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Disclaimer: The blog posts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is". The blog is stocks analysis and valuation, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, Artificial Intelligence, AI, deep-learning focused. Independent, unbiased AI insights. Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blog posts on this blog and posts on social networks. Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blog post and posts on social networks! The blog is property of Wolfteam Ltd. www.wolfteamedge.com Respectfully yours, Petar Posledovich

Saturday, January 25, 2025

Carlyle Valuation


Carlyle Group Inc or Carlyle, the global private equity, private credit investment management firm is undervalued according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

Carlyle's intrinsic worth is 47 billion USD, compared with Carlyle's current market capitalization of 20.33 billion USDs, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

Carlyle reported 4.393 billion USD in revenues and 809.5 million USDs in profit for the first nine months of 2024:

s) 3Q'23 3Q'24 YTD 3Q'23 YTD 3Q'24
REVENUES
Fund management fees $ 502.6 $ 532.7 $ 1,511.2 $ 1,590.7
Incentive fees 21.1 38.7 61.9 96.2
Investment income (loss), including performance allocations (17.7) 1,831.5 (99.2) 2,033.9
Revenue from consolidated entities 152.7 180.1 411.7 510.6
All other revenues 57.9 52.2 152.1 161.9
Total Revenues 716.6 2,635.2 2,037.7 4,393.3
EXPENSES
Cash-based compensation and benefits 267.6 207.5 798.4 635.7
Equity-based compensation 64.4 121.6 186.8 355.1
Performance allocations and incentive fee related compensation (53.9) 1,151.0 (40.4) 1,222.4
General, administrative and other expenses 143.0 176.6 470.7 512.2
Expenses from consolidated entities 102.5 162.0 298.3 438.7
Interest and other non-operating expenses 31.5 30.2 92.0 91.3
Total Expenses 555.1 1,848.9 1,805.8 3,255.4
Net investment income (loss) of consolidated funds (9.3) 2.5 9.9 (9.6)
Income (loss) before provision for income taxes1 152.2 788.8 241.8 1,128.3
Provision (benefit) for income taxes 41.2 173.1 68.2 264.5
Net income (loss) 111.0 615.7 173.6 863.8
Net income attributable to non-controlling interests 29.7 20.0 90.0 54.3
Net income (loss) attributable to The Carlyle Group Inc. Common Stockholders $ 81.3 $ 595.7 $ 83.6 $ 809.5
Net income (loss) attributable to The Carlyle Group Inc. per common share:
Basic $ 0.23 $ 1.67 $ 0.23 $ 2.26
Diluted $ 0.22 $ 1.63 $ 0.23 $ 2.21
Income (loss) before provision for taxes margin2 21.2 % 29.9 % 11.9 % 25.7 %
Effective tax rate 27.1 % 21.9 % 28.2 % 23.4 %
Net performance revenues3 $ (64.4) $ 634.5 $ (163.9) $ 604.3
Carlyle Third Quarter 2024 U.S. GAAP Results

Carlyle's assets under management are 447 billion USD, while 95 billion USDs are so called perpetual capital, which are insurance fees from the global investment solutions business of Carlyle. Such insurance premium fees are stable in nature and could be invested for the long-term.

Wall Street equity research analysts put in 0, zero when they model the future private equity, credit returns on investment of Carlyle. This is a farfetched assumption, in Wolfteam Ltd.'s view. Carlyle and other global private equity investment management firms have proven they can make returns on their investments, many a times in excess of the average Standard and Poor's 500 index yearly return.

That is why Carlyle holds huge unlocked value. Carlyle's fundraising is strong, raising tens of billion of USDs for investments throughout 2024. In addition, like many of the other leading private equity firms Carlyle has invested in technology related firms like data management infrastructure centers and other AI technology infrastructure firms. The technology sector lead by the Magnificent 7 or Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla and Netflx has ridden strongly the AI wave and the technology sector move higher looks set to continue.

Carlyle has invested much of its private equity funds in technology adjacent, artificial intelligence, AI especially businesses and Carlyle could unlock tens of billions of USDs in value in the next 2-3 years as the private capital markets boom continues, facilitated by AI technology.

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