BRICS, US Stocks, Oil, Gold and EUR/USD!

Dear Reader,

US stocks are rising after the US Presidential Elections. I think they should continue to rise in 2017, but moderately. There are pockets of overvaluation in tech stocks, but generaly I do not see a fall larger than 30% in the Nasdaq in the near future.

I think the yield on the 10 year US government bond should continue to rise, but moderately. In 2017 the US treasuries yield should stay even below 3.00%.

The yield on 10 year German bunds should test zero(0) again. The ECB's buying of securites is a formidable force.

Oil seems stuck in the 40 to 60 USD range. I do not see US and global inflation rising. There are just too many headwinds, the leading economies are weak.

Gold is an interesting case. I think it could bounce off 1050 USD. The bottom of gold seems near.

The EUR/USD is heading to parity.

US banks and brokerages should continue to rise along with their European markets.

I think emerging markets will perform well in the next five years. The BRICS economies are big, important and already systemic for the world.


Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!


Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich

Stocks, Federal Reserve, ECB, Commodities, EUR/USD!

Dear Reader,

The dust after the US presidential elections has settled. Donald Trump has won.
I personally think that international banks and brokerages will do well. The regulation pressure on the financial services industry will ease.

I believe the Federal Reserve will hike the Federal Funds Rate in December 2016 and December 2017. The US economy will not speed up markedly.

US technology stocks seem a good investment still. Many corners of the tech market are in a bubble, but in general the smartphone/mobile boom is still going. Artificial intelligence seems to be the next big thing, if done correctly. Personally, I do not believe robots will replace humans. I think robots will augment humans, help them do their jobs more efficiently, not replace them.

Nvidia seems a good bet on artificial intelligence. Facebook is slowing into a mature business. Weibo and Match Inc. seem to offer growth opportunities and are generally a good bet.

The European Central Bank will most certainly extend its Asset Purchase Program beyond March 2017. German 10 year government bonds yield should go again to zero in the next few months. The spread with Italy 10 year and Spain 10 year goverment bonds, however, should remain elevated.

Gold, according to me, is close to finding a bottom. Oil seems stuck between 40 and 60 USD in the near term.

EUR/USD should reach 0.90 in the first few months of 2017, bottom out and the euro should slowly start to aprreciate from then on.


Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!


Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich

US Stocks, Eurozone and US Bonds, Gold and Oil!

Dear Reader,


The US election date is looming. US stocks are in danger of a correction of less than 10% fall from current highs. Few months away, however, stocks seem a good investment still. Money seems to be flowing in US stocks especially. They have become some sort of a safe heaven.

I do not see technology stocks suffering a large correction. Not before the smartphone boom is over, which actually is not that far off. In the long run, however, information technology is still a good investment.

I think the Federal reserve will hike the federal funds rate in December. The yield on the 10 year US treasury should go to 1.9%. Eurozone benchmark 10 year bunds should stay close to 0.00%. The ECB buying power is simply too great. The yields on Spanish and Italian 10 year bonds should fall closer to 1.00% again mainly because of ECB.

Oil seems stuck in a range. It should finish the year close to 50 USD. Gold is an interesting case. It rises in the run up to the US elections, but it should stop rising thereafter.


Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!


Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich

Technology, US Tech Stocks, Eurozone Bonds, Gold and Oil!

Dear Reader,

The Federal Reserve looks like it is about to hike the Federal Funds Rate in December 2016.

Personally, I think gold is undervalued. It could go to 1400 USD before the end of the year, especially if Trumps wins the Presidency. Good play is ABX and other large cap gold stocks.

Oil will trade in a range between 40 and 60 USD until the end of the year. US Stocks could suffer  a minor fall, circa 5%, from current levels(DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq) but should bounce back.

The technological boom is ongoing and is not about to top soon. Technology changes our lives constantly. Even if the Nasdaq falls 30% from current levels, let's say, it still will bounce back and the future looks bright for technology(AI, cloud, software development, communication etc.).

A good way to play the current boom is with chat apps like Line(LN), Facebook(FB) and Weibo(WB). One has to be careful though- they are quite volatile.

Eurozone bonds yields, bunds in particular, should remain at low levels. The ECB looks like it is about to expand its asset purchase program, which should keep yields in check.


Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich

Stocks, Bonds, Foreign Exchange, Oil and Gold!

Dear Reader,


US stocks(DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq) keep making new record highs. Personally, I think there will be a large correction(10-15%), but "you have to dance, until the music stops", so for now, I think US stocks are going up.

As John Maynard Keynes adequately put it: "the market can remain longer irrational, than you can remain solvent".

