The Coronavirus Crisis. A Stock Market Forecast

Dear Reader,


I am of the more positive kind regarding the current coronavirus crisis and its effects on US stock markets especially.

I forecast that the coronavirus will pass through its most acute stage by the end of June 2020. By then a vaccine development for the coronavirus should be close. I forecast US and global stock market indices will not suffer a lot during this coronavirus crisis. The sentiment on stock markets is just too positive. For the global stock markets to seriously correct a serious fall in global GDP should happen. I envisage this to happen in only one way in the current let's say investment euphoria. A fall in global GDP could only be caused by fear. Fear of losing the profits achieved since 2009. Many investors that were active in the markets since 2009 have generated very good returns. Many of them are looking for a catalyst to sell their holdings and realize paper gains. As is known, US citizens are active participants in the stock market. And if the US stock market should fall driven by fear by something like 30% this will trigger a chain of negative events like defaults on bank loans, bankruptcies which will ultimately dampen consumer optimism. And as is known consumer expenditures make up 70% of US GDP.

I forecast the wave of negative consumer sentiment will happen in 2021 after Donald Trump is safely enthroned in his second Presidential mandate. After that happens, the US presidential administration and the Federal Reserve will not be so keen to support the economy any longer and a US and then global economic recession will come. With the recession or may be preceding the recession in 2021 US stock market indices will fall by more than 30% and the Nasdaq composite will fall by even more than 40%.

As of now, I do not think investors should rush and sell their common stocks holdings in major markets like USA, Europe and Asia.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich