Dear Reader,
I remain with my new view that the main US stock indices will rise 5-8% in 2015. There is a containable tech bubble in some public stocks and many nonpublic stocks. Many mutual funds and institutional investors that invested in the new tech 'stars' will get burned, but this should not derail the US stock bull market.
I forecast that the yield on the 10 year German government bond will reach 1.00% in 2015 and the EUR/USD will reach 0.90 in 2015. My forecast of USD/YEN at 120 already came true(see earlier posts), so I am still weighing the situation for a 'hard' view on this market.
The intensive bull market in Chinese stocks should continue. The sell off in 'periphery' eurozone government bonds is bound to continue.
I forecast gold will fall to 800 in 2-3 years.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Stocks valuations, analysis. Unbiased. Insightful. Property of Wolfteam Ltd., www.wolfteamedge.com If you find the blog useful, LINK TO www.posledovich.blogspot.com Stocks, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, AI, analysis, insights. CLICK ADVERTISEMENTS, SHARE ON SOCIAL NETWORKS! Technology, Bitcoin, AI, company strategy, stocks analysis. Stocks, crypto involve high RISK! Nothing on this blog is meant or should be construed as investment recommendation to buy or sell securities or their derivatives!
Disclaimer:
Disclaimer: The blog posts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".
The blog is stocks analysis and valuation, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, Artificial Intelligence, AI, deep-learning focused. Independent, unbiased AI insights.
Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blog posts on this blog and posts on social networks.
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blog post and posts on social networks!
The blog is property of Wolfteam Ltd. www.wolfteamedge.com
Respectfully yours,
Petar Posledovich
Friday, May 29, 2015
US and China Stocks, Eurozone Bonds and Gold!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Monday, May 25, 2015
Change of View on US Stock Market!
Dear Sir or Madam,
I am reversing my forecast that US stocks, measured by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, will fall respectively 20% and 30% in 2015.
Now I forecast that US equities measured by the main indices(S&P 500, DJIA, Nasdaq) will grow by 6-8% a year in the next 2-3 years.
I still think there is a bubble in nonpublic tech stocks. Some of the public tech stocks, however, have already corrected. I still think some mutual funds and other institutional investors will loose a lot of money, but that event should be a controlled one.
I still think 10 year German government bonds yield will reach 1.00% in 2015. I confirm my forecast of the EUR/USD reaching 0.90 in 2015. Eurozone 'periphery' government bonds will continue their sell off. I forecast gold will sell off sharply to 800 USD within 2-3 years.
My forecast that the German DAX will sell off 10% has already come true, so now I forecast the DAX Index will finish up 15% for 2015.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
I am reversing my forecast that US stocks, measured by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, will fall respectively 20% and 30% in 2015.
Now I forecast that US equities measured by the main indices(S&P 500, DJIA, Nasdaq) will grow by 6-8% a year in the next 2-3 years.
I still think there is a bubble in nonpublic tech stocks. Some of the public tech stocks, however, have already corrected. I still think some mutual funds and other institutional investors will loose a lot of money, but that event should be a controlled one.
I still think 10 year German government bonds yield will reach 1.00% in 2015. I confirm my forecast of the EUR/USD reaching 0.90 in 2015. Eurozone 'periphery' government bonds will continue their sell off. I forecast gold will sell off sharply to 800 USD within 2-3 years.
My forecast that the German DAX will sell off 10% has already come true, so now I forecast the DAX Index will finish up 15% for 2015.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Friday, May 15, 2015
Bonds and Stocks sell-off!
Dear Reader,
I am still of the opinion that US stocks will sell off 20%(S&P 500) from current levels in 2015. The Nasdaq Composite will sell off more than 30%.
Nonpublic and many public technology and biotechnology companies are in a bubble. Some of the valuations and reports are ridiculous.
The German 10 year government bond yield will reach 1.0% in 2015. The other eurozone government bonds will sell off as well. US 10 year treasury yield will reach 2.7%(as forecasted in earlier posts) in 2015. The Federal Reserve, in my opinion, will raise rates in September. US GDP will grow not more than 2.5% year on year in 2015.
Gold will reach 1050 in 2015. EUR/USD, despite its recent bounce, should reach 0.90 in 2015.
The German DAX Index is on the verge of a 10% correction, as I predicted in earlier posts.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Friday, May 8, 2015
Bonds Sell-off Prediction, Stocks, Commodities and FX!
Dear Reader,
My predictions(see earlier posts) that 10 year German government bonds yield will reach 0.7% in 2015 came true on 7 May 2015. Yields fell from that lofty level through today. My new target for the 10 year German government bond yield is 1.00% in 2015.
I predict that the sell off of eurozone 'periphery' government bonds will accelerate. 10 year Spanish and Italian government bond yields will reach 2.5% in 2015.
I still expect US main stock indices to sell off 20% in 2015 measured by the S&P 500. The Nasdaq will sell more than 30%.
Gold will target 1050 in 2015. EUR/USD will target 0.90 in 2015.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Friday, May 1, 2015
Stock and Bonds!
Dear Reader,
German government bonds sold off this week. I stick with my forecast that the yield on the 10 year German government bonds will get to 0.7% in 2015.
I still think US stocks will correct 20% in 2015. The DAX lost about 7% from its peak recently and as you might remember I predicted a 10% percent correction, so the DAX should fall a bit more in 2015.
I am still of the opinion that eurozone government bonds are a HUGE bubble and they should sell off hard in the next 1-2 years.
I forecast gold will get to 1050 in 2015 and the EUR/USD will target 0.9 in 2015.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
German government bonds sold off this week. I stick with my forecast that the yield on the 10 year German government bonds will get to 0.7% in 2015.
I still think US stocks will correct 20% in 2015. The DAX lost about 7% from its peak recently and as you might remember I predicted a 10% percent correction, so the DAX should fall a bit more in 2015.
I am still of the opinion that eurozone government bonds are a HUGE bubble and they should sell off hard in the next 1-2 years.
I forecast gold will get to 1050 in 2015 and the EUR/USD will target 0.9 in 2015.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)