Eurozone bonds is another madness. Negative yields in Spain, Italy, come on... The yield on the 10 year German bunds is at -0.10%. But "you have to dance, until the music stops", so I do not expect a large jump in yields in the eurozone soon, as long as the European Central Bank (ECB) does not announce any tapering of the bond purchases.

Russian stocks, Gazprom in particular, are trading at ridiculuous levels. I believe oil could go easily to 60 USD in 2016. Russian stocks are grossly undervalued.

Gold is an interesting case. If the Federal reserve hikes even once in 2016, I think it could fall 10%-15%. Until the hike, however, which will most likely be in December 2016, gold should continue to go up.



Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!


Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich

US Technology Stocks, Gold, Bonds!

Dear Reader,

The markets shrugged off the Brexit effect.

I personally do not think big banks will move significant personnel numbers out of London. In the short-term, British real estate could fall 10-20%, but in the  long run the UK could become a safe heaven, especially if it lowers its tax rate to less than 15%.

US stocks measured by the main indices DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq should rise 5% to 7% this year. US technology stocks are set to benefit selectively. Microsoft, Twitter could benefit. Twitter could become a M&A acquisition target. Facebook seems overvalued. Facebook could stay at these lofty valuations for a long time, but it needs to grow a lot, develop new markets to justify that valuation.

Gold is interesting. In 1-2 years I think the price of gold could fall to 1000 USD, but in the mean time it could rise to 1400 USD.

I predict oil would finish the year above 61 USD.

German 10 year bunds yield is to stay between -0.15% to 0.30% for the next few months. The banking crisis in Italy seems contained. Europe seems to apply bail-ins selectively, as the US did...


In the next 5-7 years  emerging markets(BRICS) remain a growth story, provided there is no hard landing in China. Russia, especially, looks undervalued. The rise of the price of oil and the recovery of Russia's economy should benefit the country's stock market.


Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Petar Posledovich

Brexit?!

Dear Reader,

Great Britain decided to exit the European Union. What does this mean for financial assets?

Stocks should suffer only a minor setback. I do not envisage a correction of more than 10% in the US and more than 20% in the eurozone and Asian stock markets.

The UK FTSE should also fall by less than 20%.

Gold should bounce up by 10-15%. In the long run, however, gold is overvalued, I think, and it should correct to 1050 USD in the next 1-2 years.

German 10 year government bonds(bunds) should reverse the fall of yields from the Brexit results day and the bunds yield should again become positive and target 0.30%.

The eurozone periphery(Italy, Spain, Ireland, Portugal, Greece) government bonds's yields should rise by a lot - 1% from current levels.

Basically, the Brexit dip in US stock markets should prove a good opportunity to buy. US stocks do not seem to me to be overvalued.

The eurozone stock markets should have difficulty to recover after the Brexit. The weight of the European Union diminishes after the Brexit.


The Brexit, actually, could prove beneficial for the UK in the long run. The UK could become a safe heaven and the inflow of money could support the British pound and Britsh stocks and bonds in the long run 2-3 years. This is provided that, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland do not decide to leave Great Britain.


Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!


Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich

US Stocks!

Dear Reader,

I think oil woul hit 55 USD, but will trade in a range of 50 to 60 USD in much of the rest of 2016.

Global oil stocks have a bit further to rise.

There is a risk of large US stock market correction, bear market even.
DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P 500 could fall up to 20% from recent peaks.Gold is also prone to a large correction. Gold price could go back to 1050 USD in 2016. Gold stocks could sell off.

EUR/USD could go back to 1.05. USD/YEN could hit 100 in 2016.

I believe there is a distinct possibility of one federal funds rate hike by the Federal Reserve in 2016.

Parts of the tech bubble have already popped(GoPro, GroupOn, Fuel, Twitter, LinkedIn etc.), but a large scale economic disruption coming from tech stocks seems unlikely. Much of the market is nonpublic, so mainly Private Equity funds will suffer.

Many individuals hold nonpublic shares, so there is a small probability that a tech bubble bursting could hurt the average consumer.

All in all, I foresee mediocre returns from the US stock market. DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq should rise no more than 5-10% in 2016, with 5% increase more likely.


Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Oil at 70 USD, Global Stocks, Bonds!

Dear Reader,


Oil, both WTI and brent, could easily go to 70 USD.

Global oil majors should outperfrom.

As far as US and Eurozone stocks are concerned, things are tricky. I believe the correlation between oil and the US stock market is about to break down, diminish.

The Federal reserve could surprise markets and hike in June. Honestly, I am 50:50 if there would be one or two hikes of the Federal Funds Rate in 2016.

