Dear Reader,
This week US stocks suffered a one day drop by more than 1% measured by the main indices. They bounced back immediately, though.
I continue to think US stocks will go on rising. The Trump trade will fade a bit, but earnings will still grow. The US economic recovery will continue with pace of 1.2 - 2.0% GDP growth. Until there is a shallow recession. But even then, when stocks fall by more than 20%, this will be a buying opportunity. The US has become a safe heaven and it attracts a lot of capital, part of which finds its way into stocks.
Oil is stuck in 45 - 60 USD range and I do not envisage it breaking soon. Russia stocks should continue to rise, as the Russian economy is recovering. India continues to grow strongly and Indian stocks are a long term buy opportunity. The turmoil in Bazil is a buying opportunity, as far as I am concerned.
I start to think the Federal Reserve will raise the Federal Funds Rate only once more this year. I predicted this in the past, but the probability for a hike rose. Now the probability fell back again. That said, I forecast the yield on the 10 year US treasury will finish 2017 below 2.70%.
I expect the European Central Bank will go on buying assets until the end of 2018, when its Asset Purchase Program will end. I do not expect the yield on the German 10 year government bond to rise above 0.80% in 2017.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
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Disclaimer:
Disclaimer: The blog posts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".
The blog is stocks analysis and valuation, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, Artificial Intelligence, AI, deep-learning focused. Independent, unbiased AI insights.
Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blog posts on this blog and posts on social networks.
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blog post and posts on social networks!
The blog is property of Wolfteam Ltd. www.wolfteamedge.com
Respectfully yours,
Petar Posledovich
Saturday, May 20, 2017
US Stocks, Emerging Markets and Central Banks!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Friday, May 12, 2017
US Technology Stocks, Emerging Markets Stocks!
Dear Reader,
US stocks continue to go up. The large US technology companies Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook drive the market higher. They are set to continue to go higher driven by smartphone demand and artificial intelligence.
The larger US technology sector is also doing well. Private companies are raising astounding amounts of money. The money for startups is abundant driven by the low interest rate environment and the party is set to continue, at least in the next two three years.
US WTI and Brent oil is stuck in a range, but the risks are to the downside. US fracking companies are liking the higher prices and the conventional oil drillers(OPEC primarily) are bleeding and losing market share. The swing producer is now the US shale industry. US WTI oil could fall below 40 USD in the next few months.
Russia's economy is slowly improving and being restructured. The regulators in China are trying to get the air(leverage) out of the securities markets and this is stifling the growth of Chinese stocks's prices. India stocks look good, since the economy is growing strong.
The US stock market could correct by 10% measured by the main indices, but I think US stocks will recover, barring any financial shock.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
US stocks continue to go up. The large US technology companies Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook drive the market higher. They are set to continue to go higher driven by smartphone demand and artificial intelligence.
The larger US technology sector is also doing well. Private companies are raising astounding amounts of money. The money for startups is abundant driven by the low interest rate environment and the party is set to continue, at least in the next two three years.
US WTI and Brent oil is stuck in a range, but the risks are to the downside. US fracking companies are liking the higher prices and the conventional oil drillers(OPEC primarily) are bleeding and losing market share. The swing producer is now the US shale industry. US WTI oil could fall below 40 USD in the next few months.
Russia's economy is slowly improving and being restructured. The regulators in China are trying to get the air(leverage) out of the securities markets and this is stifling the growth of Chinese stocks's prices. India stocks look good, since the economy is growing strong.
The US stock market could correct by 10% measured by the main indices, but I think US stocks will recover, barring any financial shock.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Sunday, May 7, 2017
French Elections, Global Stocks!
Dear Reader,
Emmanuel Macron seems destined to win the French Presidential elections.
Global stocks should react positively and rise thereafter. 10 year German government bonds yield should rise mildly, as much of Macron's victory is already incorporated.
US stocks should continue rising. Much safe heaven capital flows are looking for some return and ending up in US stocks. Financial stocks could correct a bit, but they should go higher influenced by Federal Reserve Federal Funds Rate hikes. Furthermore, Donald Trump should be able to pass regulations that benefit the financial sector.
WTI oil could fall below 40 USD and energy stocks could get hurt. Fed hikes should push gold even lower.
European stocks, banks especially, seem undervalued. If Macron wins the elections, European stocks could rise by 5 - 10% as measured by Eurostoxx 50 and Eurostoxx 600. EU banks should benefit even more.
Chinese stocks seem capped by the authorities' effort to regulate financial services.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
Emmanuel Macron seems destined to win the French Presidential elections.
Global stocks should react positively and rise thereafter. 10 year German government bonds yield should rise mildly, as much of Macron's victory is already incorporated.
US stocks should continue rising. Much safe heaven capital flows are looking for some return and ending up in US stocks. Financial stocks could correct a bit, but they should go higher influenced by Federal Reserve Federal Funds Rate hikes. Furthermore, Donald Trump should be able to pass regulations that benefit the financial sector.
WTI oil could fall below 40 USD and energy stocks could get hurt. Fed hikes should push gold even lower.
European stocks, banks especially, seem undervalued. If Macron wins the elections, European stocks could rise by 5 - 10% as measured by Eurostoxx 50 and Eurostoxx 600. EU banks should benefit even more.
Chinese stocks seem capped by the authorities' effort to regulate financial services.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Tuesday, May 2, 2017
US Technology Stocks Boom to Continue, Oil, Gold in a Range!
Dear Reader,
US technology stocks continue their march higher. In my opinion, as long as the smartphone boom continues, the US technology stocks will go on rising. The smartphone is just such a powerful platform.
Artificial Intelligence is the next content that even now fills the smartphone.
Artificial Intelligence will usher in the fourth industrial revolution. Algorithms have great capacity to perform mundane, repetitive tasks.
US WTI Oil is stuck in a range between 45 - 60 USD which will be difficult to break. The factors that weigh on gold seem to be stronger than those that predict upside for the precious metal.
US stocks should continue grinding higher by 5-8% a year as measured by the main indices S&P 500, DJIA, Nasdaq.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
US technology stocks continue their march higher. In my opinion, as long as the smartphone boom continues, the US technology stocks will go on rising. The smartphone is just such a powerful platform.
Artificial Intelligence is the next content that even now fills the smartphone.
Artificial Intelligence will usher in the fourth industrial revolution. Algorithms have great capacity to perform mundane, repetitive tasks.
US WTI Oil is stuck in a range between 45 - 60 USD which will be difficult to break. The factors that weigh on gold seem to be stronger than those that predict upside for the precious metal.
US stocks should continue grinding higher by 5-8% a year as measured by the main indices S&P 500, DJIA, Nasdaq.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
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