Bubbles and Eurozone Sovereign Bonds, US Tech Stocks!

Dear Reader,

I still expect US stocks to sell off 20% from current levels in 2015. There is a small tech bubble in the US that warrants a 30% correction of the Nasdaq. I know this time the tech companies have revenues, but the valuations seem stretched to say the least. Some of the nonpublc tech firms are valued at ridiculuous levels.

The eurozone sovereign bonds is a HUGE bubble. One of the biggest in history. It should pop sooner or later. I predict the 10 year German government bonds yield to reach 0.7% in 2015.

I expect the EUR/USD to reach 0.90 in 2015, while gold should fall towards 1050 in 2015. There is a risk that gold can crash losing more than 30% from the current levels in the next 2-3 years.



Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Predictions, Results and more Forecasts!

Dear Reader,

European stocks seem to have started the 10% correction I predicted. The German DAX Index is down circa 5.5% from its peak.

European 'periphery' government bonds seem to have started the sell off I predicted. Spanish and Italian government bonds sold off hard during the past several weeks. I think the sell off will continue and even accelerate.

I expect the German 10 year government bond(bund) yield to reach 0.70% in 2015.

Basically, I am of the opinion that eurozone government bonds at the moment are one of the greatest bubbles in history, if not the greatest...

I expect US stocks to enter bear market in 2015, 20% or more fall from their peaks measured by the main indices.US tech stocks, both public and nonpublic, are in a (small) bubble. Biotech stocks as well. Tech and biotech stocks should sell off more than 30% from their peaks in 2015.



Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Chinese stocks, US stocks, EU government bonds!

Dear Reader,

I think Chinese stocks will form a bubble in 2015. US tech stocks seem overvalued. There are certainly  some similarities to the dot com mania in 2000.

EUR/USD to target 0.90 in 2015. Gold to target 1050 in 2015.
The biggest dislocation seems to be in the eurozone government bonds market. The values of the southern eurozone periphery yields are simply outrageous. I do not believe the macroeconomic environment justifies such valuations. Something is bound to give. The ECB provides support, so the mania could go on for a while, but the music will stop at some point. The hangover from the party should be significant.
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Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Bubbles, Economic and Financial Forecasts!

Dear Reader,

Non-farm payrolls in March in the USA were weak. I expect a very weak GDP reading for the first quarter of 2015. Overall, I forecast US GDP to grow no more than 2.5% year on year in 2015. Actually, I think the growth year on year of US GDP for 2015 will be closer to 2.0% than to 2.5%.

That said, I do not expect the Fed to get swayed. I think the Federal Reserve will raise the Federal Funds Rate in September 2015, although there is a decent chance the rate hike will happen even in June. I expect the US 10 year treasury yield to reach 2.7% somewhere in 2015.

US tech and biotech stocks are in a bubble. But the bubble is not as big as the dot com bubble. I expect the Nasdaq to loose little more than 30% of its value. The S&P 500 should fall 20% from its current levels.

I expect a 10%, at least, correction of eurozone stock markets from the current levels. I know the ECB is printing money, but the eurozone economy is just too weak to justify the current valuations alone.
I expect the eurozone GDP to grow 1.6% year on year in 2015.

Eurozone bonds are in a significant bubble. I forecast the German 10 year bund yield to touch 0.7% in 2015.

I expect the EUR/USD to reach 0.90 in 2015 and gold should touch 1050 in 2015.



Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!