Dear Reader,
The US stocks rally continues. I forecast 5-10% upside in the main indices DJIA, Nasdaq, S&P500 in 2017.
US technology stocks are basically pricing much growth in the industry, which is not impossible, given the fast development of mobile, cloud services and Artificial Intelligence.
I forecast the yield on the 10 year treasuries to finish the year closer to 2.50% than 3.00%. The Federal Reserve is to hike only once the Federal Funds Rate in 2017.
China looks interesting within the emerging markets. Brazil also seems to recover driven by accomodative central bank and the recent rise of the price of oil. Russia could do well driven by the realtively higher price of oil. India has excellent growth prospects. South Africa rides the resurgence of Africa.
Basically the BRICS emerging countries and Eastern Europe should do well, even though the Federal Reserve is in a hiking cycle!
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
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Disclaimer:
Disclaimer: The blog posts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".
The blog is stocks analysis and valuation, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, Artificial Intelligence, AI, deep-learning focused. Independent, unbiased AI insights.
Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blog posts on this blog and posts on social networks.
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blog post and posts on social networks!
The blog is property of Wolfteam Ltd. www.wolfteamedge.com
Respectfully yours,
Petar Posledovich
Monday, February 27, 2017
Emerging Markets Stocks, US Stocks, Technology, Federal Reserve!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Thursday, February 23, 2017
Federal Reserve, Bonds, Stocks Correction, Chinese Stocks!
Dear Reader,
The Federal Reserve FOMC members seem divided on whether to raise the Federal Funds Rate soon.
I still envisage only one Federal Funds Rate(FFR) hike in 2017. I suspect one hike will be erased from the three currently pencilled in at the March Federal Reserve Meeting.
US stocks are due for correction. I think the correction will ensue when the Federal Reserve hikes the FFR. Most affected are going to be tech stocks, financials, utilities, real estate. I envisage a correction of 10-15% in the the main US indices DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq somewhere in 2017.
Chinese authorities have taken steps to curb the implicit reliance of the market for wealth management products on government guarantee. That could pull funds from the Chinese stock market and dim its excellent prospects. I still forecast, however, the Shanghai Composite will rise by 15-20% in 2017.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
The Federal Reserve FOMC members seem divided on whether to raise the Federal Funds Rate soon.
I still envisage only one Federal Funds Rate(FFR) hike in 2017. I suspect one hike will be erased from the three currently pencilled in at the March Federal Reserve Meeting.
US stocks are due for correction. I think the correction will ensue when the Federal Reserve hikes the FFR. Most affected are going to be tech stocks, financials, utilities, real estate. I envisage a correction of 10-15% in the the main US indices DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq somewhere in 2017.
Chinese authorities have taken steps to curb the implicit reliance of the market for wealth management products on government guarantee. That could pull funds from the Chinese stock market and dim its excellent prospects. I still forecast, however, the Shanghai Composite will rise by 15-20% in 2017.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Tuesday, February 21, 2017
Stocks, the Economy and the Federal Reserve!
Dear Reader,
US PMIs declined in February. I still believe the Federal Reserve will hike only once the Federal Funds Rate in 2017.
US stocks should not gain more than 10 % in 2017. Small cap stocks look a good bet.
Oil US WTI could fall below 45 USD, once more shale drillers come to market. China stocks should perform well in 2017 with the Shanghai Composite rising more 15-20% in 2017.
Stocks in India should do well as the Indian economy continues growing strongly.
Technology stocks should continue rising driven by mobile, cloud computing and artificial intelligence.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
US PMIs declined in February. I still believe the Federal Reserve will hike only once the Federal Funds Rate in 2017.
US stocks should not gain more than 10 % in 2017. Small cap stocks look a good bet.
Oil US WTI could fall below 45 USD, once more shale drillers come to market. China stocks should perform well in 2017 with the Shanghai Composite rising more 15-20% in 2017.
Stocks in India should do well as the Indian economy continues growing strongly.
Technology stocks should continue rising driven by mobile, cloud computing and artificial intelligence.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Monday, February 20, 2017
Treasuries, German Bonds, US and Emerging Markets Stocks!
Dear Reader,
US stocks should continue their march higher and rise 5-10% as measured by the main indices DJIA, Nasdaq, S&P 500 in 2017. Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 should rise by 10-15%.
