Dear Reader,
It has been an eventful week, hasn't it. Uprisings in Tunsia, Egypt, Libiya, Yemen etc. Basically, the whole Middle East is about to fold into chaos...
Is this good or bad for investments? Volatility is always good for short-term traders!
Main themes: Oil, Stocks, Agriculture, Gold, Silver.
The price of oil spiked more than 10%. People thought the prices of agriculture are skyrocketing. Chaos ensued and investors sold aggresively wheat, corn, soybeans etc. 'Every cloud has a silver lining'
Stocks, especially in Europe, recorded heavy losses? How to play these events?
An obvious choice is oil companies who do not have large operations in the Middle East-> Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Lukoil, companies doing business in the canadaian oil sands. Gold is another excellent choice. When the world looks like it might end, people turned historically to gold. For the next couple of weeks, I think 'risk is back on'. Investors will flee risky assets as stocks, commodities and go to the safety of US and German government bonds. Here I should warn if states in the US are allowed to fail or countries in Europe default, even bonds will sell off aggresively. Agriculture will go down again. Everything depends on whether the Libiyan situation will be resolved soon and if Saudi Arabia is thrown in turmoil. An investment bank recently published an article, quoting a price for oil above $200 if the unrest spreads to Saudi Arabia...
Personal view on the markets: Buy OIL in the form of futures or ETFs. Buy GOLD. Buy swiss franc.
Buy out of the money put options (1 year until strike) on the S&P, DJIA and Nasdaq.
Sell Wheat, Corn, Soy beans.
The positions are with a time span of 1 week, since today.
Disclaimer: At the moment, I do not have any positions in oil, gold, wheat, corn, soy beans and their derivatives. I have neither any option trades on, nor have I bought swiss franc currency crosses, or stocks of the energy companies mentioned in the analysis! I do not plan to enter in the afore mentioned trades in the next 72 hours.
Petar Posledovich
Stocks valuations, analysis. Unbiased. Insightful. Property of Wolfteam Ltd., www.wolfteamedge.com If you find the blog useful, LINK TO www.posledovich.blogspot.com Stocks, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, AI, analysis, insights. CLICK ADVERTISEMENTS, SHARE ON SOCIAL NETWORKS! Technology, Bitcoin, AI, company strategy, stocks analysis. Stocks, crypto involve high RISK! Nothing on this blog is meant or should be construed as investment recommendation to buy or sell securities or their derivatives!
Disclaimer:
Disclaimer: The blog posts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".
The blog is stocks analysis and valuation, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, Artificial Intelligence, AI, deep-learning focused. Independent, unbiased AI insights.
Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blog posts on this blog and posts on social networks.
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blog post and posts on social networks!
The blog is property of Wolfteam Ltd. www.wolfteamedge.com
Respectfully yours,
Petar Posledovich
Sunday, February 27, 2011
The preivious week: 'Power to the people' and oil spiked!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Sunday, January 30, 2011
Refresh :-)
Hi,
I haven't written for a while in the blog, have I...?
I haven't written for a while in the blog, have I...?
I am going to start posting on financial markets regularly again!
I would post investment recommendations about taking positions in financial instruments: stocks, ETFs and options in particular.
Since ETFs on various asset classes are traded on the global exchanges (NYSE, being the leader, of course) I am going to cover the whole spectrum of asset classes -> stocks, options, fixed income, forex, commodities, volatility and arbitrage strategies!
Bit by bit, I will start posting my views in (short) daily notes for the next trading day and longer weekly views for the next week of trading.
Please be advised, that at first I will not have the time to trade every position I take, since I am working fulltime for a financial institution. But in time I will 'put my mouth where my money is'!
Since ETFs on various asset classes are traded on the global exchanges (NYSE, being the leader, of course) I am going to cover the whole spectrum of asset classes -> stocks, options, fixed income, forex, commodities, volatility and arbitrage strategies!
Bit by bit, I will start posting my views in (short) daily notes for the next trading day and longer weekly views for the next week of trading.
Please be advised, that at first I will not have the time to trade every position I take, since I am working fulltime for a financial institution. But in time I will 'put my mouth where my money is'!
P.S. My belief is that markets are dynamic. So it is (extremely) difficult to predict them for longer time spans. They should be modelled dynamically, which is not done at the moment in (theoretical) financial literature. My views will change and adapt constantly with news and price flow!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Saturday, October 4, 2008
Markets Fall Again
Maintaining short on FNM, FRE and long on WMT
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Friday, October 3, 2008
Realise the Profit
Close the FRE,FNM short and the WMT long risk arbitrage positions with a profit
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Falling Markets Again
We are witnessing continuation of the slump in financial markets.
Short FRE, FNM and long WMT (Wall Mart Stores)
Short FRE, FNM and long WMT (Wall Mart Stores)
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Posledovich Asset Management
Hi,
Here I am going to post my investment ideas for trading the global financial markets.
I am going to post results of the investment recommendations.
Here I am going to post my investment ideas for trading the global financial markets.
I am going to post results of the investment recommendations.
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
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