Dear Reader,
US stocks(DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq) keep making new record highs. Personally, I think there will be a large correction(10-15%), but "you have to dance, until the music stops", so for now, I think US stocks are going up.
As John Maynard Keynes adequately put it: "the market can remain longer irrational, than you can remain solvent".
Eurozone bonds is another madness. Negative yields in Spain, Italy, come on... The yield on the 10 year German bunds is at -0.10%. But "you have to dance, until the music stops", so I do not expect a large jump in yields in the eurozone soon, as long as the European Central Bank (ECB) does not announce any tapering of the bond purchases.
Russian stocks, Gazprom in particular, are trading at ridiculuous levels. I believe oil could go easily to 60 USD in 2016. Russian stocks are grossly undervalued.
Gold is an interesting case. If the Federal reserve hikes even once in 2016, I think it could fall 10%-15%. Until the hike, however, which will most likely be in December 2016, gold should continue to go up.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
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Disclaimer:
Disclaimer: The blog posts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".
The blog is stocks analysis and valuation, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, Artificial Intelligence, AI, deep-learning focused. Independent, unbiased AI insights.
Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blog posts on this blog and posts on social networks.
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blog post and posts on social networks!
The blog is property of Wolfteam Ltd. www.wolfteamedge.com
Respectfully yours,
Petar Posledovich
Wednesday, August 10, 2016
Stocks, Bonds, Foreign Exchange, Oil and Gold!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Wednesday, July 20, 2016
US Technology Stocks, Gold, Bonds!
Dear Reader,
The markets shrugged off the Brexit effect.
I personally do not think big banks will move significant personnel numbers out of London. In the short-term, British real estate could fall 10-20%, but in the long run the UK could become a safe heaven, especially if it lowers its tax rate to less than 15%.
US stocks measured by the main indices DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq should rise 5% to 7% this year. US technology stocks are set to benefit selectively. Microsoft, Twitter could benefit. Twitter could become a M&A acquisition target. Facebook seems overvalued. Facebook could stay at these lofty valuations for a long time, but it needs to grow a lot, develop new markets to justify that valuation.
Gold is interesting. In 1-2 years I think the price of gold could fall to 1000 USD, but in the mean time it could rise to 1400 USD.
I predict oil would finish the year above 61 USD.
German 10 year bunds yield is to stay between -0.15% to 0.30% for the next few months. The banking crisis in Italy seems contained. Europe seems to apply bail-ins selectively, as the US did...
In the next 5-7 years emerging markets(BRICS) remain a growth story, provided there is no hard landing in China. Russia, especially, looks undervalued. The rise of the price of oil and the recovery of Russia's economy should benefit the country's stock market.
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Petar Posledovich
The markets shrugged off the Brexit effect.
I personally do not think big banks will move significant personnel numbers out of London. In the short-term, British real estate could fall 10-20%, but in the long run the UK could become a safe heaven, especially if it lowers its tax rate to less than 15%.
US stocks measured by the main indices DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq should rise 5% to 7% this year. US technology stocks are set to benefit selectively. Microsoft, Twitter could benefit. Twitter could become a M&A acquisition target. Facebook seems overvalued. Facebook could stay at these lofty valuations for a long time, but it needs to grow a lot, develop new markets to justify that valuation.
Gold is interesting. In 1-2 years I think the price of gold could fall to 1000 USD, but in the mean time it could rise to 1400 USD.
I predict oil would finish the year above 61 USD.
German 10 year bunds yield is to stay between -0.15% to 0.30% for the next few months. The banking crisis in Italy seems contained. Europe seems to apply bail-ins selectively, as the US did...
In the next 5-7 years emerging markets(BRICS) remain a growth story, provided there is no hard landing in China. Russia, especially, looks undervalued. The rise of the price of oil and the recovery of Russia's economy should benefit the country's stock market.
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Friday, June 24, 2016
Brexit?!
Dear Reader,
Great Britain decided to exit the European Union. What does this mean for financial assets?
Stocks should suffer only a minor setback. I do not envisage a correction of more than 10% in the US and more than 20% in the eurozone and Asian stock markets.
The UK FTSE should also fall by less than 20%.
Gold should bounce up by 10-15%. In the long run, however, gold is overvalued, I think, and it should correct to 1050 USD in the next 1-2 years.
German 10 year government bonds(bunds) should reverse the fall of yields from the Brexit results day and the bunds yield should again become positive and target 0.30%.
The eurozone periphery(Italy, Spain, Ireland, Portugal, Greece) government bonds's yields should rise by a lot - 1% from current levels.
Basically, the Brexit dip in US stock markets should prove a good opportunity to buy. US stocks do not seem to me to be overvalued.
The eurozone stock markets should have difficulty to recover after the Brexit. The weight of the European Union diminishes after the Brexit.
The Brexit, actually, could prove beneficial for the UK in the long run. The UK could become a safe heaven and the inflow of money could support the British pound and Britsh stocks and bonds in the long run 2-3 years. This is provided that, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland do not decide to leave Great Britain.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
Great Britain decided to exit the European Union. What does this mean for financial assets?
Stocks should suffer only a minor setback. I do not envisage a correction of more than 10% in the US and more than 20% in the eurozone and Asian stock markets.
The UK FTSE should also fall by less than 20%.
Gold should bounce up by 10-15%. In the long run, however, gold is overvalued, I think, and it should correct to 1050 USD in the next 1-2 years.
