Bitcoin And The Debt Ceiling

 

If the US Federal government encounters difficulties in raising the debt ceiling, Bitcoin's price could climb above 35 000 USD.

Which would be an interesting development, since Bitcoin is considered a risky asset.

Every miscalculated move by the US government and the Federal Reserve on fiscal and monetary policy contributes to the debasement of the United States Dollar as a global reserve currency. The printed more than 10 trillion USD by leading global central banks does not help anchor USD's value, either.

Money creation, not very correct decisions and high inflation all contribute to upside pressure on Bitcoin's intrinsic value and ultimately price.

 

Disclaimer: The blog post above is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, derivatives or cryptocurrencies.

www.wolfteamedge.com

 

Spotify, Roku, Netflix Are Undervalued On Video Streaming

Spotify, Roku, Netflix are undervalued on video streaming demand, globally.

Spotify's market capitalization can go up multiple fold, as well as Roku's stock price.

Netflix's market capitalization could double.

Video is the global trend that is touching almost all spheres of daily life, including personal computers manufacturing, cloud computing, artificial intelligence.

 

Disclaimer: The blog post above is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, derivatives or cryptocurrencies.

www.wolfteamedge.com

Bitcoin. Silicon Valley Bank. First Republic Bank

Both Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank were financing Silicon Valley technology projects mainly.

Large part of their business was Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies related.

Even Silicon Valley Bank. First Republic Bank encountering great difficulties, Bitcoin's price is still rising, which is remarkable, really.

Bitcoin exhibits astounding resilience.

Generally, Silicon Valley technology projects are difficult to be financed by a bank, due to low or lack of revenue or profit. Wall Street banks, however, are also heavily exposed to large technology companies, which have smaller technology startups as subcontractors.

Bitcoin's agility is remarkable also in this sense.

Disclaimer: The blog post above is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, derivatives or cryptocurrencies.

www.wolfteamedge.com

First Republic Bank, Return Of A Crisis Flare

Yesterday, the share price of First Republic Bank fell by circa 48 %, after First Republic posted its 1 Quarter 2023 financial earnings report.

A sign of financial crisis for First Republic by all accounts, according to many analysts.

Actually, First Republic has 232.9 billion USD of Assets as of 31 March 2023, a bit more than Silicon Valley Bank, which went into administration recently and was essentially one of the largest bank failures in US history in terms of assets.

Wolfteam is of the opinion, that we are in a midst of a financial crisis that could turn out bigger than the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

Both regulators, Federal Reserve, bank employees, institutional and individual investors and last. but not least consumers must be vigilant, so the US and the world avoids a financial calamity, Wolfteam Ltd. is of the opinion.

Disclaimer: The above blogpost is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell securities or derivatives

www.wolfteamedge.com

GitLab Valuation As Of 24th April

 

GitLab Inc, arguably the most comprehensive DevSecOps, shared, git, code repository platform is the leader in team code writing.

Along with Microsoft's GitHub, which was acquired by Microsoft for 7.5 billion USD.

Currently, GitLab's market capitalization is circa 5.00 billion USD. 

And GitLab has clients like NVIDIA, Goldman Sachs, Siemens, UBS.

So either Microsoft's GitHub is overvalued or GitLab is undervalued.

Given the expected size of the Infrastructure as a Service, IaaS market of close to 400 billion USD in annual revenue, a significant part of the 700 billion USD forecasted cloud computing market in 10 years, according to various sources, the potential unlocked value of GitLab is enormous.

I estimate that currently GitLab's intrinsic value is 25 billion USD. And if GitLab's both tailor made and scalable, automated team code production cloud computing strategy is done right, GitLab could be worth more than 70 billion USD in 10 years.

Bitcoin As A Banking Disrupter

 

Although still in its infancy, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are taking not insignificant market share of the bread and butter of banking, money transfers that is.

Many industries have an anchor services, around which they sell up other, higher margin services and products.

