Tesla, according to my estimates, is worth 120 billion USD. This compares with its current market capitalisation of 777.65 billion USD.
Basically, Tesla's value hangs on a binary outcome. Either Tesla achieves a technological breakthrough, starts producing electric vehicles profitably and ends up being worth more than 300 billion USD or Tesla burns out of investors' money and the only thing left from the electric vehicle pioneer is its technology.
Personally, I think something in between will happen. Tesla will make some technological advances but will still not end up with a finished technology which can manufacture electric cars profitably, without subsidies. So that is why I think Tesla is worth 120 billion USD - either Apple or some other large company will buy up Tesla and further develop the technology to produce profitably electric vehicles and achieve at least partially the promise of electric vehicles. This is what happened in many other technology sectors like search engines - first Yahoo was the pioneer, then Google won. In social media - MySpace was also a leader, then Facebook came to dominate social networking.
Until then the price of Tesla's stock will be driven mainly by hype, rumours, news and both institutional and retail investors's hopes for a better green future.
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