German 10 year government bonds(bunds) should reverse the fall of yields from the Brexit results day and the bunds yield should again become positive and target 0.30%.
The eurozone periphery(Italy, Spain, Ireland, Portugal, Greece) government bonds's yields should rise by a lot - 1% from current levels.
Basically, the Brexit dip in US stock markets should prove a good opportunity to buy. US stocks do not seem to me to be overvalued.
The eurozone stock markets should have difficulty to recover after the Brexit. The weight of the European Union diminishes after the Brexit.
The Brexit, actually, could prove beneficial for the UK in the long run. The UK could become a safe heaven and the inflow of money could support the British pound and Britsh stocks and bonds in the long run 2-3 years. This is provided that, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland do not decide to leave Great Britain.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Wednesday, May 25, 2016
US Stocks!
Dear Reader,
I think oil woul hit 55 USD, but will trade in a range of 50 to 60 USD in much of the rest of 2016.
Global oil stocks have a bit further to rise.
There is a risk of large US stock market correction, bear market even.
DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P 500 could fall up to 20% from recent peaks.Gold is also prone to a large correction. Gold price could go back to 1050 USD in 2016. Gold stocks could sell off.
EUR/USD could go back to 1.05. USD/YEN could hit 100 in 2016.
I believe there is a distinct possibility of one federal funds rate hike by the Federal Reserve in 2016.
Parts of the tech bubble have already popped(GoPro, GroupOn, Fuel, Twitter, LinkedIn etc.), but a large scale economic disruption coming from tech stocks seems unlikely. Much of the market is nonpublic, so mainly Private Equity funds will suffer.
Many individuals hold nonpublic shares, so there is a small probability that a tech bubble bursting could hurt the average consumer.
All in all, I foresee mediocre returns from the US stock market. DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq should rise no more than 5-10% in 2016, with 5% increase more likely.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
I think oil woul hit 55 USD, but will trade in a range of 50 to 60 USD in much of the rest of 2016.
Global oil stocks have a bit further to rise.
There is a risk of large US stock market correction, bear market even.
DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P 500 could fall up to 20% from recent peaks.Gold is also prone to a large correction. Gold price could go back to 1050 USD in 2016. Gold stocks could sell off.
EUR/USD could go back to 1.05. USD/YEN could hit 100 in 2016.
I believe there is a distinct possibility of one federal funds rate hike by the Federal Reserve in 2016.
Parts of the tech bubble have already popped(GoPro, GroupOn, Fuel, Twitter, LinkedIn etc.), but a large scale economic disruption coming from tech stocks seems unlikely. Much of the market is nonpublic, so mainly Private Equity funds will suffer.
Many individuals hold nonpublic shares, so there is a small probability that a tech bubble bursting could hurt the average consumer.
All in all, I foresee mediocre returns from the US stock market. DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq should rise no more than 5-10% in 2016, with 5% increase more likely.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Thursday, May 12, 2016
Oil at 70 USD, Global Stocks, Bonds!
Dear Reader,
Oil, both WTI and brent, could easily go to 70 USD.
Global oil majors should outperfrom.
As far as US and Eurozone stocks are concerned, things are tricky. I believe the correlation between oil and the US stock market is about to break down, diminish.
The Federal reserve could surprise markets and hike in June. Honestly, I am 50:50 if there would be one or two hikes of the Federal Funds Rate in 2016.
Gold is prone to a large fall, I think. Gold could go to 1050 USD and global gold producers could shed more than 30% of their value.
EUR/USD should again go close to 1.05. USD/Yen could touch 100.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Oil, both WTI and brent, could easily go to 70 USD.
Global oil majors should outperfrom.
As far as US and Eurozone stocks are concerned, things are tricky. I believe the correlation between oil and the US stock market is about to break down, diminish.
The Federal reserve could surprise markets and hike in June. Honestly, I am 50:50 if there would be one or two hikes of the Federal Funds Rate in 2016.
Gold is prone to a large fall, I think. Gold could go to 1050 USD and global gold producers could shed more than 30% of their value.
EUR/USD should again go close to 1.05. USD/Yen could touch 100.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Thursday, April 7, 2016
Oil at 50 USD, Fixed Income, Stocks?
Dear Reader,
WTI Crude oil and Brent oil jumped yesterday. Oil could easily reach 50 USD in 2016.
Global oil majors stocks should benefit from that. Fracking companies get even at circa 50 USD, so their stocks should benefit less.
Global stocks and fixed income returns are set for mediocre numbers in the coming years. Fixed income is overvalued and stocks do not have drivers that will make stock returns explode.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
WTI Crude oil and Brent oil jumped yesterday. Oil could easily reach 50 USD in 2016.
Global oil majors stocks should benefit from that. Fracking companies get even at circa 50 USD, so their stocks should benefit less.
Global stocks and fixed income returns are set for mediocre numbers in the coming years. Fixed income is overvalued and stocks do not have drivers that will make stock returns explode.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Wednesday, April 6, 2016
Oil and Bonds!
Dear Reader,
Oil seems to be focusing attention these days. I still expect WTI oil to touch 50 USD in 2016.
I do not subscribe to the belief that the oil age is "over". Basically, to produce oil is very cheap, people constantly uncover new finds and technology will keep driving oil production costs down. Clean energy will have its place, but the world economy is still growing.
Global oil majors should benefit from the rise of oil. Mid to large cap fracking companies seem a good way to play oil in the short term.
Government bonds all over the world seem overpriced. Low inflation will come back and the sell-off in US, EU and Japan bonds could be significant.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Oil seems to be focusing attention these days. I still expect WTI oil to touch 50 USD in 2016.
I do not subscribe to the belief that the oil age is "over". Basically, to produce oil is very cheap, people constantly uncover new finds and technology will keep driving oil production costs down. Clean energy will have its place, but the world economy is still growing.
Global oil majors should benefit from the rise of oil. Mid to large cap fracking companies seem a good way to play oil in the short term.
Government bonds all over the world seem overpriced. Low inflation will come back and the sell-off in US, EU and Japan bonds could be significant.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Tuesday, April 5, 2016
Eurozone Government Bonds and US Stocks!
Dear Reader,
I consider the yield on 10 year German government bonds of 0.10% unrealistic. Personally, I expect the yield will rise toward 0.70% in 2016. The ECB is buying, but the levels are simply unreal.
US stocks seem fragile. I expect there will be another pullback of 10% in DJIA, S&P 500 and 20% in Nasdaq in 2016.
The Federal Reserve seems dovish, but the prices of commodities seem fragile. WTI Oil could easiliy fall below 30 USD, before it goes up to 50 USD in 2016.
What is more, I think the Federal Reserve will hike the Federal Funds Rate twice by 0.25% in 2016.
US tech stocks are showing signs of weakness, especially nonpublic tech companies, evidenced by 0 (zero) tech IPOs in the first quarter. I think there is a serious danger, that this weakness could spread to large cap US tech stocks.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
I consider the yield on 10 year German government bonds of 0.10% unrealistic. Personally, I expect the yield will rise toward 0.70% in 2016. The ECB is buying, but the levels are simply unreal.
US stocks seem fragile. I expect there will be another pullback of 10% in DJIA, S&P 500 and 20% in Nasdaq in 2016.
The Federal Reserve seems dovish, but the prices of commodities seem fragile. WTI Oil could easiliy fall below 30 USD, before it goes up to 50 USD in 2016.
What is more, I think the Federal Reserve will hike the Federal Funds Rate twice by 0.25% in 2016.
US tech stocks are showing signs of weakness, especially nonpublic tech companies, evidenced by 0 (zero) tech IPOs in the first quarter. I think there is a serious danger, that this weakness could spread to large cap US tech stocks.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Monday, April 4, 2016
China!
Dear Reader,
My view on China is that we are in for an average GDP growth rate of 4.0% in the next ten years.
I believe the probability for a hard landing is 60%. Hard landing could be caused by either State Owned Enterprises(SOEs) corporate loan defaults or real estate crash. The stock market is not going to post spectacular gains.
The restructuring of the Chinese economy towards more consumption takes longer that expected.
Personally, I believe China should get rid of only 'dirty' industries to decrease pollution. Manufacturing, especially with cheap labour, is one of China's competitive advantages and I think the Chinese government will be reluctant to give it up completely.
The Chinese yuan could lose value in the future.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
My view on China is that we are in for an average GDP growth rate of 4.0% in the next ten years.
I believe the probability for a hard landing is 60%. Hard landing could be caused by either State Owned Enterprises(SOEs) corporate loan defaults or real estate crash. The stock market is not going to post spectacular gains.
The restructuring of the Chinese economy towards more consumption takes longer that expected.
Personally, I believe China should get rid of only 'dirty' industries to decrease pollution. Manufacturing, especially with cheap labour, is one of China's competitive advantages and I think the Chinese government will be reluctant to give it up completely.
The Chinese yuan could lose value in the future.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Friday, April 1, 2016
Brazil, Oil and Gold!
Dear Reader,
Brazil stocks, for one reason or another, are in a bull market. The market seems to be speculating that a new government will ease monetary policy and introduce business friendly measures. The Brazil central bank reference Selic rate target at 14.25% is quite high, so there is a lot of scope for easing.
I like Petroleiro Brasileiro. I think WTI oil could touch 50 USD in 2016, so leveraged plays on oil like mid to large cap fracking companies seem a good bet. Marathon Oil Corporation(MRO) is a good example.
Gold should fall back to 1050 USD in 2016.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Brazil stocks, for one reason or another, are in a bull market. The market seems to be speculating that a new government will ease monetary policy and introduce business friendly measures. The Brazil central bank reference Selic rate target at 14.25% is quite high, so there is a lot of scope for easing.
I like Petroleiro Brasileiro. I think WTI oil could touch 50 USD in 2016, so leveraged plays on oil like mid to large cap fracking companies seem a good bet. Marathon Oil Corporation(MRO) is a good example.
Gold should fall back to 1050 USD in 2016.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Thursday, March 31, 2016
Upside for stocks!
Dear Reader,
The Federal reserve erased two Federal funds rate hikes from the dotplot of the FOMC members. Basically, the Federal reserve intends to raise rates two times by 0.25% in 2016 instead of 4 times as envisaged before the march meeting.
This and other factors support some upside potential for stocks globally. US tech stocks and emerging markets(Brazil, Russia, India and China) stocks should ouperform, if oil does not collapse.
Basically, I think oil could touch 50USD in 2016, where it should face various headwinds.
Petrobras, Nvidia, Microsoft, global oil majors look good.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
The Federal reserve erased two Federal funds rate hikes from the dotplot of the FOMC members. Basically, the Federal reserve intends to raise rates two times by 0.25% in 2016 instead of 4 times as envisaged before the march meeting.
