Dear Reader,
I will try to value Apple Inc., the famous maker of IPhones and the most valuable company in the world by market capitalization.
Currently Apple is valued at 898.40 billion USD market capitalization. A truly staggering sum. The stock price is 174.97 USD. Is Apple Inc. correctly valued?
Basically, It depends!
If the global economy continues growing above 3% measured by world GDP growth year on year, Apple is even slightly undervalued. Apple's Price-to-Earnings ratio is 19.05, which is above the average forward S&P 500 Price-to-Earnings ratio for the last 20 years at 17. If the global economy continues growing above 3% I think the price for Apple should be 15% higher than the current 174.9 USD or 201.215 USD. As the global economy grows people will become more affluent and be able to afford Apple's pricier products.
However, if there is a global recession, defined by two consecutive quarters of growth and world GDP falls by more than 3% for a calendar year Apple is circa 20% overvalued or Apple's stock price should be 139.976 USD. In a recession people are more price sensitive and Apple's luxuriously priced products will not be highly demanded.
My opinion? I think Apple's stock is 10% undervalued currently. Apple's stock should be trading at
192.467 USD.
Otherwise, I think US stocks measured by the main indices will continue going higher for the next 2-3 years.
Disclaimer:
The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social
networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation,
are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an
offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions
expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of the company where I am working currently!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
Stocks valuations, analysis. Unbiased. Insightful. Property of Wolfteam Ltd., www.wolfteamedge.com If you find the blog useful, LINK TO www.posledovich.blogspot.com Stocks, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, AI, analysis, insights. CLICK ADVERTISEMENTS, SHARE ON SOCIAL NETWORKS! Technology, Bitcoin, AI, company strategy, stocks analysis. Stocks, crypto involve high RISK! Nothing on this blog is meant or should be construed as investment recommendation to buy or sell securities or their derivatives!
Disclaimer:
Disclaimer: The blog posts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".
The blog is stocks analysis and valuation, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, Artificial Intelligence, AI, deep-learning focused. Independent, unbiased AI insights.
Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blog posts on this blog and posts on social networks.
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blog post and posts on social networks!
The blog is property of Wolfteam Ltd. www.wolfteamedge.com
Respectfully yours,
Petar Posledovich
Saturday, November 25, 2017
Apple Inc. Valuation!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Sunday, November 19, 2017
Alphabet Inc Google GOOGL Valuation!
Dear Reader,
Here I am going to make an attempt to value Alphabet Inc, or otherwise known as the owner of the ubiquitous Google search engine.
Currently Alphabet Inc's market value is 713.87 billion USD, which is a staggering sum. The stock with the ticker GOOGL trades at a Price/Earnings multiple of 34.51 and Price/Sales multiple of 7.91.
The main driver of the high valuation Alphabet Inc is the growth of the online advertising market where the company has a dominant circa 34% market share. Furthermore, the online advertising market is growing in excess of 10% globally.
However, I think Alphabet Inc is circa 20% overpriced. The online advertising market will not continue growing strongly forever, since Earth's population is not growing so fast anymore and there is a natural limit which is the size of the global advertisement market. The GOOGL ticker stock is too richly valued for my liking.
A wild card, though, is the possibility that Alphabet enters and disrupts another industry. The closest the company has come is its cloud computing offering. But the revenue from Alphabet's cloud computing efforts is still not enough to move the needle significantly. Another bet is self driving cars. But as Tesla's struggles show it is far more difficult to build automobiles profitably at scale than initially envisaged.
So I stick with my call that Alphabet's stock is circa 20% overvalued. With the first US stock market correction GOOGL will fall significantly.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of the company where I am working currently!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
Here I am going to make an attempt to value Alphabet Inc, or otherwise known as the owner of the ubiquitous Google search engine.
Currently Alphabet Inc's market value is 713.87 billion USD, which is a staggering sum. The stock with the ticker GOOGL trades at a Price/Earnings multiple of 34.51 and Price/Sales multiple of 7.91.
The main driver of the high valuation Alphabet Inc is the growth of the online advertising market where the company has a dominant circa 34% market share. Furthermore, the online advertising market is growing in excess of 10% globally.
