French Elections, US Stocks, Technology Stocks, Bunds!

Dear Reader,


I expect a right-centrist candidate to win the French Presidential elections. It will be eithor Macron or Fillon who wins the second round.

I expect French government bonds to rally hard, together with a milder rally of European stocks.

The rally in US stocks should continue. US technology stocks are richly valued, but because of the smartphone and the ensuing artificial intelligence boom their rally should continue.

German 10 year government bonds yield is to remain below 0.30% in the next several months. If Marine Le Pen becomes President of France, I expect the 10 year yield on bunds to fall below -0.30%.

US WTI oil could fall below 45 USD on US shale supply.

Despite the Federal Reserve raising the Federal Funds Rate, I expect gold to rally decisively in 2017 on safe heaven demand. There are just too many Black Swans - France, North Korea etc.

EUR/USD is to remain in a tight range in the next few weeks.


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Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!


Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich