Bitcoin, the main cryptocurrency has lost more than 70 % of its value recently.
How to measure the value of Bitcoin?
Growth. Future growth. Since Bitcoin is not a mature business, which both Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham would love and Bitcoin does not pay dividends, the only way to forecast Bitcoin's price is to correctly guess/estimate guesstimate the future growth of Bitcoin's adoption by the public.
Actually, this is not much different from estimating Warren Buffett's proverbial competitive advantage, which drives the value of any business. One has to correctly forecast whether the market would buy the particular company's product or service.
In Bitcoin's case, the blockchain algorithm is the true rainmaker.
A comparatively simple hashing, tree algorithm is underlying Bitcoin. But the great benefit of tree algorithms is that they adapt at every step. They are essentially Bayesian econometrics, statistics applied at every step. Essentially, the lean startup method applied with mathematical models.
This inherent flexibility, vetted by the world's population, which actually creates Bitcoins will ensure that the blockchain and Bitcoin find their way and change most businesses by making them more efficient, that is, they will produce more output with less input.
The financial technology will, of course be most transformed by Bitcoin and the blockchain. Wall Street investment banks, which hold the "key" figuratively speaking to investments via their research departments, will be disrupted by Bitcoin.
The Wall Street investment banks' intermediation of capital creation and flows will be eaten away at, disrupted by the creation of new cryptocurrencies, based on the blockchain algorithm, which will be used for very young, immature, predominantly technology startups to finance themselves.
In addition to that, technologists, bankers and investors are fascinated by (financial) technology. Technologists, bankers and investors lead the initial adoption of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Technologists, bankers and investors will lead the next, much bigger and transformative wave of Bitcoin and crypto adoption.
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