Gold is prone to a large fall, I think. Gold could go to 1050 USD and global gold producers could shed more than 30% of their value.

EUR/USD should again go close to 1.05. USD/Yen could touch 100.


Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Oil at 50 USD, Fixed Income, Stocks?

Dear Reader,

WTI Crude oil and Brent oil jumped yesterday. Oil could easily reach 50 USD in 2016.

Global oil majors stocks should benefit from that. Fracking companies get even at circa 50 USD, so their stocks should benefit less.

Global stocks and fixed income returns are set for mediocre numbers in the coming years. Fixed income is overvalued and stocks do not have drivers that will make stock returns explode.


Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Oil and Bonds!

Dear Reader,

Oil seems to be focusing  attention these days. I still expect WTI oil to touch 50 USD in 2016.

I do not subscribe to the belief that the oil age is "over". Basically, to produce oil is very cheap, people constantly uncover new finds and technology will keep driving oil production costs down. Clean energy will have its place, but the world economy is still growing.

Global oil majors should benefit from the rise of oil. Mid to large cap fracking companies seem a good way to play oil in the short term.

Government bonds all over the world seem overpriced. Low inflation will come back and the sell-off in US, EU and Japan bonds could be significant.


Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Eurozone Government Bonds and US Stocks!

Dear Reader,

I consider the yield on 10 year German government bonds of 0.10% unrealistic. Personally, I expect the yield will rise toward 0.70% in 2016. The ECB is buying, but the levels are simply unreal.

US stocks seem fragile. I expect there will be another pullback of 10% in DJIA, S&P 500 and 20% in Nasdaq in 2016.

The Federal Reserve seems dovish, but the prices of commodities seem fragile. WTI Oil could easiliy fall below 30 USD, before it goes up to 50 USD in 2016.

What is more, I think the Federal Reserve will hike the Federal Funds Rate twice by 0.25% in 2016.

US tech stocks are showing signs of weakness, especially nonpublic tech companies, evidenced by 0 (zero) tech IPOs in the first quarter. I think there is a serious danger, that this weakness could spread to large cap US tech stocks.


Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

China!

Dear Reader,

My view on China is  that we are in for an average GDP growth rate of 4.0% in the next ten years.

I believe the probability for a hard landing is 60%. Hard landing could be caused by either State Owned Enterprises(SOEs) corporate loan defaults or real estate crash. The stock market is not going to post spectacular gains.

The restructuring of the Chinese economy towards more consumption takes longer that expected.

Personally, I believe China should get rid of only 'dirty' industries to decrease pollution. Manufacturing, especially with cheap labour, is one of China's competitive advantages and I think the Chinese government will be reluctant to give it up completely.

The Chinese yuan could lose value in the future.


Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Brazil, Oil and Gold!

Dear Reader,

Brazil stocks, for one reason or another, are in a bull market. The market seems to be speculating that a new government will ease monetary policy and introduce business friendly measures. The Brazil central bank reference Selic rate target at 14.25% is quite high, so there is a lot of scope for easing.

I like Petroleiro Brasileiro. I think WTI oil could touch 50 USD in 2016, so leveraged plays on oil like mid to large cap fracking companies seem a good bet. Marathon Oil Corporation(MRO) is a good example.

Gold should fall back to 1050 USD in 2016.


Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Upside for stocks!

Dear Reader,

The Federal reserve erased two Federal funds rate hikes from the dotplot of the FOMC members. Basically, the Federal reserve intends to raise rates two times by 0.25% in 2016 instead of 4 times as envisaged before the march meeting.

This and other factors support some upside potential for stocks globally. US tech stocks and emerging markets(Brazil, Russia, India and China) stocks should ouperform, if oil does not collapse.

Basically, I think oil could touch 50USD in 2016, where it should face various headwinds.

Petrobras, Nvidia, Microsoft, global oil majors look good.


Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Temporary Upside for Gold, Commodities and Equities!

Dear Reader,

The Federal Reserve lowered its forecast for Federal Funds Rate hikes in 2016 to two from four.

This changes some of my assumptions.

I believe global equities have some upside potential in the near term. Commodites should also benefit from the change of stance from the Fed. Oil is on route to reaching my foreacst of 50-60 USD in 2016.
I believe what is happening to gold is a bear market rally, but with all that money printing from central banks all over the world gold could surpass 1350 USD a troy ounce in 2016.

I believe commodity producers stand to benefit the most from this bear market rally in commodities which has some more time to go.

I still beleive EUR/USD could touch parity in 2016, but it will take longer than expected. Emerging market oil stocks should ouperform. Gold miners should outperform in the short term.



Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Large US and EU Bank Stocks Undervalued, US Tech Stocks Overvalued in the short-term, Gold to touch 1000 USD in 2016!