Money transfers are the anchor service of banking. Accounts also. Once banks lock an individual or a firm with a deposit account and money transfers, they then sell up credits, wealth management, investment banking services.

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies firms are actually currently offering bank accounts in the way of Bitcoin wallets and money transfers via Bitcoin and other currencies.

All this is a challenge for establishment banks, of course.

The speed at which banking will be transformed will depend a lot on whether regulators, central banks, mainly the Federal Reserve try to interfere or control progress.

Individuals and firms require services that save them time, money and effort.

And Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies seem to be doing exactly that, be it with a great room for improvement.

Microsoft Valuation. On ChatGPT Projections

Microsoft is currently valued at 2.13 trillion USD.

 

Let's check if a possible future resounding success of ChatGPT is incorporated in Microsoft's current market capitalization.

Alphabet Inc, Google search engine's owner market capitalization is currently circa 1.4 trillion USD.

So 'back of the napkin' calculations show that if one assumes that Google search is responsible for 70 % or circa 1 trillion USD of Alphabet's market capitalization and, let's assume, ChatGPT takes away half of Google's advertisement revenue business, this would increase Microsoft's intrinsic value by 500 billion USD.

Actually in the past several months, Microsoft's market capitalization rose by approximately 25 % or circa 500 billion USD.

Apparently many people 'anticipated' ChatGPT's success.

I would actually argue that Microsoft's intrinsic value is 1.7 trillion USD, even assuming ChatGPT makes big inroads into search.

Alphabet Inc, Google's owner intrinsic worth, or 'fair value', according to Wolfteam  Ltd. estimates is 1 trillion USD.

Basically, technology stocks in the US are still overvalued by a significant margin, Wolfteam estimates.

www.wolfteamedge.com

Disclaimer: The above blog post is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell securities or derivatives.

Apple Strategy. A Possible New Hardware Product Could Enhance Apple's Value

Apple Inc. has been trying to diversify its hardware model into services.

Recently, Apple also is making efforts to diversify its production chain in fear of a potential China Taiwan encounter.

Sooner or later, however, Apple will have to come up with a new, breakthrough hardware product to justify its circa 2.63 trillion USD market capitalization.

Currently, Apple Inc's intrinsic value is 1.8 trillion USD, Wolfteam Ltd. estimates.

If Apple does not design a new innovative hardware product, Apple's intrinsic value could fall to 1.2 trillion USD, Wolfteam is of the opinion.

www.wolfteamedge.com

Disclaimer: The above blogpost is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell securities or derivatives.

Bitcoin As A Risk Indicator

Bitcoin exhibits a risk akin to small or micro capitalization technology stocks.

It the last 2 months however, Bitcoin' price has  risen, while small or micro capitalization technology stocks' prices have retreated.

A possible explanation is the relative undervaluation of Bitcoin, which just caught up with the rest of the technology market.

A deeper reason, perhaps regulatory changes, broad public acceptance of Bitcoin or fintech Bitcoin innovation could be causing the recent Bitcoin's rise.

Sooner, rather than later, the reason for Bitcoin's recent advance will crystalize.

www.wolfteamedge.com

Disclaimer: The above blog post is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell securities or derivatives.

Twitter, Part Of X Strategy And Valuation

 

Before being de listed from the NYSE stock exchange Twitter Inc was valued at circa 40 billion USD.

Then Elon Musk bought out Twitter Inc.

There are news that Twitter becomes part of X with Elon Musk's vision of turning X, from which the former Twitter in now part, into an everything application. That is, one can do banking, shopping, finance, games playing, chatting, socializing, etc. in one application only.

X, now owning Twitter could become a 1 trillion USD + market capitalization company, if the aforementioned grand vision is executed relatively quickly, diligently, flexibly, considerately and with great deal of discipline, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s estimate and projections.

 

Wolfteam Ltd., www.wolfteamedge.com

Disclaimer: The above blog post is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities or derivatives.

PayPal Is Undervalued As Of 14th April 2023

 

PayPal's intrinsic value, according to Wolfteam Ltd's estimates is 250 billion USD.

This compares to PayPal's current market capitalization of 86.33 billion USD.

PayPal was oversold in the partial bursting of the current technology bubble. Financial technology, fintech is slowly transforming finance for the better and PayPal is at the cutting edge of fintech.

PayPal has established high brand equity, 14 % -17 % net profit margin on average for the last five years and is still growing in an explosive growth industry like fintech.

Telegram ICO

 

Telegram, the secure messaging company founded and run by Pavel Durov completed in 2019 one of the biggest Initial Coin Offerings or ICO's in history.

Telegram's ICO is probably the most liquid ICO, as well.

Telegram's ICO raised 1 700 000 000 USD, which is a staggering sum of money.

Wall Street was in a way circumvented with Telegram's ICO.

However, Telegram's ICO was effectively cancelled by the US Securities and Exchange Commission which fined Telegram with 18,5 mln. USD and ordered Telegram to return 1.2 billion USD to investors.

The SEC in effect barring Telegram ICO, a flagship for ICOs and cryptocurrencies issuance put a huge break in the Initial Coin Offerings financing machine.

Technology startups seem to be reconsidering many times before doing an ICO, because they can be also sued by the SEC.

The above development is beneficial for Wall Street, but not for tech startups and for funding in general, because young companies, technology especially are stopped form having a new and exciting avenue for funding, that sits even before angel investing as a risk/reward ratio.

Wolfteam is of the opinion that the Securities and Exchange Commission and Silicon Valley will find a middle ground for ICO's in the future.

www.wolfteamedge.com

Disclaimer: The above blog post is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell securities or derivatives or cryptocurrencies.

Most Oil Stocks Are Undervalued

 

The WTI Oil price is at circa 82 USD.

That said, the stock prices of most oil companies like Exxon Mobil, Chevron, British Petrroleum, Marathon Oil Corporation, Petroleo Brasileiro, Devon Energy, Occidental Petroleum seem depressed both in the current environment and in historical comparison.

The oil majors mentioned above are circa 40 % undervalued, according to Wolfteam Ltd.

www.wolfteamedge.com

Disclaimer: The above blog post is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell securities or derivatives!

Cryptocurrencies As A Financing Vehicle. As Of 11th April 2023

In 2015 cryptocurrencies issued as tokens by many young technology companies were very popular as a financing vehicle.

Actually, crypto financing via Initial coin offerings or ICOs are the way Silicon Valley and the broader technology community tries to disrupt Walls Street investment banks and venture capital funds' hold on financing young, fledgling businesses. 

The large VC funds are not that many, while the main Wall Street IPO banks are not more than 10, in reality.

 

Cryptocurrencies are a way to democratize financing.

Wall Street, Silicon Valley venture capital fund can coexist and benefit to a great extent from Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

'Move fast, break things' can be rephrased as 'Move fast, break not much, but also mend and finally create'.

Wall Street and Sand Hill Road just have to be nimble, agile and lean.

Is Crypto Fintech To 100 %?

 

There are many areas of finance that brand themselves as fintech to attract more investors' money at higher valuations.

Basically, I think that most of fintech or financial technology comes down to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Andreessen Horowitz, arguably the top 3 leading venture capital fund is trying to become a broker so Andreessen Horowitz can invest in cryptocurrencies issued by technology startups like the one from Telegram created by Pavel Durov.

Too long have technology startups, venture capital funds and basically most of Silicon Valley depended on the benevolence of the Federal Reserve raising or cutting interest rate levels.

The United States of America is the pinnacle of free enterprise, capitalism, the current Rome and it must  fight for freedom.

Crypto has to be regulated, though, policed in one way or another, otherwise Ponzi schemes would proliferate.

Every woman/man deserves to dream the dream of becoming rich and ultimately changing the world for the better.

Long live free enterprise!

www.wolfteamedge.com

Disclaimer: The above blog post is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell securities, cryptocurrencies or financial derivatives.

AI Stocks

    

Currently, most AI or artificial intelligence stocks like NVIDIA, C3I, Microsoft, Alphabet, AMD, PLTR are overvalued, according to Wolfteam's estimates.

NVIDIA is overvalued by 60 %, Microsoft by 35 % and Alphabet by 30 %. AMD by 35 %. Palantir has governance issues, so I estimate Palantir is 40 % to 50 % overvalued. That said, Palantir Inc. is a global leader in scaling artificial intelligence.

Like most advanced but new technologies AI goes through boom and bust phases. AI's 2013 - 2022 boom got extremely overextended driven by cloud computing and Bitcoin mining. So now AI is going through a correction phase.

AI is the future. The current state of AI modelling can be more advanced. I doubt that AI will ever reach very close to human intelligence, but the AI models can be greatly improved, according to Wolfteam's estimates.

www.wolfteamedge.com

Disclaimer: The above blog post is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities.

Why The Stock Price Of META, Formerly Facebook Fell?

 

Because of regulations concerning third party cookies, information gathering, Wolfteam Inc, is of the opinion

Now every site one opens asks explicitly if the user wants cookies and the user can choose, select what types of cookies to allow.

The gathering of extensive information about its users was Meta Inc, formerly Facebook Inc's main selling point to its advertising companies. The aforementioned regulatory developments diminished that opportunity.

Currently, Meta Inc's market capitalization is circa 560 billion USD.

Wolfteam estimates Meta Inc's intrinsic value at 1.4 trillion USD, because of Meta sites' user engagement and the already huge treasure trove of information Meta, formerly Facebook has gathered about its sites' users.

 

www.wolfteamedge.com

Disclaimer: The above blog post should not be interpreted as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities or derivatives.

Mega Cap Tech Stocks Against Small And Medium Sized Tech Entreprises

Currently, the tech Top 5, namely Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are getting (almost) all the spoils from the ongoing technology boom. 

This can be partly explained by the fact that the institutional money or trillions of USD managed by pension funds, endowments, asset managers, hedge funds are looking for a relatively safe way to participate in the ongoing technology boom. 

The mega market capitalization top 5 are profitable and apart from Amazon, exhibit very high net profit margins. All of them, apart from Meta have a market capitalization of more than 1 trillion USD. And Apple and Microsoft distribute dividends even.

However, Wolfteam expects this tech mega cap trend sooner or later to slow down. There can be different triggers - the Federal Reserve raising rates, China - Taiwan tension, rising oil prices, general risk aversion.

The nimbler technology small and medium technology enterprises' stocks prices should be able to bounce off their recent lows much more dynamically and to even several times larger extent than a certain appreciation of the tech Top 5, namely Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta's equity prices.

In my opinion, also as sole proprietor of Wolfteam Ltd., small and medium technology companies' stock prices will outperform Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta's shares by a high margin in the next 7 years.

Bitcoin In The Cloud

Essentially, Bitcoin's mining is done predominantly in the cloud.

All major technology companies are doing cloud computing these days. Apple's App Store, Microsoft's Azure, Google Cloud, Amazon's Cloud, IBM Cloud,  Amazon Web Services, META are all striving for cloud computing first.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are essentially a major driving force behind cloud computing. Bitcoin mining and other crypto production are very computationally intensive processes, they require powerful computers, that is.

And both small and medium entreprises and people rely on AWS, Microsoft's Azure, Google Cloud to produce computation.

So Bitcoin, crypto and cloud computing are mutually beneficial, each other self enforcing trends.

 

www.wolfteamedge.com

Disclaimer: The above blog post is not an investment recommendation to buy or sell securities.

Apple Competitive Strategy

Currently, Apple is trying, by having lock in products, mainly iPhones, but also iPads to up sell its services business mainly via the App Store applications.

