Credit Suisse Valuation. Will Credit Suisse Go Bankrupt?

I estimate the chance that Credit Suisse goes bankrupt in the next 1 year at 35 %.

Credit Suisse, even since the acquisition of US investment bank Donaldson Lufkin and Jenrette has been a major player in the leveraged loans or junk bond underwriting and trading market.

And junk bonds with their much higher yields/interest rates than other higher rated corporate bonds are influenced very negatively in the current rising interest rate risk environment.

In my opinion, Credit Suisse's intrinsic value is 25 billion USD, provided that the current market stress forces the Federal Reserve's hand and the central bank of the United States of America soon stops raising the interest rates levels via hiking the Federal Funds Rate.

If the Federal Reserve drives the Federal Funds Rate to 4.5 % or higher, I believe Credit Suisse can be forced into insolvency. I estimate that probability at 20 %.