Disclaimer:

Disclaimer: The blog posts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is". The blog is stocks analysis and valuation, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, Artificial Intelligence, AI, deep-learning focused. Independent, unbiased AI insights. Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blog posts on this blog and posts on social networks. Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blog post and posts on social networks! The blog is property of Wolfteam Ltd. www.wolfteamedge.com Respectfully yours, Petar Posledovich

Saturday, August 16, 2025

Alphabet, Google Owner Is The Most Undervalued Of The Magnificent 7 AI, Technology Companies

 


Alphabet, the owner of the Google search engine is the most undervalued of the so called Magnificent 7 artificial intelligence, AI, technology stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla and NVIDIA, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

Alphabet's intrinsic worth is 10.4 trillion USD, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates. compared to Alphabet's current market capitalization of 2.47 trillion USD.

Alphabet, via Google and its other properties simply possesses arguably the largest amount of data on the planet on which to train its models, Gemini including. And many professors and researchers say data is the new oil. Data feeds the models so they can produce better results.

Alphabet is still yet to monetize fully the gigantic terabytes of data it possesses. The competition from the new competitors in chat based search could be a catalyst for Alphabet to better use its data. Google is still an excellent search engine providing excellent results via which Alphabet gathers even more data.

All the other Magnificent 7 stocks in most cases still have much unlocked value, but not in the multiples Google has.

 

 

Sunday, August 10, 2025

Private Equity Firms AI Technology Investments

 


Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, CVC etc. and other leading private equity firms invest predominantly in mid capitalization technology firms, technology firms with 2 to 10 billion USDs in market capitalization or private market value. Mega capitalization technology firms with market capitalization of above 20 billion USD are too big even for the biggest funds of Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, CVC etc. and other leading technology firms, it seems.

In 2008 we had an almost 80 billion USDs private equity leveraged buyout deal. Those boom times have not returned fully. The biggest leveraged buyouts now are to the tune of 40 billion USDs.

Technology companies can decline in value quickly, that is why Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, CVC etc. are wary of investing too large amounts in technology companies with market capitalization above 50 billion USD. When they do a mega deal or above 20 billion USDs, the leading private equity firms do it in consortium with other leading private equity firms to share the risk.

Sooner or later, there will be a 70 billion USDs or higher technology leveraged buyout, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, CVC etc. are still cautious because they manage foundations, endowments and pension funds' money.

However, there is tremendous value to the tune of tens or even hundreds of billions of USDs of value created in the technology space, related in many cases to artificial intelligence, AI occurring every year since 2014. Such value creation opportunities could prove too tempting for Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, CVC etc. other leading technology firms in the long run.

 

Saturday, August 9, 2025

Are We In An Artificial Intelligence, AI Bubble? Hyperscalers, Magnificent 7 Technology Companies CAPEX Outlays

 


The short answer is yes. We are living in an AI driven stock market and assets bubble. The long answer is the AI bubble could go on inflating for 5-7 years more, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

One of the latest signs of the AI bubble are the 50 mln. USD, 100 mln. USD and even 100 mln. USDs yearly pay packages Mark Zuckerber, Meta's founder and CEO is offering in personal meetings so called leading AI engineers. 

Another sign is the 70 billion USDs capital expenditures in AI data centers Meta and the 100 billion USDs CAPEX in AI related infrastructure Microsoft is planning. On top of that Alphabet, the Google's owner is planning 85 billion USDs in capital expenditures on AI data center infrastructure.

Amazon's expenditure on servers and data centers to support AI could come up to to 118 billion USD in 2025 alone.

The big four so called hyperscalers Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are about to spend 400 billion USDs on capital expenditure related to artificial intelligence, AI in the coming year.

'Microsoft plans to unload about $100 billion on AI in the next fiscal year, CEO Satya Nadella said Wednesday. Meta plans to spend between $66 billion and $72 billion. Alphabet plans to spend $85bn, significantly higher than its previous estimation of $75bn. Amazon estimated that its 2025 expenditure would come to $100 billion as it plows money into Amazon Web Services, which analysts now expect to amount to $118bn'

Apple, on the other hand seems to the most viable investment alternative from the Magnificent 7 technology companies Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, NVIDIA and Tesla in valuation viewpoint, as Apple has largely avoided large AI CAPEX and generates far more in sales and profits from capital outlays than the four AI technology hyperscalers Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta.