According to various sources, large part of the App Store revenue is from young people playing video games. This is actually great for Apple, since thus the company can forecast that the future generations will keep buying its hardware.

Apple, however, sooner or later will have to come up with a new hardware product. Services can provide an avenue for growth for up to 10 years.

For a large company to innovate, iterate is not very easy, but Apple sooner rather than later should take calculated risk, I think. 

That said, Apple is a 2.59 trillion USD market capitalization company, one of the largest value creation events in human history.

www.wolfteamedge.com

Disclaimer: The above blog post should is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities, neither a solicitation to buy or sell securities.

Uber Valuation 6th of April 2023

Uber Inc. the ride and delivery service is undervalued, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s estimates.

Uber's market capitalization is circa 63 billion USD currently.

Uber did 31.88 billion USD in revenue for 2022 with revenue growing by 82.62 % year on year compared to the calendar 2021.

Uber's lost money with high negative net profit margin in the calendar 2022, but in the last rolling five years Uber was occasionally profitable.

Wolfteam estimates that Uber's intrinsic worth is 80 billion USD.

At the current high revenue growth rate, Wolfteam thinks that it is only a matter of time before Uber becomes profitable, be it only slightly, which will immediately increase Uber's value.

www.wolfteamedge.com

Disclaimer: The above blogpost is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities.

Will Bitcoin Replace Gold Or Silver?

 

Most probably Bitcoin would not fully replace gold and silver as investment alternatives.

Bitcoin does function at the moment as a store of value, but due to the Bitcoin's volatility the flagship cryptocurrency is still considered risky.

What is more, gold is bought massively by central banks, which function as a price stabilizer for both gold and silver.

Gold as a material is virtually indestructible. The same is said for Bitcoin in its electronic form.

Gold, however, has a long history of investment worship.

Bitcoin will find it difficult to replace gold and silver as n investment opportunity. 

Disclaimer: The blog post is not to be construed as investment recommendation or a solicitation to buy or sell securities, cryptocurrencies.

Silver Valuation

Silver, the precious and partly industrial metal is undervalued, in my opinion.

I think Silver's financial futures and also spot price should be around 72 USD.

With the more than 10 trillion USD of created monetary reserves by central banks, that is printed out money, both gold and silver seem undervalued.

Silver is used in cars and electric car's batteries production, the latter being a briskly growing segment. Silver is used in many other branches of industrial production.

Both the precious component as a store of value and industrial component of silver's price point to the fact that silver is undervalued, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s estimates.

www.wolfteamedge.com

DoorDash Valuation 4th April 2023

 

DoorDash Inc. is currently valued at 25 billion USD on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE.

I think DoorDash's intrinsic worth is 44 billion USD.

Having different products delivered directly to where people live is convenient. Not all goods will move into this category, it must be said.

DoorDash's revenue for the fourth quarter of 2022 grew by more than 35 %, which shows that the coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic was not the main driver behind DoorDash's success. DoorDash is unprofitable, but if revenue continues growing so quickly and DoorDash manages to control costs better, in 3 years DoorDash should be able to start earning money.

All in all, DoorDash is undervalued, in my opinion. But not by much.

Bitcoin And Inflation

 

It would be highly intriguing how Bitcoin will take the current and prospective, according to my forecast, period of high inflation.

Personally, I think Bitcoin and most other cryptocurrencies could thrive in high inflation.

Some analysts, investors think Bitcoin can replace gold.

In my opinion, Bitcoin and gold are complementary.

The world needs new means of storing wealth apart from paper money, real estate, stocks, bonds and gold.

Especially in times of crises, upheaval and uncertainty.

I think Bitcoin could thrive in uncertainty.

 

3D Printing Investing

 

3D printing is yest to realize its full potential.

Like most new and promising technologies it goes through several boom and bust phases.

Now 3D printing is in a quiet period. However, I expect investment in 3D printing to increase again relatively soon.

3D printing could be view a teleportation! A long held dream of mankind.

3D Systems Corp is undervalued, I think.