AMD Valuation

AMD Inc, the microprocessing chips manufacturer has a current market capitalisation of 99.1 billion USD.

As far as I am concerned, AMD's intrinsic worth is around 84 billion USD.

100 billion USD is a staggering amount of money.

A large capitalisation company by definition is with a market cap of above 20 billion USD.

Still, many countries have an yearly GDP lower than that.

Yes, artificial intelligence or AI is the future, but AMD and NVDIA, especially do seem overvalued at these levels.

Intel Inc, not so much, I think.

Block, Formerly Square Valuation

 

Block Inc, the fin-tech company, formerly called Square Inc is valued at 39.00 billion USD at the New York Stock Exchange, where Block is listed.

I estimate the intrinsic value of Block is around 100 billion USD.

Block's stock price has been unduly punished both relative to the DJIA and the Nasdaq Composite due to Block's recent investments in Bitcoin. Square Inc changed its name to Block Inc to reflect the founder's Jack Dorsey new strategic direction to Bitcoin, nowadays' main fin-tech.

Block makes almost 20 billion USD in revenue on a rolling yearly basis and this, among other factors is why I think Block is worth significantly more, also because of its focus on crypto.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin As a Funding Tool For Tech Startups And Mature Corporations In the Long-Term

Cryptocurrencies issuance and Bitcoin generation are slowly, but surely disrupting investment banking and venture capital.

In 2015 especially and in 2016 many companies issued their own cryptocurrencies tokens with which they funded their projects, where the crypto tokens insured rights over a certain project of the company.

Telegram, especially and other technology startups raised huge amounts of money by issuing their own cryptocurrencies, thus temporarily disrupting venture capital and even investment banking, that is private company capital underwriting.

Producing Bitcoin is also a great way for startups to fund themselves.

So not only Bitcoin and crypto function as nascent money, but they also provide money, funding for startups and in the future quite possibly corporations.

Stocks that Could Outperform In the Case Of World War III. Commodities Super cycle

If humanity errs significantly and a World War III erupts and leading stock markets remain open, I forecast that commodities, industrial and healthcare stocks will outperform the general stock market indices.

Oil and base metals stocks, especially will continue and even further increase their relative outperformance in the case of a global military conflict, like they did in 2022.

Gold and silver miners' stocks also should rise in the case of World War III.

Industrial companies' equities will also see high demand, since most industrial conglomerates will be redesigned to produce military equipment and gear.

Healthcare stocks, naturally will also outperform in the case of World War III.

A global war, of course, would be a terrible, nightmare scenario, which must never be allowed!

I just hope that the dark side of human nature will not manifest itself. 

Bitcoin As an Investment Diversification Vehicle

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies can be used as diversification option for other investments, including a stocks and bonds portfolio.

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are strongly positively correlated with common stocks, equities and usually move inversely to bonds.

In my opinion, however, the above positive correlation of Bitcoin’s with stocks and usually negative with bonds sooner, rather than later will change. Simply because Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are an enormous financial innovation, driving financial technology, fin-tech and ultimate finance forward.

The eventual exponential value creation leaps of Bitcoin and crypto will ensure jump processes development of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies prices.

The price moves nonlinearity of Bitcoin and crypto should ensure unique price developments for crypto. 

Moderna Valuation on China COVID 19 Wave

In my opinion, Moderna Inc’s intrinsic worth is 300 billion USD in the next 7 years.

And Moderna’s worth in the long-term 12 + years is 550 billion USD.

The first estimate is 80 % influence by the current COVID 19, coronavirus infection eruption in China and 20 % by the promise of the messengerRNA cancer vaccine developed by Modena Inc.

The longer run estimate of 500 billion USD of Moderna Inc’s value is 70 % based in Moderna’s  mRNA cancer vaccine promise and 30 % on various other factors.

Snap Inc, Snapchat Owner Intrinsic Valuation

I believe Snap Inc is worth 220 billion USD.

I know Snap Inc has barely turned a profitable reporting quarter.

However, Snap Inc, Snapchat’s owner is according to my humble opinion the only really viable competitor to Meta Inc, Facebook’s owner and Meta only one year ago had a market capitalisation of 1.1 trillion USD.

Snapchat is colourful, loved by young user demographic, still growing its user numbers and revenue and its fused with the smartphone camera and videos.

And videos are the mega trend of the future.

Apple Is Worth 1 Trillion USD. I estimate

 

Apple’s intrinsic worth is 1.0 trillion USD, according to my estimates, compared to the current market capitalisation of Apple standing at 2.06 trillion USD currently.

My estimate of the 50 % lower market capitalisation for Apple is predicated on two assumptions:

1) The technology sector and technology companies ares still way overvalued as a whole.

