How High Can Alphabet, Google Owner's Market Capitalization Go In An AI Positive Case?

 

If the current overly optimistic forecasts of Wall Street research analysts, investors and Silicon Valley technologists, investors for artificial intelligence, AI come true and AI ends up changing our world by improving greatly, multiple times our productivity Alphabet, Google owner's market capitalization could climb to 14.7 trillion USDs, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

Alphabet's current market capitalization is 3.61 trillion USDs.  

Gemini, Alphabet's Large Language Model has 600 million  monthly active users and it is second only to OpenAI's ChatGPT Large Language Model with its 800 million monthly active users.

Large Language Models like Gemini and ChatGPT are essentially enhanced, improved search engines, for the moment at least. A Large Language Model needs data to train itself on and Alphabet, via its property search engine Google arguably has the most powerful and encompassing data base in the world. So Gemini potentially could end up to be the best trained Large Language Model. Which will benefit extremely Alphabet, Google's owner.

Because it is clear already that Large Language Models like ChatGPT, Gemini, xAI's Grok, Meta's LLAMA tend to monopolize the interest much like Yahoo, Google and Facebook did in their time.

So, if artificial intelligence, AI lives up to the current forecasts, it would not be surprising if Alphabet, Google's owner ends up with 14.7 trillion USD in market capitalization, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

Meta and Microsoft, as the main shareholder in OpenAI could also end up being worth trillions of USDs more than their current market capitalization. xAI could also end up being worth more than a trillion USDs in value, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

 

How High Can Apollo's Market Capitalization Go In An AI Positive Case?

Apollo Global Management, the leading private equity, real estate and private credit asset management firm could reach 450 billion USDs in market capitalization, if artificial intelligence, AI lives up to the current forecasts of many Wall Street research analysts, investors and Silicon Valley technologists and investors, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

Apollo has invested large share of its private equity, real estate and private credit assets under management in AI technology companies, AI data centers and online merchandise infrastructure. Since only small part of Apollo's company investments are via equity and the much larger part is in debt, Apollo's AI investments are leveraged in nature. Add to this AI technology companies' operational leverage and if AI changes the world as profoundly as many Wall Street research analysts, investors and Silicon Valley technologists and investors think, Apollo's investments in AI gains will be multiplied and Apollo's value will increase multiple fold.

However, if the AI boom turns into a bust, Apollo's losses could be magnified as well.

In the short-term, it seems the AI boom will continue. But it has to lead to AI technology company profitability, if it is to have a lasting effect on the world, in Wolfteam Ltd.'s view.

 

How High Can Carlyle's Market Capitalization Go In An AI Positive Case?

 

Carlyle, the private equity, real estate and private credit asset management firm could reach 102 billion USDs in market capitalization if artificial intelligence, AI lives up to the current forecasts of Wall Street research analysts, investors and Silicon Valley investors and technologists, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

This compares with Carlyle's current market capitalization of 19.28 billion USDs.

Carlyle, along with the other leading  private equity, real estate and private credit asset management firms invests heavily tens of billions of USDs in technology companies, artificial intelligence infrastructure like data centers and online merchandising delivery centers giving it leveraged exposure to artificial intelligence, AI since Carlyle finances only a portion with equity, most with borrowed debt via loans or bonds.

Carlyle's stock price has under performed lately and if artificial intelligence, AI continues booming, most probably Carlyle's market capitalization will start growing due to the leveraged nature of Carlyle's investments in AI. Carlyle is a leader in private credit and currently interest rates on loans to AI technology companies often exceed 12 % or even 15 % per year. Which turns private credit in a very profitable machine for Carlyle.

 

What If AI Turns Out To Be A Bubble?

 

If the current artificial intelligence, AI boom proves to be a bubble, the Nasdaq Composite could fall more than 81 % from its current level, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

Currently, according to many metrics the Nasdaq Composite current level is almost at the level of the Nasdaq Composite at the height of the Dot Com bubble. From peek to trough at the 2000 Dot Com bubble and subsequent bust the Nasdaq Composite fell 77 %.

This time around, if the AI bubble bursts, the fall of the Nasdaq Composite could be a little bit worst, in Wolfteam Ltd.'s view.

It is true that the leading technology companies with more than 1.35 trillion USDs in market capitalization each, like NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Tesla are extremely profitable, partially excluding Tesla due to its relatively low profitability. But Cisco and Microsoft were hugely profitable during the Dot Com boom also. In 2000 it turned out that that level of profitability was simply unsustainable. The leading technology companies in 2000 invested a lot in fiber optic infrastructure and the world needed decades to fully utilize that internet infrastructure.

It turned out that the technology giants in the 2000 boom over invested in internet technology infrastructure in the short-term, which hit their profits. But in the long-term, 10-15 years that over investment turned out good for society and the technology community.

Similarly now the hyperscalers Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta are spending 100s of billions of USD per year in artificial intelligence, AI infrastructure. It may well turn out that in the short-run  hyperscalers Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta are over investing, but in 10-15 years the AI infrastructure they are now building may be fully utilized.

In the worst case scenario, the graphical processing unites chips mainly NVIDIA manufactures in the current AI data centers could turn out to be obsolete in 5 years, replaced by newer, with far better technology GPU chips. Which will deprecate the value of the current AI data centers and hit the  hyperscalers Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta with hundreds of billions USDs of losses.