This and other factors support some upside potential for stocks globally. US tech stocks and emerging markets(Brazil, Russia, India and China) stocks should ouperform, if oil does not collapse.
Basically, I think oil could touch 50USD in 2016, where it should face various headwinds.
Petrobras, Nvidia, Microsoft, global oil majors look good.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Thursday, March 17, 2016
Temporary Upside for Gold, Commodities and Equities!
Dear Reader,
The Federal Reserve lowered its forecast for Federal Funds Rate hikes in 2016 to two from four.
This changes some of my assumptions.
I believe global equities have some upside potential in the near term. Commodites should also benefit from the change of stance from the Fed. Oil is on route to reaching my foreacst of 50-60 USD in 2016.
I believe what is happening to gold is a bear market rally, but with all that money printing from central banks all over the world gold could surpass 1350 USD a troy ounce in 2016.
I believe commodity producers stand to benefit the most from this bear market rally in commodities which has some more time to go.
I still beleive EUR/USD could touch parity in 2016, but it will take longer than expected. Emerging market oil stocks should ouperform. Gold miners should outperform in the short term.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
The Federal Reserve lowered its forecast for Federal Funds Rate hikes in 2016 to two from four.
This changes some of my assumptions.
I believe global equities have some upside potential in the near term. Commodites should also benefit from the change of stance from the Fed. Oil is on route to reaching my foreacst of 50-60 USD in 2016.
I believe what is happening to gold is a bear market rally, but with all that money printing from central banks all over the world gold could surpass 1350 USD a troy ounce in 2016.
I believe commodity producers stand to benefit the most from this bear market rally in commodities which has some more time to go.
I still beleive EUR/USD could touch parity in 2016, but it will take longer than expected. Emerging market oil stocks should ouperform. Gold miners should outperform in the short term.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Wednesday, March 2, 2016
Large US and EU Bank Stocks Undervalued, US Tech Stocks Overvalued in the short-term, Gold to touch 1000 USD in 2016!
Dear Reader,
Lately, stock markets around the world have rallied. I still think we are in for a 20% fall from recent peaks in the major indices on Wall Street: DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. In the mean time, opportunistic rallies could be used for trading gains.
Contrary to popular views, I still believe the Federal Reserve will hike the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25% in March 2016. The US economy is going strong compared with the global economy. The unemployment rate in the US is 4.9%, which for me is quite low. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index is 1.7% which is quite close the 2.00% target of the Federal Reserve.
I believe the Federal Reserve will want to preempt a jump in inflation and will make precautionary hikes, instead of abtruptly tightening later.
I expect the Federal Reserve to hike the Federal Funds Rate at least two times in 2016.
I expect 10 year US treasury yield to touch 2.7% in 2016. I expect the 10 year German Bund yield to reach 1.0% in 2016.
Large cap US banks as JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley etc. should outperform. Large cap European Banks as Deutsche, Barclays, Santander, HSBC, Unicredit, Credit Suisse, UBS etc. seem grossly undervalued.
I expect the bubble in (small and nonpublic) technology stocks to burst. For many tech companies like Groupon, Zynga, GoPro, Fuel, Twitter and LinkedIn this has already happened and there have been massive revaluations. Many small and nonpublic tech companies have experienced down rounds and revaluations. I expect this trend to broaden. From the bust however, new global IT leaders will be born.
I do think Twitter and LinkedIn will remain large cap tech companies and retain leading roles in the online advertising market. Facebook seems overvalued, but the correction should not be by more than 40%. Twitter and LinkedIn seem undervalued with midterm holding horizon(3-5 years).
Gold is to fall to 1000 in 2016. Oil to go back to 50-60 USD in 2016. USDJPY to fall to 110. I expect parity EUR/USD 1.00 in 2016.
For me base metals and oil have found a bottom, provided the Chinese economy does not fall of a cliff.
In the long term(5-7 years) Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa(BRICS) stocks seem undervalued. In the short-term, I expect more volatility. If China experiences hard landing all major emerging markets stocks will be dragged lower.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Lately, stock markets around the world have rallied. I still think we are in for a 20% fall from recent peaks in the major indices on Wall Street: DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. In the mean time, opportunistic rallies could be used for trading gains.
Contrary to popular views, I still believe the Federal Reserve will hike the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25% in March 2016. The US economy is going strong compared with the global economy. The unemployment rate in the US is 4.9%, which for me is quite low. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index is 1.7% which is quite close the 2.00% target of the Federal Reserve.
I believe the Federal Reserve will want to preempt a jump in inflation and will make precautionary hikes, instead of abtruptly tightening later.
I expect the Federal Reserve to hike the Federal Funds Rate at least two times in 2016.
I expect 10 year US treasury yield to touch 2.7% in 2016. I expect the 10 year German Bund yield to reach 1.0% in 2016.
Large cap US banks as JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley etc. should outperform. Large cap European Banks as Deutsche, Barclays, Santander, HSBC, Unicredit, Credit Suisse, UBS etc. seem grossly undervalued.
I expect the bubble in (small and nonpublic) technology stocks to burst. For many tech companies like Groupon, Zynga, GoPro, Fuel, Twitter and LinkedIn this has already happened and there have been massive revaluations. Many small and nonpublic tech companies have experienced down rounds and revaluations. I expect this trend to broaden. From the bust however, new global IT leaders will be born.
I do think Twitter and LinkedIn will remain large cap tech companies and retain leading roles in the online advertising market. Facebook seems overvalued, but the correction should not be by more than 40%. Twitter and LinkedIn seem undervalued with midterm holding horizon(3-5 years).
