The Coronavirus disease COVID-19 is decimating the global economy and whole countries and continents along.
How bad can the global economy get?
I forecast global GDP will fall somewhere between 3% to 4% in 2020. The Eurozone GDP will fall by 5% to 7% in 2020. US GDP will fall 3% to 5% in 2020. China's GDP could record anywhere from a growth of 1% to a contraction of 2%.
The major US stock market indices could fall 50%, while the Nasdaq decline could touch 70%. Europe's major stock indices could easily fall between 50% to 70%. Asia's stock market indices could fall more than 50%. The Chinese stock market indices could fall 70%.
However, when all of this ends, this will be one of the greatest buying opportunities in history. We, as mankind, should just muscle through this, survive and ultimately prosper.
Sectors like healthcare, communication services, consumer staples and utilities will most probably record the smallest losses. While energy, leisure, consumer discretionary, materials(base metals commodities), travel, financials, industrials, transportation and unprofitable technology companies will be hurt horrendously. Real estate is an interesting case. It should record losses somewhere in the middle between the two extremes.
Disclaimer:
The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social
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are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an
offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".
Petar
Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred
by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social
networks.
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Respectfully yours,
Petar Posledovich
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