Here I am going to refresh my attempt to value Tesla, Inc. the electric automobile manufacturer.
Currently Tesla is valued by the market at 43.25 bln. USD and trades at 231.43 USD per share. Is this valuation justified? No. I think Tesla is currently worth somewhere about 25 bln. USD or circa 40% below its current valuation.
Why? Because Tesla has not shown it can be a profitable company. If you take tesla Net Income results for 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 it turns out Tesla has lost the staggering amount of circa 4.5 billion USD for these four years. In 2018 Tesla had a net loss of 976.01 mln. USD. At best Tesla could be a niche producer of a niche product like electric automobiles. So there is some value in Tesla currently. In the next 2-3 years I do not think Tesla's stock price could go down to zero. Tesla's production technology has some value. So according to my calculations Tesla is worth circa 135 USD per share in the next 2-3 years.
There is always the opportunity that a technological breakthrough can be achieved and producing electric cars can become a profitable business. What is more, if Tesla can achieve enough economies of scale by raising production of its electric automobiles Tesla could still reach profitability. So I do think there is still value in Tesla. I think Tesla is worth about 25 billion USD currently.
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Petar
Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred
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Respectfully yours,
Petar Posledovich
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