Gold is to fall to 1000 in 2016. Oil to go back to 50-60 USD in 2016. USDJPY to fall to 110. I expect parity EUR/USD 1.00 in 2016.
For me base metals and oil have found a bottom, provided the Chinese economy does not fall of a cliff.
In the long term(5-7 years) Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa(BRICS) stocks seem undervalued. In the short-term, I expect more volatility. If China experiences hard landing all major emerging markets stocks will be dragged lower.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Tuesday, February 23, 2016
Future Bear Market is a Great Opportunity for Mainly Value Stocks!
Dear Reader,
I still expect US stock markets, measured by the main indices DJIA, S&P500, Nasdaq Composite to go into a bear market defined by a fall of more than 20% from the recent peaks. It is true Nasdaq almost touched this level, but I expect DJIA, S&P500 to fall by 20% as well.
That would be a great buying opportunity. I expect large banks(Citi, JPMorgan, Bank of America, MorganStanley, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo) to outperform after the fall. Large IT companies like Google, Apple, Microsoft to outperform after the coming fall.
Facebook seems overvalued. Twitter and LinkedIn after the recent fall seem to be undervalued. If the 20% market drop I forecast does not materialise, Twitter and LinkedIn could prove great investments.
I expect the Federal Reserve to hike the Federal Funds Rate in March 2016, contrary to market expectations. I expect the US 10 year treasury yield to reach 2.70% by the end of 2016.
The German 10 year Bund is grossly overpriced. I forecast the 10 year German bund yield to touch 1.00% in 2016.
The European Central Bank will disappoint markets again in March. If central banks could do everything, why haven't we thought about this sooner?! :-)
Oil is to recover to 50 USD in 2016. Russian stocks are undervalued. The issue seems to be structural, because other large emerging markets like Brazil and China trade at much higher multiples.
I expect this to partly reverse. Russia is still a powerful country and economy.
Gold is to fall to 1000 USD in 2016 again. The USD/YEN to touch 100 in 2016, EUR/USD to touch 1.00 in 2016.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
I still expect US stock markets, measured by the main indices DJIA, S&P500, Nasdaq Composite to go into a bear market defined by a fall of more than 20% from the recent peaks. It is true Nasdaq almost touched this level, but I expect DJIA, S&P500 to fall by 20% as well.
That would be a great buying opportunity. I expect large banks(Citi, JPMorgan, Bank of America, MorganStanley, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo) to outperform after the fall. Large IT companies like Google, Apple, Microsoft to outperform after the coming fall.
Facebook seems overvalued. Twitter and LinkedIn after the recent fall seem to be undervalued. If the 20% market drop I forecast does not materialise, Twitter and LinkedIn could prove great investments.
I expect the Federal Reserve to hike the Federal Funds Rate in March 2016, contrary to market expectations. I expect the US 10 year treasury yield to reach 2.70% by the end of 2016.
The German 10 year Bund is grossly overpriced. I forecast the 10 year German bund yield to touch 1.00% in 2016.
The European Central Bank will disappoint markets again in March. If central banks could do everything, why haven't we thought about this sooner?! :-)
Oil is to recover to 50 USD in 2016. Russian stocks are undervalued. The issue seems to be structural, because other large emerging markets like Brazil and China trade at much higher multiples.
I expect this to partly reverse. Russia is still a powerful country and economy.
Gold is to fall to 1000 USD in 2016 again. The USD/YEN to touch 100 in 2016, EUR/USD to touch 1.00 in 2016.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Tuesday, February 2, 2016
Bear Market in Stocks in 2016!
Dear Reader,
Global stocks went down since the beginning of 2016.
I forecast that US stocks will go into a bear market in 2016 as measured by a larger than 20% fall from the peak in the main indices DJIA, S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite. Then, there will be a buying opportunity especially in technology value stocks like Microsoft, Intel, Qualcomm and value banking stocks like Citigroup, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
EUR/USD to reach parity(1.00) in 2016. USD/YEN to fall to 110 despite the Federal Reserve tightening mode.
Oil to bottom out at 30 USD and reach 60 USD by the end of 2016. Gold to fall below 900 USD in 2016.
I expect the Federal Reserve to hike the Federal Funds Rate at least 3 times in 2016. I expect the 10 year US treasury yield to reach 2.70% in 2016. I forecast the yield on the German 10 year bund to reach 1.00% in 2016.
The European Central Bank will again disappoint investors in its march meeting by only lowering the deposit facility rate to -0.40.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Monday, December 7, 2015
Stocks, Bonds, Foreign Exchange, Oil and Gold!
Dear Reader,
I stick with my forecast that the US major stock indices(S&P 500, DJIA, Nasdaq) will post 5-8% gains for 2015. Nasdaq is at this range, while DJIA and S&P 500 are close.
I forecast the Federal Reserve will hike the Federal Funds Rate at the December 2015 meeting. I stick with my forecast the 10 year US trasury yield will touch 2.7% in 2015. I stick with my forecast the yield on the 10 year German government bond(bund) will rise to 1.0% in 2015.
My foreacst that the major European stock market indices(CAC, DAX, FTSE) could rise 10-15% is close to coming true.
I revise my forecast about oil. WTI Oil should reach 60 USD in 2016.
EUR/USD should reach parity 1.0 in 2016. USD/JPY should fall to 110 in 2016.
Gold to fall to 800 USD in 2016-2017 where it will find a bottom.
