It depends, is my short answer.
Largely on the Federal Reserve and the reactions of people around the world.
Yes, this time around shareholders and junior bondholders are getting wiped out.
But didn't they get wiped out in the Great Recession in 2008-2009.
No matter how much capital you hold, banking is a leveraged business.
That is, if you are not leveraged, you are not a bank. Or you are not able to do maturity transformation.
The Federal Reserve cannot save all!
There must be some lessons learned.
Currently, I put the probability of a global financial crisis at 35 %.
Everything is conditional on the central authority - Federal Reserve's actions and the way ordinary people react.
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