Will The Coming IPO Boom Be A Precursor To An AI Bust? SpaceA, OpenAI, Anthropic

OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX along with spades of other technology companies and companies from other sectors are about to stage an IPO in 2026, according to various media reports. SpaceX already did its IPO.

OpenAI raised 122 billion USDl currently at a post money 852 billion USDs valuation, Anthropic raised 65 billion USD at 965 billion USDs post money valuation and SpaceX staged an IPO on Thursday last week and is currently valued at 2.43 trillion USDs, 15 % above its IPO price.

OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX's AI business are currently heavy loss making. SpaceX' AI business recorded a net loss of (6.36) billion USDs.

If OpenAI, Anthropic which loose billions of USDs per year complete a successful IPO and other companies from other sectors that are also loss making complete also IPOs successfully, this could signal that we are in an artificial intelligence, AI bubble, which inflates assets across the global economy.

At the peak of the internet Dot Com bubble and subsequent bust, companies, which either had no revenue or were heavy loss making were staging IPOs and that signaled the peak of the internet Dot Com bubble.

Now, many analysts and investors say companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX and even the magnificent 7 Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla and NVIDIA have revenue and that could substantiate their high for the magnificent 7 valuations and exorbitant for OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX valuations. If the AI boom does not turn into a bust.

The coming sky high IPO valuations of  OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX's IPO already priced and with market capitalization of 2.43 trillion USDs along with spades of other technology companies could well signal the top of the current artificial intelligence, AI boom which could be followed by a bust, defined by the Nasdaq Composite falling more than 62 % from its recent stock market high.

 

SpaceX Valuation. On The Eve Of The IPO

SpaceX is now valued by public markets at 2.1 trillion USD.

There are three possible scenarios for Tesla's value in the future:

1) Current scenario based on the three most recent yearly financial reports of SpaceX: 

SpaceX is worth 210 billion USDs. This is only true if Tesla spins off or sells out of its loss making AI business and is left only with its Connectivity business which produced net income of 4.423 billion USD in the calendar 2025. SpaceX's space business had a net loss of (657) million USDs in 2025.

SpaceX's reported a loss of (4.276) billion USDs for the 1st Quarter of 2026 and a loss of (4.937) billion USD for the calendar 2026. 

2) Mild profitability scenario. 

SpaceX's AI business lives only partially to the extremely positive scenarios of some Wall Street equity research investors and analysts and SpaceX's AI business starts making 5 billion USDs in net profit on 18 billion USDs yearly revenue in 2030. SpaceX's overall revenue and profit reach 42 billion and 10 billion USDs in 2030 and grow by 5 % a year from there on for the next 10 years.

In such a scenario, SpaceX could be worth 1.1 trillion USDs

3) Huge success 'current' scenario.

SpaceX lives up to the some of the most optimistic current Wall Street equity research investors and analysts' estimates. 

For example SpaceX's AI business is a huge success and reaches 87 billion USDs in revenue and 15 billion USDs in net profit in the calendar 2040. SpaceX's connectivity business clocks in 40 billion USDs of revenue and 8 billion USDs of profit in 2040 and SpaceX's space business also starts making around 15 billion USDs in revenue and 3 billion USDs in profit by 2040.

In such a case SpaceX's value could reach 2.8 trillion USDs. 

  

Tesla Valuation. June 2026. On The Eve Of SpaceX IPO

 

Tesla's intrinsic value is 120 billion USD. This is the value of the electric vehicle technology, itself, which is pending on Tesla finding a way to produce electric vehicles profitably, without subsidies. Electric vehicles like Tesla's use large quantity of ferrous metals, which make producing electric cars unprofitable.

Since Tesla is getting somewhere around 7 500 USD subsidy per Tesla electric vehicle, Tesla is inherently unprofitable. In reality. An unprofitable business is worth 0.

So, in reality there are three scenarios for Tesla's worth:

1)  Tesla finds a path to minor profitability after subsidies via a technological breakthrough. In this case Tesla is worth 120 billion USD.

2) Tesla does not become profitable after subsidies. In this case Tesla is worth 0, zero.

3) Tesla develops a new profitable business like robotic taxis, which could make money for the company. The size of such a business could be worth between 100 billion USDs to 1 trillion USDs, depending on Tesla's market share.

Partners Group Limits Withdrawals From A Private Equity Fund. Implications For Private Equity And Private Credit

 

Partners Group, the Swiss based alternative assets manager capped withdrawals from one of its private equity funds.

The recent wave of withdrawals limits affected mainly private credit funds. Cliffwater, BlackRock, Blue Owl, Ares, etc. all set limits on withdrawals from private credit funds they manage in the months since the beginning of 2026.

Partners Group's shares slid 16 % on the day the company announced it limits withdrawals from its private equity fund and this triggered a wave of selling of leading listed private equity giants like Blackstone, KKR, EQT, CVC, Bridgepoint Group, TPG, Ares etc., because they are fears the recent private credit rout could affect the private equity funds.

As long as the AI boom does not turn into bust defined by the Nasdaq Composite falling more than 62 %, the private equity giants Blackstone, KKR, Carlyle, Apollo EQT, CVC, Bridgepoint Group, TPG, Ares, Blue Owl etc. and mid sized and small private equity managers and the private equity industry should turn out OK and it would be able to weather the current troubles.

NVIDIA Valuation Scenarios

 

NVIDIA's market capitalization is currently 5.2 trillion USDs

There are several scenarios possible:

 1) The AI boom which NVIDIA leads really is the fourth industrial revolution and changes the world more than even the internet boom. The Nasdaq Composite could double from current levels in such a case, In such a case NVIDIA's market capitalization could reach 9.3 trillion USDs

2)  The AI rally lives up to half the current hype. The Nasdaq Composite falls by 30 % from current levels. NVIDIA's market capitalization could fall to 2.1 trillion USDs in such a case

3) The AI boom turns into a bust defined by the Nasdaq Composite falling more than 65 % from current levels. NVIDIA's market capitalization could fall to 810 billion USDs in such a case