My forecast that some tech stocks are in a bubble already came true. Some of these bubbles(FUEL, GroupOn, FitBit, GoPro etc.) have already popped.
The broader market, though, should remain relatively unaffected.
I revise my forecast about large cap tech stocks-> they remain fairly valued. Google, Apple, Electronic Arts, Twitter, LinkedIn are fairly valued. Facebook is overvalued. Microsoft still has some upside potential on Windows 10.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Wednesday, November 4, 2015
Markets. Many Forecasts and Views!
Dear Reader,
My forecast that the major US stock markets indices will finish 2015 up 5-8% is about to come true. It certainly did not look this way two months ago after the 15% correction.
I keep my forecast that DJIA, S&P500 and Nasdaq will finish the year up 5-8%.
I forecast the Federal Reserve will raise the Federal funds rate by 0.25% in December 2015. The US 10 year treasury yield should reach 2.7% in 2015, ... yes, there is still time ...
Large cap US technology stocks and large cap US banks will benefit the most from the coming rally in US equities.
Apple, Google, Microsoft, Electronic Arts, Twitter, LinkedIn are undervalued. Facebook is overvalued.
JPMorgan, WellsFargo, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are undervalued.
The German 10 year government bond(bund) yield will reach 1.00% in 2015, yes there is still time ...
The Italian, Spanish, Portuguese and Greek bonds will endure some sell off, but nothing drastic.
I believe the European Central bank will not announce any easing measures at its meeting in December 2015.
I beleive Russia equities are undervalued on oil. China equities are overvalued. Brazil equities are slightly undervalued.
Oil WTI to reach 65 USD in 2015. The forecast seems excessive, so I am following the market closely with the inclination to put off the time point of oil reaching 65 USD.
Global oil majors like ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Chevron, BP Shell, Total, Gazprom, Rosneft are undervalued.
Gold to fall to 800 USD in 2-3 years. Gold mining majors are still overvalued.
My forecast that EUR/USD will reach 1.00 is within sight, so I stick with it. USDYEN to fall to 110 in 2015.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
My forecast that the major US stock markets indices will finish 2015 up 5-8% is about to come true. It certainly did not look this way two months ago after the 15% correction.
I keep my forecast that DJIA, S&P500 and Nasdaq will finish the year up 5-8%.
I forecast the Federal Reserve will raise the Federal funds rate by 0.25% in December 2015. The US 10 year treasury yield should reach 2.7% in 2015, ... yes, there is still time ...
Large cap US technology stocks and large cap US banks will benefit the most from the coming rally in US equities.
Apple, Google, Microsoft, Electronic Arts, Twitter, LinkedIn are undervalued. Facebook is overvalued.
JPMorgan, WellsFargo, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are undervalued.
The German 10 year government bond(bund) yield will reach 1.00% in 2015, yes there is still time ...
The Italian, Spanish, Portuguese and Greek bonds will endure some sell off, but nothing drastic.
I believe the European Central bank will not announce any easing measures at its meeting in December 2015.
I beleive Russia equities are undervalued on oil. China equities are overvalued. Brazil equities are slightly undervalued.
Oil WTI to reach 65 USD in 2015. The forecast seems excessive, so I am following the market closely with the inclination to put off the time point of oil reaching 65 USD.
Global oil majors like ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Chevron, BP Shell, Total, Gazprom, Rosneft are undervalued.
Gold to fall to 800 USD in 2-3 years. Gold mining majors are still overvalued.
My forecast that EUR/USD will reach 1.00 is within sight, so I stick with it. USDYEN to fall to 110 in 2015.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Friday, October 2, 2015
Markets. Change of Blog Strategy!
Dear Reader,
I am changing the strategy of by blog a bit. I am going to post once a month, but the post will be longer and will contain more information.
That said, I still believe major US indices will post 5-8% gains in 2015. That said it becomes obvious that buying the dip at these levels should prove handsomely profitable.
I believe Europe's major stock indices(FTSE, DAX, CAC, MIB) will post 5-8% gains in 2015. Here, again, buying the dip should prove profitable.
I believe the German 10 year bund yield will reach 1.00% in 2015. The 10 year US treasury yield should touch 2.7%. I believe the Federal reserve will raise the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25% in December 2015.
I believe the following tech stocks are undervalued: Microsoft, Google, Apple, Twitter, LinkedIn, FitBit, Gopro. I believe Facebook is fully valued.
I believe WTI oil will rise to 65 USD in 2015. So buying the global oil majors like Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Exxon Mobil, BP, Shell, Total should prove profitable at these levels.
I believe gold will fall to 800 USD in 2-3 years, so gold mining stocks are still overvalued.
Other industrial metals are close to a bottom.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
I am changing the strategy of by blog a bit. I am going to post once a month, but the post will be longer and will contain more information.
That said, I still believe major US indices will post 5-8% gains in 2015. That said it becomes obvious that buying the dip at these levels should prove handsomely profitable.
I believe Europe's major stock indices(FTSE, DAX, CAC, MIB) will post 5-8% gains in 2015. Here, again, buying the dip should prove profitable.
I believe the German 10 year bund yield will reach 1.00% in 2015. The 10 year US treasury yield should touch 2.7%. I believe the Federal reserve will raise the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25% in December 2015.
I believe the following tech stocks are undervalued: Microsoft, Google, Apple, Twitter, LinkedIn, FitBit, Gopro. I believe Facebook is fully valued.
