Treasuries, German Bonds, US and Emerging Markets Stocks!

Dear Reader,

US stocks should continue their march higher and rise 5-10% as measured by the main indices DJIA, Nasdaq, S&P 500 in 2017. Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 should rise by 10-15%.

I make the contrarian call that the Federal Reserve will hike the Federal Funds Rate only once in 2017. I envisage in another case at most two hikes of the Federal Funds Rate in 2017.

The yield on the 10 year US treasury is to finish closer to 2.50% than 3.00%.
In individual stocks I like BOX, AMD and Facebook, Apple, Google, Amazon and Microsoft.

Technology stocks should continue rising driven by the shift to mobile and cloud services. Apple, for a mega cap stock, is undervalued. It is valued as a value stock, when in fact it has significant growth potential.

Emerging markets stocks should rise steadily in the next 2-3 years, despite the Federal Reserve being in a hiking cycle

Gold is to rise circa 10% in 2017. Oil WTI is to finish the year close to 50 USD .

I forecast the yield on the ten year German government bond will finish the year closer to 0.50% than 1.00% and could turn negative in the first half of 2017.


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Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!


Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich