionally the global economy is growing, being at relatively slow pace and companies' earnings are growing.
Actually, I think US stocks measured by the S&P 500 could fall by more than 30% if a selloff ensues. When the fall starts, risk management will be key. The risk can be managed through combination of long and short sales, derivatives like put options and futures or simply going into cash. Personally, I favor going into cash, when there are signs a selloff is coming. Possible signs could be large fall in the S&P 500, fall in GDP, abrupt stopping of liquidity provided by the global central banks.
Russian stocks are basically undervalued. The Russian stock market is reliant on energy prices, Energy stocks are value stocks at the moment. I think the price of oil measured by US WTI and Brent crude is going to start drifting toward 70 USD. Consequently, the rubble will strengthen and the Russian economy will start growing with more than 4% annually.
German stocks could still go higher, the European economy is growing at a healthy pace(2%). Germany is an economy leveraged on manufacturing, so if European growth accelerates German companies could still benefit handsomely. Other big stock markets in Europe like France, UK and Italy will also go higher if the region's economy goes on growing. Spain is another case, Catalonia could secede, which will be a great shock to the country, Actually, Catalonia is the main short-term risk before Europe's economy.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of the company where I am working currently!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
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