2) There is a 62 % probability that China will invade Taiwan, which could annihilate much of Apple’s current worth.

The sooner Apple diversifies its production and innovation chain, the better.

Crypto Is Undervalued on Blockchain

Bitcoin’s intrinsic value is 170 billion USD according to my projections.

Blockchain is a nonlinear way to model dynamic systems and it is invaluable.

Bitcoin provides efficiency, scale, financial innovation and ultimately exponentially more production with fewer resources.

And yes, Bitcoin does have intrinsic value.

Tesla's Intrinsic Worth Is 120 billion USD. I estimate

Tesla's stock price fell circa 11 % in yesterday's trading session on the Nasdaq bourse.

Tesla's market capitalisation currently sits at 341.86B USD, capitalisation which is sill close to more than the current market capitalisation of the remaining automobile manufacturing industry.

And Tesla was worth 1.24 trillion USD just one year ago.

According to my estimates, Tesla is worth 120 billion USD and in my personal view this reflects the value of the electrical vehicle production technology, mainly. The technology know-how, expertise, actually. And the highly educated and experienced, often brilliant Tesla workforce, especially in Artificial Intelligence, AI areas.

Because, outside carbon credits Tesla is still barely profitable. Tesla has some cash financing left, but without a huge cash injection or breakthrough in electric car production technology, which makes electric cars manufacturing actually profitable, Tesla could easily stop being a going concern or go out of business, to put it plainly.

The human factor with Elon Musk is huge driver for Tesla's value. If Musk's brilliance is employed fully for Tesla's benefit, Tesla could actually achieve its lofty aim of disrupting vehicle manufacturing and thus the world economy.

Stocks That Could Benefit if China Invades Taiwan. Subjective probability of 62 %

 

If China invades Taiwan, which probability I put at 62 % currently, the Nasdaq Coposite Index will simply be decimated.

Apple, which is one of the main drivers of the Nasdaq Composite stocks universe could fall 80 % in the space of two weeks or 10 trading days.

Warren Buffett controlled conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate, which invests in Apple Inc. as around 43 % of its stock investments portfolio could be hurt directly as well. Although Berkshire Hathaway's major business is insurance, Berkshire Hathaway owns a diverse portfolio of many other businesses like energy, manufacturing, retail, furniture etc.

Trouble for Warren Buffett controlled Berkshire Hathaway could quickly spill to the rest of the US economy and also the global economy.

What is more part form Apple, many other chipmakers' stocks prices like AMD, NVIDIA, Taiwan Semiconductors will be hurt hurrendously if China invades Taiwan.

Taiwan produces 62 % of all computer microprocessing chips and 90 % of the most powerful computer chips.

Since computer chips are the brain of computers and computing is the bedrock of technology, technology stocks' market capitalisation can fall 60 % measure by the Nasdaq Composite.

And since technology is an integral engine of almost every business, the S&P 500 index can fall 45 % from the current level, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average can dive 30 % from its current point level.

Basically, all stocks globally can sell off initially, if China invades Taiwan.

Afterwards, defence industry stocks like 

• Lockheed Martin Corp. ( ... 
• General Dynamics Corp. ( ... 
• AeroVironment Inc. ( ... 
• Raytheon Technologies Corp. ( ... 
• BWX Technologies Inc. ( ... 
• Woodward Inc. ( ... 
• Heico Corp. (

can show good, market beating performance. A bit later agriculture stocks could outperform and a bit later oil and gas stocks should continue to outperform.

Gold and silver mining stocks are an interesting case. With higher rates, prices of both gold and silver miners are suppressed. But if global central banks start to loosen or hold a bit the tightening and the USD depreciates more the stocks of gold and silver mining companies could rise in value a lot.

Oil Valuation. Russia Ukraine Conflict.

I estimate oil's intrinsic worth to to be 140 USD a barrel in the next 7 years.

The only reason the price of oil has not exploded to above 140 USD so far is the appreciation of the United Stated Dollar.

I agree partially with JPMorgan's forecast that the price of a barrel of oil could reach 180 USD.

If Russia, which supplies around 16 % of the world's oil output suddenly decreases its oil production or stops producing oil altogether the price of oil could easily top 250 USD per barrel.

Plunging the world into a recession.

Goldman Sachs could prove right that we are in another commodities super cycle. 

And the Russia - Ukraine conflict could easily escalate further. Countries like Poland, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Serbia, Bulgaria, China etc. have long gritted their teeth, harbouring ambitions for currently foreign territories they consider their own or at least part of their people, cultural heritage.

Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan could prove spot on.