Such a scenario at the moment has a probability of around 25 %, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

If the AI dreams of robots everywhere, billions of robots serving humanity and AI data changing our lives, how produce and consume leisure come to fruition in the most optimistic scenarios of Wall Street research analysts, investors and Silicon Valley investors and technologists, NVIDIA, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Tesla could prove grossly undervalued.

 

How High Can KKR's Market Capitalization Go On AI?

KKR, the leading private, real estate and private credit alternative asset manager could climb to 320 billion USDs in market capitalization value, if artificial intelligence, AI lives up to the current forecasts of many Wall Street research analysts, investors and Silicon Valley technologists, because KKR is a leading investor in AI data centers, online merchandise trading infrastructure and outright investments in AI technology growth and mature companies, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

That compares to KKR's current 108.09 billion marker capitalization. 

KKR's revenue could climb from the current 16 billion USD on average for the last five years to 43 billion USDs on average on larger and bigger in numbers yearly deals in artificial intelligence, where much of the leading private, real estate and private credit alternative asset manager investments go currently via investments in AI data centers, online merchandise trading infrastructure and outright investments in AI technology growth and mature companies, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

KKR could benefit from both its current exposure to AI and future increase of the value and number of deals involving artificial intelligence, AI companies.

AI's current boom could turn into a bust of course, but for the time being self perpetuating expectations and the higher revenues and profits of AI firms drive the AI boom and the flourishing of AI technology companies. 

 

 

How High Can Microsoft's Market Capitalization Go On Artificial Intelligence?

Microsoft's market capitalization could reach 11.5 trillion USD in 10 years if Artificial Intelligence, AI lives up to the current high expectations of Wall Street analysts, investors and Silicon Valley technologists, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

Microsoft's current market capitalization is 3.67 trillion USD.

In 10 years time Microsoft's revenue could reach 500 billion USD and with the current net profit margin of 36 % this would make for a net yearly profit of 180 billion USD, in Wolfteam Ltd.'s view. Even at such revenue and profit a possible future Microsoft market capitalization of 11.5 trillion USD will make for circa 64 Price/Earnings ratio which still makes up for a significant future growth.

AI could still yet prove a bubble, but in the mean time the leading technology companies could reach stratospheric values in market capitalization. 

 

 

 

How High Can Apple's Market Capitalization Go In An AI Positive Case?

 

Apple's market capitalization could reach 18 trillion USDs if AI reaches its full potential and transforms society as forecast currently by many Wall Street research analysts, investors and Silicon Valley technologists.

That compares to Apple's current market capitalization of 4.01 trillion USDs. 

Apple would have to report 700 billion USDs in annual revenue and 180 billion USD in annual profit in 10 years to justify 18 trillion USDs market capitalization, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

The main driver of such a revenue increase will be iPhone, Macintosh and iPad sales, which would be one of the main carriers of the current artificial intelligence, AI revolution, if AI lives up to its current hype.

 

 

 

How High Can Blackstone's Market Capitalization Go In An AI Positive Case?

 

Blackstone Inc, the leading private equity, real estate, private credit alternative asset manager along with the other KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares,  Blue Owl, CVC, etc. leading private equity, private credit, real estate alternative asset managers is at the forefront of investing, investments in artificial, AI.

If artificial intelligence, AI lives up to the current of most Wall Street research analysts and investors estimates to 80 %, that Blackstone's market capitalization, as the leading alternative asset manager investing in AI, could rise to 1.1 trillion USDs in 5 to 7 years, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates. 

That compares to Blackstone's current market capitalization of circa 175 billion USDs. 

Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, CVC, Blue Owl Capital, etc. leading private equity, private credit, real estate alternative asset managers invest large portion, usually more than 35 % of their newly raised and existing funds in artificial intelligence, AI infrastructure like data centers, energy companies.

Just recently, Meta, Facebook's owner announced a 30 billion data center financing bill with Blue Owl Capital .

It is expected that such data center financing structures will proliferate in the future.

Blackstone is expected to remain the largest and leading institutional investor in artificial intelligence in AI, which sooner or later will be reflected in its market capitalization, in Wolfteam Ltd.'s view.

If AI reaches only 30 % of its current estimated potential, Blackstone's market capitalization could fall to 120 billion USD, a circa 30 % of Blackstone's current market capitalization. The fall would be cushioned by Blackstone's portfolio current investments, which are rich cash flow positive and large dividends yielding.

 

How High Can NVIDIA Stock Market Capitalization Go?

 

Currently, the market for AI graphical processing units chips is estimated by various Wall Street analysts to grow to 400 billion USDs by 2029.

NVIDIA controls between 70 % and 95 % of the market for market for AI chips used for training and deploying AI models.

So, If NVIDIA keeps its current market share and reaches 400 billion USD in annual sales by 2035 and one applies the current Price/Sales ratio of circa 30 and increases it to 43, NVIDIA's market capitalization could reach 17.2 trillion USD in the very optimistic case that AI lives up to circa 75 % of its current estimated by Wall Street research analysts and investors potential, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

If, however artificial intelligence, AI's potential lives up only to 30 % of the current estimates, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite indices could fall by 53 %, 64 % and 80 % from their recent peaks.

NVIDIA's market capitalization in AI living up to only 30 % of its potential case could fall 84 % from its recent peak to 714 billion USDs, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.