Facebook Equity Research and Analysis!

Dear Reader,

Here I am going to make an attempt to value Facebook.

Facebook's stock fell precipitously on Q2 earnings announcement. Facebook's stock has been falling ever since driven by negative news about how Facebook was allegedly used to meddle in the 2016 US Presidential Elections. What is more, more negative news appeared related to privacy concerns in using Facebook and whether Facebook was selling off data about its users to third parties.
Facebook's stock is trading at around 128 USD today.

Facebook's market value fell from around 550 bln, USD to around 366 bln. USD today. This is a staggering loss of nearly 200 bln. USD.

So what is Facebook worth at the moment?

I believe Facebook is worth 30% more than its current stock market capitalization. I believe that the 30% higher value will be realized in the next 1-2 years. Basically, Facebook's stock has been oversold and too severely punished for recent company's missteps. So Facebook should be worth around 490 bln. USD.

In the last reported quarter Facebook's revenue grew by 32.91% and Facebook's net profit margin is a staggering 37.42%.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of the company where I am working currently!

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Kind regards,

Petar Posledovich

Snapchat, Snap Inc. Equity Research and Analysis!

Dear Reader,

I personally think Snap Inc., the mother company of the eponymous social network Snapchat is worth more than 50% than its current stock price of 5.92 USD and market capitalization of around 7.67 bln. USD.

Why? Because Snapchat has a loyal user base of young people who are yet to be fully monetized by Snap Inc. What is more Snapchat has proven its ability to innovate which is easily proven by the fact that Facebook Inc. is betting its future on clones of the Snapchat version of stories. In addition, I think there is place for one more general social network, aside from the dominant player Facebook and the more niche players like Twitter and LinkedIn.

And Snapchat is a perfect candidate to fill that void. Facebook boasts a market capitalization of more than 400 bln. USD even after its steep fall from above 550 bln. USD of market capitalization. And if Snapchat turns out to be a real social network competitor to Facebook, Snapchat could actually rise more than 5 times in the next 3 to 5 years.

Yes. Snapchat is loss making and will most likely loose more than 1 bln. USD in 2018. But Snap Inc. was trading at 27 USD before falling back to the current 5.92 USD, so there has been a valuation reset. I do think there is a much higher brand equity and innovation and revenue and earnings potential than the current Snap stock price and market capitalization suggests.

In short, I think in the next 1-2 years Snap Inc.'s stock could rise more than 50% and in the next 3 to 5 years Snap's stock price could more than triple.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of the company where I am working currently!

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Kind regards,

Petar Posledovich

Tesla Equity Research and Analysis!

Dear Reader,


Tesla Inc.'s stock recovered after the steep fall during the previous months. Tesla turned profitable in the third quarter of 2018 mainly due to sales booked for future periods. The current price of Tesla's stock is 357.96 USD.

What is the real, intrinsic worth of Tesla's stock today? In my opinion, Tesla stock is worth  200 USD currently.

Why? Because Tesla and the electric automobiles business is inherently uprofitable without government subsidies. As Elon Musk recently confessed, Tesla was on the brink of going bankrupt. An innovative company with huge aspirations and potentially disruptive and inovative product should never have come close to going out of business. The company is constantly burning money. The ferrous metals contained in electric vehicles are too expensive to produce a mass market car. Tesla pins its hopes on the model 3, but it is nearly impossible to produce the model 3 profitably at scale. Elon Musk does not seem to have the know-how to produce automobiles at scale.

Absent government subsidies, the business with cars running on electricity is simply not viable. If Tesla does not achieve a technological breakthrough which would help it produce electric automobiles profitably, the company could go bankrupt in the long run. Even with the profit in Q3 2018 Tesla would still most probably record a huge(more than 1 bln. USD) loss for 2018.

In short, I think Tesla's stock is worth around 200 USD currently.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of the company where I am working currently!

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Kind regards,

Petar Posledovich