However, I think Alphabet Inc is circa 20% overpriced. The online advertising market will not continue growing strongly forever, since Earth's population is not growing so fast anymore and there is a natural limit which is the size of the global advertisement market. The GOOGL ticker stock is too richly valued for my liking.
A wild card, though, is the possibility that Alphabet enters and disrupts another industry. The closest the company has come is its cloud computing offering. But the revenue from Alphabet's cloud computing efforts is still not enough to move the needle significantly. Another bet is self driving cars. But as Tesla's struggles show it is far more difficult to build automobiles profitably at scale than initially envisaged.
So I stick with my call that Alphabet's stock is circa 20% overvalued. With the first US stock market correction GOOGL will fall significantly.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of the company where I am working currently!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Saturday, November 11, 2017
Amazon Valuation!
Dear Reader,
US stocks are on a tear. I forecast they will go up for 1-2 years more without a correction of more than 15%.
Here, I will make an attempt to explain and forecast the valuation of Amazon.
The valuation of Amazon has dumbfounded financial markets experts since, basically Amazon's existence. At Price-to-Earnings Ratio 284 Amazon screams overvaluation. But is it overvalued? Let's take a closer look.
Two are the main drivers of a stock's value - return on equity and growth. The return on equity of Amazon is virtually nonexistent, because, well, the company doesn't make money, or small amounts compared with its huge revenue of above 135 billion USD. So Amazon's high valuation must be all down to growth and the hope that somewhere in the future the incessant growth of the online commerce and respectively Amazon's revenue will bring large profits and dividends. This seems an OK hypothesis since the online shopping market grows at rates higher than 10%. However, this hypothesis has driven the Amazon's high valuation for 15 years or more. And there are still no large profits on the horizon. How long can this continue?
Personally, I believe Amazon's stock is about 20-30% overvalued. Amazon subsidizes prices of the products it sells, so it keeps its market share through low prices. If the company stops doing that, its market share and revenue could fall or at the very least stop growing so quickly. I believe 800 USD is a good target price for Amazon, compared with Amazon's current price of above 1125 USD.
A growth driver for Amazon has been its cloud business Amazon Web Services. But the company keeps putting its overall profits in product subsidies and business development. The software cloud market should be a huge business and Amazon is leading the pack. So if the company starts making and distributing more profit to shareholders it can grow into its valuation. But for now, I am sticking with my value of Amazon's stock of 800 USD.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of the company where I am working currently!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
US stocks are on a tear. I forecast they will go up for 1-2 years more without a correction of more than 15%.
Here, I will make an attempt to explain and forecast the valuation of Amazon.
The valuation of Amazon has dumbfounded financial markets experts since, basically Amazon's existence. At Price-to-Earnings Ratio 284 Amazon screams overvaluation. But is it overvalued? Let's take a closer look.
Two are the main drivers of a stock's value - return on equity and growth. The return on equity of Amazon is virtually nonexistent, because, well, the company doesn't make money, or small amounts compared with its huge revenue of above 135 billion USD. So Amazon's high valuation must be all down to growth and the hope that somewhere in the future the incessant growth of the online commerce and respectively Amazon's revenue will bring large profits and dividends. This seems an OK hypothesis since the online shopping market grows at rates higher than 10%. However, this hypothesis has driven the Amazon's high valuation for 15 years or more. And there are still no large profits on the horizon. How long can this continue?
Personally, I believe Amazon's stock is about 20-30% overvalued. Amazon subsidizes prices of the products it sells, so it keeps its market share through low prices. If the company stops doing that, its market share and revenue could fall or at the very least stop growing so quickly. I believe 800 USD is a good target price for Amazon, compared with Amazon's current price of above 1125 USD.
A growth driver for Amazon has been its cloud business Amazon Web Services. But the company keeps putting its overall profits in product subsidies and business development. The software cloud market should be a huge business and Amazon is leading the pack. So if the company starts making and distributing more profit to shareholders it can grow into its valuation. But for now, I am sticking with my value of Amazon's stock of 800 USD.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of the company where I am working currently!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
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