Stocks That Could Benefit if China Invades Taiwan. Subjective probability of 62 %

 

If China invades Taiwan, which probability I put at 62 % currently, the Nasdaq Coposite Index will simply be decimated.

Apple, which is one of the main drivers of the Nasdaq Composite stocks universe could fall 80 % in the space of two weeks or 10 trading days.

Warren Buffett controlled conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate, which invests in Apple Inc. as around 43 % of its stock investments portfolio could be hurt directly as well. Although Berkshire Hathaway's major business is insurance, Berkshire Hathaway owns a diverse portfolio of many other businesses like energy, manufacturing, retail, furniture etc.

Trouble for Warren Buffett controlled Berkshire Hathaway could quickly spill to the rest of the US economy and also the global economy.

What is more part form Apple, many other chipmakers' stocks prices like AMD, NVIDIA, Taiwan Semiconductors will be hurt hurrendously if China invades Taiwan.

Taiwan produces 62 % of all computer microprocessing chips and 90 % of the most powerful computer chips.

Since computer chips are the brain of computers and computing is the bedrock of technology, technology stocks' market capitalisation can fall 60 % measure by the Nasdaq Composite.

And since technology is an integral engine of almost every business, the S&P 500 index can fall 45 % from the current level, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average can dive 30 % from its current point level.

Basically, all stocks globally can sell off initially, if China invades Taiwan.

Afterwards, defence industry stocks like 

• Lockheed Martin Corp. ( ... 
• General Dynamics Corp. ( ... 
• AeroVironment Inc. ( ... 
• Raytheon Technologies Corp. ( ... 
• BWX Technologies Inc. ( ... 
• Woodward Inc. ( ... 
• Heico Corp. (

can show good, market beating performance. A bit later agriculture stocks could outperform and a bit later oil and gas stocks should continue to outperform.

Gold and silver mining stocks are an interesting case. With higher rates, prices of both gold and silver miners are suppressed. But if global central banks start to loosen or hold a bit the tightening and the USD depreciates more the stocks of gold and silver mining companies could rise in value a lot.