Wall Street research could actually prove quite good! 😀

Actually, there are quite good, even brilliant people working in Wall Street research departments, who if left in an unbiased environment could produce actually brilliant/genius research forecasts.

The COVID 19, Coronavirus Outbreak in China. Moderna Valuation.

 

There are reports that around 37 million people are infected with COVID 19, coronavirus in China. A day.

It seems Chinese authorities are letting COVID run freely in China and the results are obvious.

If COVID 19 in China gets out of control the global economy will go in to a deep and prolonged recession -> something like 3 % to 5 % yearly declines in GDP for several years.

Or simply put, the coronavirus running rampant in China could trigger an economic depression.

Moderna and BiONTech will benefit immensely from the current COVID 19 outbreak in China, in my opinion.

The Chinese COVID 19, coronavirus vaccines made by Chinese companies are not deemed as effective as Moderna and BiONTech COVID 19 shots, according to many sources.

Moderna, especially, due to the fact that it is the pioneer in messengerRNA technology and producer of arguably the most effective COVID 19, coronavirus vaccines could see huge, extraordinary increases in revenue and profits and by extension of its market capitalisation.

Moderna is currently valued at circa 77 billion USD by public markets.

In my opinion, the intrinsic value of Moderna, also predicted on the current COVID 19 outbreak in China is around 300 billion USD.

MessengerRNA is the technological future of medicine and Moderna is the proven pioneer in mRNA.

Crypto's Ecosystem. Bitcoin or Ethereum?

Many tout Ethereum as the de facto cryptocurrencies' ecosystem, since ETH provides software environment for building crypto applications.

Actually, I think Bitcoin is more the sort of ecosystem, the crypto world needs. Bitcoin acts as means of exchange, unit of account and store of value or electronic money of sort.

Via Bitcoin's store and increase of value many other cryptocurrencies are issued and priced off Bitcoin and thus many young nascent companies can finance their projects efficiently with crypto.

Ethereum, on the other hand provides an App Store version of application environment for the crypto world, which is also extremely valuable. Via Ethereum crypto programmers can cooperate, talk, discuss and ultimately build world change crypto applications.

In short, Bitcoin is the jet engine and Ethereum is the ocean for cryptocurrencies's growth.

Crypto has a bright future, as far as I am concerned.

Warren Buffett's Investment Portfolio Analysis

Circa 77 % Berkshire Hathaway, the conglomerate run by Warren Buffett stocks portfolio is concentrated in just 6 stocks.

Apple Inc with 38.5 % share, Bank of America with 10.3 %, Chevron Corporation with 9.0 %, Coca Cola with 7.9 %, American Express with 6.9 %, Kraft Heinz with 4.7 %.

And Apple Inc stands out with a 38.5 % share.

In my humble opinion, this lack of diversification is imprudent.

If China invades Taiwan, the probability of which happening I would rate at more than 50 % currently, Apple's market capitalisation could go down by 70 % or more in the space of several weeks. This is due to the fact that much of the components for Apple's iPhones, Macs, iPads are manufactured in Taiwan and China.

Yes, I can see what Warren Buffett is doing. He thinks Apple, Bank of America, Chevron and Coca Cola are well run, have inertia, very high profit margins, very good production processes supported by hundreds of thousands of competent, hardworking people employed by these companies.

In short, the aforementioned companies are too big to fail. 

Not in war times, in my opinion! In war times some of these companies could become too big to bail.

Apple - large, institutional type of stock. Buffett uses it, I estimate also to extract information of the habits, fin-tech and financial services consumption of millennials.

Bak of America - a play on the US large corporations, midsize corporations and Wall Street.

Chevron - a US, but also global energy consumption play.

Coca Cola - an emerging markets low-priced high calories intake play.

American Express - a US credit card credit play.

In short, Warren Buffett is betting heavily on the United States of America or he is betting heavily that there will be no catastrophic event literally destroying America's economy.

Yes, this "trick" has worked, because since 1933 the world had not experienced a Great Economic Depression.

The above betting on a "lack of catastrophic US economic risk" I have to credit Professor Aswath Damodaran, who mentioned it, I read it first by him, analysed it and here I mentioned it above.

Actually, a nuclear war is a catastrophe. And I would estimate the probability of a nuclear war occurring currently at something like 12 %.

To be positive and constructive, though, even if an economic catastrophe befalls USA, the above stocks, which comprise the largest part of Warren Buffet run Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio should be able to withstand and outperform even.

Crypto's Risk

 

The risk of Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies is considered high.

And yes, if measured by standard deviation or volatility Bitcoin is riskier than the major stocks and even smaller capitalisation stocks.