I make the contrarian call that the Federal Reserve will hike the Federal Funds Rate only once in 2017. I envisage in another case at most two hikes of the Federal Funds Rate in 2017.
The yield on the 10 year US treasury is to finish closer to 2.50% than 3.00%.
In individual stocks I like BOX, AMD and Facebook, Apple, Google, Amazon and Microsoft.
Technology stocks should continue rising driven by the shift to mobile and cloud services. Apple, for a mega cap stock, is undervalued. It is valued as a value stock, when in fact it has significant growth potential.
Emerging markets stocks should rise steadily in the next 2-3 years, despite the Federal Reserve being in a hiking cycle
Gold is to rise circa 10% in 2017. Oil WTI is to finish the year close to 50 USD .
I forecast the yield on the ten year German government bond will finish the year closer to 0.50% than 1.00% and could turn negative in the first half of 2017.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
US stocks should continue their march higher and rise 5-10% as measured by the main indices DJIA, Nasdaq, S&P 500 in 2017. Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 should rise by 10-15%.
I make the contrarian call that the Federal Reserve will hike the Federal Funds Rate only once in 2017. I envisage in another case at most two hikes of the Federal Funds Rate in 2017.
The yield on the 10 year US treasury is to finish closer to 2.50% than 3.00%.
In individual stocks I like BOX, AMD and Facebook, Apple, Google, Amazon and Microsoft.
Technology stocks should continue rising driven by the shift to mobile and cloud services. Apple, for a mega cap stock, is undervalued. It is valued as a value stock, when in fact it has significant growth potential.
Emerging markets stocks should rise steadily in the next 2-3 years, despite the Federal Reserve being in a hiking cycle
Gold is to rise circa 10% in 2017. Oil WTI is to finish the year close to 50 USD .
I forecast the yield on the ten year German government bond will finish the year closer to 0.50% than 1.00% and could turn negative in the first half of 2017.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Tuesday, February 14, 2017
US Small Caps, Tech Stocks, Bund Yields, Treasuries!
Dear Reader,
I expect the main US indices S&P 500, DJIA, Nasdaq to post gains of 5-8% in 2017. I expect small caps to outperform with the Russell 2000 index rising 10-15% driven by the inward policies of Donald Trump.
I do not expect his tax changes to be sweeping. The US does not have fiscal room to decrease taxes a lot, but a gradual decrease of 5% of the US corporate tax rate could be expected.
Oil is to fall mildly below 50 USD in the first quarter driven by US shale resurgence. Gold is to go up by circa 10% in 2017.
I believe the Federal Reserve will hike only once the Federal Funds Rate in 2017. More hikes, three especially, could plunge the US economy in recession.
Technology stocks should continue their march higher. The smartphone boom is far from over. Most tech stocks are more than fairly valued, but the excesses should be absorbed by growth in the near term.
The EUR/USD should touch parity in 2017, but finish the year closer to 1.05.
I forecast that German 10 year government bond yields will stay low, below 0.50% in 2017, and lower for longer. The eurozone economy needs the stimulus badly still.
The yield on the 10 year treasury should finish the year closer to 2.50% than 3.00%.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
I expect the main US indices S&P 500, DJIA, Nasdaq to post gains of 5-8% in 2017. I expect small caps to outperform with the Russell 2000 index rising 10-15% driven by the inward policies of Donald Trump.
I do not expect his tax changes to be sweeping. The US does not have fiscal room to decrease taxes a lot, but a gradual decrease of 5% of the US corporate tax rate could be expected.
Oil is to fall mildly below 50 USD in the first quarter driven by US shale resurgence. Gold is to go up by circa 10% in 2017.
I believe the Federal Reserve will hike only once the Federal Funds Rate in 2017. More hikes, three especially, could plunge the US economy in recession.
Technology stocks should continue their march higher. The smartphone boom is far from over. Most tech stocks are more than fairly valued, but the excesses should be absorbed by growth in the near term.
The EUR/USD should touch parity in 2017, but finish the year closer to 1.05.
I forecast that German 10 year government bond yields will stay low, below 0.50% in 2017, and lower for longer. The eurozone economy needs the stimulus badly still.
The yield on the 10 year treasury should finish the year closer to 2.50% than 3.00%.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
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