I believe WTI oil will rise to 65 USD in 2015. So buying the global oil majors like Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Exxon Mobil, BP, Shell, Total should prove profitable at these levels.
I believe gold will fall to 800 USD in 2-3 years, so gold mining stocks are still overvalued.
Other industrial metals are close to a bottom.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Sunday, September 20, 2015
Buying the Current Dip in Equities?
Dear Reader,
I revise my forecast on Fed policy. I forecast a hike in December 2015.
I still forecast US major stock indices to post 5-8% gains in 2015.
I expect EU major stock indices(DAX, CAC, FTSE) to post 5-8% in 2015.
That said, buying the current dip should prove handsomely profitable.
I expect 10 year US treasury yield to touch 2.70% in 2015. I expect 10 year German bunds yield to touch 1.0% in 2015.
I expect oil WTI to recover to 65 USD in 2015. Gold to fall to 800 USD in 2, 3 years.
Twitter, LinkedIn are undervalued. Facebook, Apple are fully valued. Microsoft is undervalued on Windows 10.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
I revise my forecast on Fed policy. I forecast a hike in December 2015.
I still forecast US major stock indices to post 5-8% gains in 2015.
I expect EU major stock indices(DAX, CAC, FTSE) to post 5-8% in 2015.
That said, buying the current dip should prove handsomely profitable.
I expect 10 year US treasury yield to touch 2.70% in 2015. I expect 10 year German bunds yield to touch 1.0% in 2015.
I expect oil WTI to recover to 65 USD in 2015. Gold to fall to 800 USD in 2, 3 years.
Twitter, LinkedIn are undervalued. Facebook, Apple are fully valued. Microsoft is undervalued on Windows 10.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Friday, September 11, 2015
Buying the Current Western Major Stock Markets Dip and FED Hike Next Week?
Dear Reader,
I still expect major US stock indices(DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq) to post 5-8% gains in 2015. Basically, buying the current dip should prove handsomely profitable.
I still expect the Federal Reserve to hike the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25% next week AND in December 2015. I forecast the US 10 year treasury yield will reach 2.7% in 2015.
I forecast the major European stock markets to post mild 5-8% gains in 2015, so buying the dip here will again be profitable. 10 year German government bonds yield should touch 1.00% in 2015. I forecast the major eurozone 'periphery' government bonds (Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Greece) to sell off in the year's end. Spanish and Italian 10 year government bonds yield should reach 3.00% in 2015.
I forecast oil WTI to recover to 65 USD in 2015. Gold will fall to 800 in 2-3 years.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
I still expect major US stock indices(DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq) to post 5-8% gains in 2015. Basically, buying the current dip should prove handsomely profitable.
I still expect the Federal Reserve to hike the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25% next week AND in December 2015. I forecast the US 10 year treasury yield will reach 2.7% in 2015.
I forecast the major European stock markets to post mild 5-8% gains in 2015, so buying the dip here will again be profitable. 10 year German government bonds yield should touch 1.00% in 2015. I forecast the major eurozone 'periphery' government bonds (Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Greece) to sell off in the year's end. Spanish and Italian 10 year government bonds yield should reach 3.00% in 2015.
I forecast oil WTI to recover to 65 USD in 2015. Gold will fall to 800 in 2-3 years.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Friday, September 4, 2015
Predictions Results and More Forecasts!
Dear Reader,
I still believe that US major stock indices will finish the year 2015 up 5-8%. So buying the current dip should prove (quite) profitable.
Accuracy of Predictions: As evidenced by previous posts, I predicted that US tech stocks will correct 30%. This came true for stocks listed in the last 3-4 years, while old tech majors like Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple corrected circa 20% along with Facebook. I predicted also that there will not be a crash. I update my prediction that most of the tech stocks will recover their losses.
European stock indices, though, will not fully recover their highs. I expect DAX, CAC, FTSE to post circa 5% gains in 2015.
I forecast the Federal Reserve will raise rates in September and December or twice this year. I forecast the German 10 year bund yield will touch 1.00% in 2015 and US 10 year treasury yield will reach 2.7% in 2015.
EUR/USD should fall to 0.90, while USD/JPY should touch 110.
I believe oil WTI will recover to 60 USD in 2015, so global oil majors look like a good investment.
Gold should fall to 800 USD in 2-3 years.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Friday, August 28, 2015
How long will the sell off in stocks continue?
Dear Reader,
I expect the correction in US stocks to continue some bit longer. I stick to my forecast that major US stock indices will post 5-8% gains in 2015, so I expect buying the current dip to be profitable.
For the major European stock markets(FTSE, DAX, CAC), however, the recovery will not be that strong. They should be mildly profitable for the year.
I expect 10 year German bunds yield to touch 1.00% in 2015. I forecast US 10 year treasuries yield will touch 2.70% in 2015. The Federal Reserve will hike rates in 2015.
Chinese stocks still seem overvalued. Other major emerging markets(Russia, Brazil, India), though, look close to a bottom.
I expect oil WTI to recover to 60 USD in 2015. Gold to fall to 800 USD in 2-3 years.
I expect EUR/USD to touch 0.90 in 2015, while USD/YEN to fall to 110 in 2015.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
I expect the correction in US stocks to continue some bit longer. I stick to my forecast that major US stock indices will post 5-8% gains in 2015, so I expect buying the current dip to be profitable.
For the major European stock markets(FTSE, DAX, CAC), however, the recovery will not be that strong. They should be mildly profitable for the year.