However, Bitcoin exhibits jump like upward optionality. Translation - even when risk taken into account, Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies seem undervalued.

The main reason for the higher risk of Bitcoin and other crypto is the lower liquidity in the cryptocurrencies market compared to US common stocks.

However, higher risk is usually associated with higher opportunity.

Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras Valuation

Petroleo Brasileiro or Petrobras is the largest oil company in Brazil and one of the largest oil producing companies in the world.

Petrobras is currently valued at 63.4 billion USD. According to my estimates, the intrinsic value of Petroleo Brasileiro or Petrobras is 300 billion USD.

Petroleo Brasileiro or Petrobras is a deep sea oil driller. At around 57 USD or more price of oil Petrobras is profitble.

I think the price of oil could easily surpass 140 USD in 3 years time on oil supply disruptions due to the military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine.

In addition, the dividends yield on Petroleo Brasileiro or Petrobras currently stands at 63 %.

Petroleo Brasileiro or Petrobras is a classic Benjamin Graham value, undervalued stock. I think Petrobras would also fit Warren Buffett's investment criteria.

In general, I think oil and hydrocarbon's demise and decline in general, if not premature is exaggerated.

Green energy is simply not ready.

Petroleo Brasileiro or Petrobras carries a political risk, of course, with the socialist inclination of the current government in Brazil.

In short, however Petroleo Brasileiro or Petrobras is a classic, undervalued, huge recurring revenue and profitability company.

Tesla Valuation. Now that Elon Musk Is Busy With Twitter

I estimate Tesla is worth 120 billion USD.

However, Tesla could go bankrupt now that Elon Musk is busy with Twitter.

Actually, Twitter's implied political influence could be of use for Tesla.

I personally think Tesla is a binary outcome:

1) Tesla's engineers figure a way out to produce electric vehicles with profit. If this happens, Tesla's value could go to 1.2 trillion USD

2) Tesla stays largely unprofitable without subsidies and goes bankrupt. 

GitLab Valuation. After the 60 % Fall. December 2022

GitLab the online code repository that is quickly gaining traction among developers worldwide is valued at 4.23 billion USD by public markets currently. GitLab is undervalued, I think.

According to my estimates, GitLab's intrinsic value is around 25 billion USD for the next 5-7 years.

I write up until 7 years because the prospects of technology companies change very quickly nowadays.

Companies like Siemens, Goldman Sachs and organisations like NASA use GitLab for software development.

And due to the efficiency of GitLab's product offering many small and medium enterprises mainly in technology and many other industries also are paying for and using GitLab's product.

Now that GitHub is owned by Microsoft, many techies regard GitHub as bureaucratic since it is part of a big, slow-moving bureaucratic technology behemoth of a company like Microsoft.

Actually, the market for code repository, which includes team collaboration, code production, review and testing is not saturated in my humble opinion. GitHub and GitLab are the main players.

Personally, I think there is hundreds of billions of USD waiting to be unlocked and triggered in the software production market. Because code repository in practice assembles the world technologists' knowledge and structures and organises it in an accessible and efficient way.

Code collaboration sites like GitLab are actually Infrastructure as a Service, IaaS offering, which is the largest part of the cloud computing market.

Cloud computing market size is currently estimate at 414.23 billion USD, Infrastructure as a Service, IaaS cloud at 117.30 billion USD and projected to rise to 881.90 billion USD, Infrastructure as a Service, IaaS cloud at 327.50 billion USD in 2027.

Although cloud computing market growth rates will be undoubtedly affected by the current economic crisis, the figures above represent a huge opportunity for GitLab.

Will Bitcoin Or Other Cryptocurrencies Ever Distribute Dividends?

One of the counterarguments against investing in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is that cryptocurrencies do not distribute dividends.

I have not seen Amazon, Meta, formerly Facebook or Alphabet, named previously Google distribute dividends, but that does not prevent Amazon, Alphabet or Meta being valued only until recently at + 1 trillion USD each and around 5 trillion USD altogether.

Even Warren Buffett who is a fan of dividend distributing companies has bought more than 1 billion USD shares in Nubank, a Brazilian crypto bank.

Valuations or value in the end is all about human perspectives. And humans perceive something as valuable when it actually brings value, cost savings, wealth increase or pleasure to them. Yes, I know the tulip bulb mania, the dot-com bust, the 2008 housing bubble etc. Many of the companies therein ended up worth zero and they bankrupted.

I doubt Bitcoin will have the same fate, since the package of efficiencies or cost savings Bitcoin and crypto create is simply too large and broad.

And since cryptocurrencies outside Bitcoin are actually tokens on a company's project,  companies issuing cryptocurrencies could easily have their crypto tokens distribute dividend payments.