Dear Reader,
I think oil woul hit 55 USD, but will trade in a range of 50 to 60 USD in much of the rest of 2016.
Global oil stocks have a bit further to rise.
There is a risk of large US stock market correction, bear market even.
DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P 500 could fall up to 20% from recent peaks.Gold is also prone to a large correction. Gold price could go back to 1050 USD in 2016. Gold stocks could sell off.
EUR/USD could go back to 1.05. USD/YEN could hit 100 in 2016.
I believe there is a distinct possibility of one federal funds rate hike by the Federal Reserve in 2016.
Parts of the tech bubble have already popped(GoPro, GroupOn, Fuel, Twitter, LinkedIn etc.), but a large scale economic disruption coming from tech stocks seems unlikely. Much of the market is nonpublic, so mainly Private Equity funds will suffer.
Many individuals hold nonpublic shares, so there is a small probability that a tech bubble bursting could hurt the average consumer.
All in all, I foresee mediocre returns from the US stock market. DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq should rise no more than 5-10% in 2016, with 5% increase more likely.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
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Disclaimer:
Disclaimer: The blog posts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".
The blog is stocks analysis and valuation, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, Artificial Intelligence, AI, deep-learning focused. Independent, unbiased AI insights.
Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blog posts on this blog and posts on social networks.
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blog post and posts on social networks!
The blog is property of Wolfteam Ltd. www.wolfteamedge.com
Respectfully yours,
Petar Posledovich
Wednesday, May 25, 2016
US Stocks!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Thursday, May 12, 2016
Oil at 70 USD, Global Stocks, Bonds!
Dear Reader,
Oil, both WTI and brent, could easily go to 70 USD.
Global oil majors should outperfrom.
As far as US and Eurozone stocks are concerned, things are tricky. I believe the correlation between oil and the US stock market is about to break down, diminish.
The Federal reserve could surprise markets and hike in June. Honestly, I am 50:50 if there would be one or two hikes of the Federal Funds Rate in 2016.
Gold is prone to a large fall, I think. Gold could go to 1050 USD and global gold producers could shed more than 30% of their value.
EUR/USD should again go close to 1.05. USD/Yen could touch 100.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Oil, both WTI and brent, could easily go to 70 USD.
Global oil majors should outperfrom.
As far as US and Eurozone stocks are concerned, things are tricky. I believe the correlation between oil and the US stock market is about to break down, diminish.
The Federal reserve could surprise markets and hike in June. Honestly, I am 50:50 if there would be one or two hikes of the Federal Funds Rate in 2016.
Gold is prone to a large fall, I think. Gold could go to 1050 USD and global gold producers could shed more than 30% of their value.
EUR/USD should again go close to 1.05. USD/Yen could touch 100.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
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