 The four hyperscalers AI technology companies want to satisfy Wall Street equity research analysts' desire for higher artificial intelligence, AI spending with the predominant school of thought is that whichever company has the most powerful data crunching infrastructure will win the artificial intelligence, AI race and get to dominate the ever growing technology market.

All the above signs point that we are in an artificial intelligence, AI driven bubble, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates. True, we may be living in the fourth industrial revolution driven by AI, but the capital expenditures of the four hypercalers and technology companies altogether are unsustainable for sales and profit, which will ultimately drive the long-term results of the technology companies. The artificial intelligence, AI bubble could be 5-7 years away from popping, in Wolfteam Ltd.'s view.

 

 

 

Sunday, August 3, 2025

Private Equity And AI Infrastructure Investment

 


The leading alternative asset management firms with large private equity arms like Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, CVC have all invested heavily in data centers, energy firms and other artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, CVC do that by buying out via leveraged buyouts mid sized technology firms, giving out credit via private credit to technology firms and investing via their real estate asset management arms in data centers, energy firms and distribution centers which service online merchandise trade.

AI infrastructure takes an ever larger proportion of both the existing and new investments of Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, CVC and other leading private equity firms.

Their hopes are riding on the current fourth industrial revolution driven by artificial intelligence, AI. Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, CVC are investing heavily in artificial intelligence, AI because the AI driven companies, especially the magnificent 7 technology companies namely Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, NVIDIA and Tesla have outperformed the S&P 500 in the last ten years.

All this AI investment crowding seems much like the dot com boom and subsequent bust, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates. It is true that we are still not in a state of euphoria, which was the state of mind in 1999. However the artificial intelligence, AI investment crowding out by Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, CVC and the other leading private equity firms which together are managing more than 4 trillion USDs could slowly but steadily build up to market euphoria, which subsequently could lead to a stock market crash, which is defined as a fall in the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite of more than 35 %.

Yes, Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, CVC and the other alternative asset managers are investing in the future, because artificial intelligence, AI will change profoundly the way the world does business, enjoys leisure and builds new things. That said, excesses, signs of which are building could lead to a stock market crash, followed by economic recession bigger than the Great Recession in 2009-2013.

However, the net benefits of AI should be positive. 

Saturday, August 2, 2025

Figma IPO Valuation

 


Figma, the design systems and prototyping startup firm listed via Initial Public Offering, IPO this Thursday on the New York Stock Exchange. Figma's stock price increased by an exceptional 300 % in its first day of trading compared to the IPO price.

This is the highest first day increase of a company going public raising more than 1 billion USDs in 30 years, according to Bloomberg. This might just be a precursor of an IPO technology boom driven by artificial intelligence, AI akin or even bigger than the IPO boom and subsequent bust in 1997 - 2001 or the dot com boom and bust otherwise called.

According to Figma's -S-1 IPO filing the web design firm reported revenue of 749.01 million USD with a loss of (732) million in 2024 compared to revenue of 504.9 million USD and profit of 737.8 million driven mainly by other, non operating income items.

On a rolling basis Figma's revenue is 821 million USDs with 18 % non-GAAP operating margin.

Figma's current market capitalization is 56 billion USD. 

Figma's intrinsic valuation is 110 billion USDs according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s  projections and estimates.

Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections reflect the assumption that Figma's revenue will continue to grow by close to the last 46 % trailing year on year revenue growth and Figma will achieve substantial, around 17 % net profit margin.

All in all, Figma's giant price rise on the first Initial Public Offering, IPO day bodes great for both Figma's prospects and could signal a new era of fast, hectic technology mergers and acquisitions deals and IPO deal activity that could rival or even surpass the dot com boom and bust. All this driven by artificial intelligence, AI.