Dear Reader,

Lately, stock markets around the world have rallied. I still think we are in for a 20% fall from recent peaks in the major indices on Wall Street: DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. In the mean time, opportunistic rallies could be used for trading gains.

Contrary to popular views, I still believe the Federal Reserve will hike the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25% in March 2016. The US economy is going strong compared with the global economy. The unemployment rate in the US is 4.9%, which for me is quite low. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index is 1.7% which is quite close the 2.00% target of the Federal Reserve.
    I believe the Federal Reserve will want to preempt a jump in inflation and will make precautionary hikes, instead of abtruptly tightening later.

I expect the Federal Reserve to hike the Federal Funds Rate at least two times in 2016.

I expect 10 year US treasury yield to touch 2.7% in 2016. I expect the 10 year German Bund yield to reach 1.0% in 2016.

Large cap US banks as JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley etc. should outperform. Large cap European Banks as Deutsche, Barclays, Santander, HSBC, Unicredit, Credit Suisse, UBS etc. seem grossly undervalued.

I expect the bubble in (small and nonpublic) technology stocks to burst. For many tech companies like Groupon, Zynga, GoPro, Fuel, Twitter and LinkedIn this has already happened and there have been massive revaluations. Many small and nonpublic tech companies have experienced down rounds and revaluations. I expect this trend to broaden. From the bust however, new global IT leaders will be born.

I do think Twitter and LinkedIn will remain large cap tech companies and retain leading roles in the online advertising market. Facebook seems overvalued, but the correction should not be by more than 40%. Twitter and LinkedIn seem undervalued with midterm holding horizon(3-5 years).

Gold is to fall to 1000 in 2016. Oil to go back to 50-60 USD in 2016. USDJPY to fall to 110. I expect parity EUR/USD 1.00 in 2016.

For me base metals and oil have found a bottom, provided the Chinese economy does not fall of a cliff.

In the long term(5-7 years) Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa(BRICS) stocks seem undervalued. In the short-term, I expect more volatility. If China experiences hard landing all major emerging markets stocks will be dragged lower.


Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Future Bear Market is a Great Opportunity for Mainly Value Stocks!

Dear Reader,

I still expect US stock markets, measured by the main indices DJIA, S&P500, Nasdaq Composite to go into a bear market defined by a fall of more than 20% from the recent peaks. It is true Nasdaq almost touched this level, but I expect DJIA, S&P500 to fall by 20% as well.

That would be a great buying opportunity. I expect large banks(Citi, JPMorgan, Bank of America, MorganStanley, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo) to outperform after the fall. Large IT companies like Google, Apple, Microsoft to outperform after the coming fall.

Facebook seems overvalued. Twitter and LinkedIn after the recent fall seem to be undervalued. If the 20% market drop I forecast does not materialise, Twitter and LinkedIn  could prove great investments.

I expect the Federal Reserve to hike the Federal Funds Rate in March 2016, contrary to market expectations. I expect the US 10 year treasury yield to reach 2.70% by the end of 2016.

The German 10 year Bund is grossly overpriced. I forecast the 10 year German bund yield to touch 1.00% in 2016.

The European Central Bank will disappoint markets again in March. If central banks could do everything, why haven't we thought about this sooner?! :-)

Oil is to recover to 50 USD in 2016. Russian stocks are undervalued. The issue seems to be structural, because other large emerging markets like Brazil and China trade at much higher multiples.
I expect this to partly reverse. Russia is still a powerful country and economy.

Gold is to fall to 1000 USD in 2016 again. The USD/YEN to touch 100 in 2016, EUR/USD to touch 1.00 in 2016.


Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Bear Market in Stocks in 2016!

Dear Reader,

Global stocks went down since the beginning of 2016.

I forecast that US stocks will go into a bear market in 2016 as measured by a larger than 20% fall from the peak in the main indices DJIA, S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite. Then, there will be a buying opportunity especially in technology value stocks like Microsoft, Intel, Qualcomm and value banking stocks like Citigroup, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

EUR/USD to reach parity(1.00) in 2016. USD/YEN to fall to 110 despite the Federal Reserve tightening mode.

Oil to bottom out at 30 USD and reach 60 USD by the end of 2016. Gold to fall below 900 USD in 2016.

I expect the Federal Reserve to hike the Federal Funds Rate at least 3 times in 2016. I expect the 10 year US treasury yield to reach 2.70% in 2016. I forecast the yield on the German 10 year bund to reach 1.00% in 2016.

The European Central Bank will again disappoint investors in its march meeting by only lowering the deposit facility rate to -0.40.


Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!