I expect 10 year German bunds yield to touch 1.00% in 2015. I forecast US 10 year treasuries yield will touch 2.70% in 2015. The Federal Reserve will hike rates in 2015.
Chinese stocks still seem overvalued. Other major emerging markets(Russia, Brazil, India), though, look close to a bottom.
I expect oil WTI to recover to 60 USD in 2015. Gold to fall to 800 USD in 2-3 years.
I expect EUR/USD to touch 0.90 in 2015, while USD/YEN to fall to 110 in 2015.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Friday, August 21, 2015
Buying the dip in stocks, selling the rally in bonds?
Dear Reader,
I still believe the main US stock market indices(DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq) will post 5-8% gains in 2015.
I believe now buying the dip is a good strategy. Social networks Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter are undervalued. GoPro and FitBit offer large value, have high upside potential.
I still think US 10 year treasuries yield will touch 2.70% in 2015. I still believe EUR/USD will touch 0.90 in 2015. The 10 year German bunds yield will stay below 1.5% in 2015, but will touch 1.00% in 2015.
I now think the DAX, FTSE, CAC will post 10% in 2015, which is a revision of my 15% 2015 gain forecast made some time ago.
I believe USD/JPY will touch 110 in 2015.
I forecast gold will fall towards 800 USD in 2-3 years.
Oil WTI will rise towards 60USD.
OIL majors Exxon Mobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, BP, Shell, Total offer significant value.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of Interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies and commodities mentioned in the blogpost or posts on social networks.
I still believe the main US stock market indices(DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq) will post 5-8% gains in 2015.
I believe now buying the dip is a good strategy. Social networks Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter are undervalued. GoPro and FitBit offer large value, have high upside potential.
I still think US 10 year treasuries yield will touch 2.70% in 2015. I still believe EUR/USD will touch 0.90 in 2015. The 10 year German bunds yield will stay below 1.5% in 2015, but will touch 1.00% in 2015.
I now think the DAX, FTSE, CAC will post 10% in 2015, which is a revision of my 15% 2015 gain forecast made some time ago.
I believe USD/JPY will touch 110 in 2015.
I forecast gold will fall towards 800 USD in 2-3 years.
Oil WTI will rise towards 60USD.
OIL majors Exxon Mobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, BP, Shell, Total offer significant value.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of Interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies and commodities mentioned in the blogpost or posts on social networks.
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Friday, August 14, 2015
Stocks, Bonds, Commodities and Foreign Exchange!
Dear Reader,
I still believe the main US stock market indices(DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq) will post 5-8% gains in 2015.
I believe Facebook, LinekdIn, Twitter and Google are undervalued. Oil majors like Exxon Mobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Total offer good value. Apple is fully valued.
US bank majors Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are undervalued.
I believe the yield on US 10 year treasuries will touch 2.7% in 2015. The Federal Reserve will hike the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25% in September AND December 2015.
I believe the German 10 year bunds(government bonds) yield will stay below 1.5% in 2015. The eurozone 'periphery' government bonds(Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Greece) will sell off towards year end. I expect the yield on 10 year government bonds of Italy and Spain to touch 3.0% in 2015.
I expect oil(WTI) to recover and touch 60 USD by the end of 2015.
I forecast gold will fall towards 800 USD in 2-3 years.
I forecast EUR/USD will head towards 0.90 in 2015. USD/JPY will touch 110 in 2015.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
I still believe the main US stock market indices(DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq) will post 5-8% gains in 2015.
I believe Facebook, LinekdIn, Twitter and Google are undervalued. Oil majors like Exxon Mobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Total offer good value. Apple is fully valued.
US bank majors Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are undervalued.
I believe the yield on US 10 year treasuries will touch 2.7% in 2015. The Federal Reserve will hike the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25% in September AND December 2015.
I believe the German 10 year bunds(government bonds) yield will stay below 1.5% in 2015. The eurozone 'periphery' government bonds(Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Greece) will sell off towards year end. I expect the yield on 10 year government bonds of Italy and Spain to touch 3.0% in 2015.
I expect oil(WTI) to recover and touch 60 USD by the end of 2015.
I forecast gold will fall towards 800 USD in 2-3 years.
I forecast EUR/USD will head towards 0.90 in 2015. USD/JPY will touch 110 in 2015.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Monday, August 10, 2015
Bonds, Stocks, Commodities, Foreign Exchange!
Dear Reader,
I still expect major US stock market indices to post 5-8% gains in 2015. US 10 year treasury yield should touch 2.7% in 2015. The Fed will hike in September AND December.
I forecast the German 10 year bund yield will stay below 1.5%. Gold should fall to 800 USD in 2-3 years.
Oil looks undervalued at the moment. I think it will get to 60 USD by year end.
Oil majors stocks Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch, BP look undervalued.
US bank majors JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs look undervalued.
I forecast EUR/USD will touch 0.90 in 2015, while USD/YEN could fall to 110.
Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
I still expect major US stock market indices to post 5-8% gains in 2015. US 10 year treasury yield should touch 2.7% in 2015. The Fed will hike in September AND December.
I forecast the German 10 year bund yield will stay below 1.5%. Gold should fall to 800 USD in 2-3 years.
Oil looks undervalued at the moment. I think it will get to 60 USD by year end.
Oil majors stocks Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch, BP look undervalued.
US bank majors JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs look undervalued.
I forecast EUR/USD will touch 0.90 in 2015, while USD/YEN could fall to 110.
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Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
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