Tesla Derives Much Of Its Value From Implicit And Explicit Subsidies. Valuation Upon That Premise

Tesla car buyers and Tesla itself gets indirect subsidies in the form of emission credits.

Since 2008 Tesla got around 14.3 billion USDs of emission credits disbursed by the US government from money gotten from the other combustion engine automobile producers active in the USA.

Without these 14.3 billion USDs Tesla would have most probably been unprofitable.

In addition Tesla got an estimated 3.4 billion USDs from an $7,500 tax credit for EV buyers which ended in 2019. This perk essentially allowed Tesla to sell American-made electrical vehicle at a higher price than manufacturing without the subsidy would have allowed. 

Elon Musk himself admitted that Tesla was on the verge of bankruptcy in 2019.

In short, Tesla's intrinsic worth is 120 billion USD and this is the value of the electric vehicle technology itself. Because Tesla would be unprofitable, loss making without the implicit and explicit government subsidies.

The issue is the electric vehicle engine requires large quantities of ferrous metals, namely lithium, cobalt, nickel copper and other expensive ferrous metals. This makes producing electric vehicles currently unprofitable, Basically, if a car company produces electric vehicles without implicit and explicit government subsidies the automobile manufacturer looses money. 

Essentially, Tesla and electric vehicle manufacturers essentially need to achieve a technological, engineering breakthrough to produce electric cars profitably.

If Tesla does not achieve a technological breakthrough, its value could go to 0, zero. It could become insolvent.

A lot of the value of Tesla, according to Wall Street investors and equity research analysts and Silicon valley investors and technologists comes from the promise of robotized taxi manufacturing and humanoid robots production by Tesla.

This is basically an option on the future. A claim on a future technological breakthrough to produce robotized taxis and humanoid robots. Self-driving cars have been a goal of the car manufacturing industry since the 1950's when the head of Daimler, the producer of the Mercedez brand said that self-driving cars will be a reality in 30 years.

Yes. If Tesla achieves a technological breakthrough and starts producing electrical vehicles and starts producing robotized taxis and humanoid robots, than it might substantiate its current market capitalization.

Can Private Credit Recover From The Current Crisis?

 

If artificial intelligence, AI does not prove to be a bubble and does not burst, defined by the Nasdaq Composite falling 62 % or more, private credit asset managers will recover their balance and most of their positions.

If AI proves to be the largest bubble in history and bursts, the constant capital raising and investing and buying up high interest credit and companies along and selling them off in opportune times, defining the private credit asset managers' business model will prove untenable and they can face solvency issues. 

Is SpaceX Actually A Space Natural Resources Mining Investment Play?

 

SpaceX is touted by Wall Street investors, equity research analysts and Silicon Valley investors and technologists as satellites in space, internet beamed by satellites, space rockets launch infrastructure and artificial intelligence, AI chat bot investment opportunity.

With the future growth forecast by Wall Street equity research analysts to come roughly 70 % from AI chat bots and 30 % from satellites launching in space and the associated internet.

Actually, SpaceX could be a space mining for base metals, precious metals and rare earths and other resources investment operation. There are many proofs and observations that asteroids from space contain huge, possibly hundreds of trillions of USDs or even more potential for base metals, precious metals and rare earths and other resources extraction. Other planets according to various studies and observations most certainly huge, possibly hundreds of trillions of deposits of base metals, precious metals and rare earths and other resource.

So SpaceX could actually be a way to put mining infrastructure in space on asteroids, the Moon, Mars, Jupiter mainly and other planets which could be used to mine the possibly hundreds of trillions of USDs or even more potential for base metals, precious metals and rare earths contained there in.

SpaceX now provides the rockets which could potentially get people on asteroids, the Moon, Mars, Jupiter mainly and other planets, also the satellites which could provide the infrastructure there, also the internet.

So, basically SpaceX could be an investment to build a base on asteroids, the Moon, Mars, Jupiter mainly and other planets to mine the base metals, precious metals and rare earths and other resources deposits which some estimate to be hundreds of trillions of USDs or more.

The Grok AI could also prove useful chat bot to mine the base metals, precious metals and rare earths and other resources deposits in Space.

However, first SpaceX has to achieve overall profitability to finance the mining of the base metals, precious metals and rare earths and other resources deposits in space on the Moon, Mars, Jupiter mainly and other planets. Investor money only could not prove enough. And investor money could suffer a 'sudden stop' if SpaceX does not show a clear path for profitability.

Currently, SpaceX's intrinsic value is about 210 billion USDs and only if the Grok chat bot AI investments losses are significantly reduced in the very near term. That compares with SpaceX's current 1.91 trillion exorbitant market capitalization. 

To mine the possibly hundreds of trillions of deposits on asteroids, the Moon, Mars, Jupiter mainly and other planets other companies are needed to provide the ecosystem of space base equipment, rockets, infrastructure, internet, mining equipment, food, drinks, etc. 

Private Credit Hold Off Large Part Of Redemptions

 

According to various sources various private credit asset managers have held off roughly 40 % of the recent redemption requests.

Big private credit asset managers like Blackstone, BlackRock, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle TPG, Ares, Blue Owl, Parners Group, CVC, EQT are trying to weather the recent storm engulfing the sector after the bankruptcies of Tricolor, First Brands, Market Financial Solutions caused a large wave of redemption requests since late 2025

Private credit asset managers answered by gating the investments outflow.

As long as the AI boom does not turn out to be a bubble defined by the Nasdaq Composite falling by more than 45 % from its peak, private credit will be able to absorb the current difficult times.

 

What If AI Turns Out To Be A Bubble And Bursts?

 

If AI turns out to be a bubble and busts there are two possible scenarios:

1) Mild realistic scenario:

The Nasdaq Composite falls 46 % from its peak.

1) Apple's market capitalization falls to 1.7 trillion USDs from 4.53 trillion USDs currently.  

2) Microsoft's market capitalization falls to 1.4 trillion USDs from 2.90 trillion USDs currently

3) Alphabet's market capitalization falls to 2.0 trillion USDs from 4.36 trillion USDs currently.

4) Amazon's market capitalization falls to 1.5 trillion USDs from 2.61 trillion USDs currently

5)  Meta's market capitalization falls 800 billion USDs from 1.48 trillion USDs

6) Tesla's market capitalization falls to 0.5 trillion USDs from 1.23 trillion USDs currently

7) NVIDIA's market capitalization falls to 2.3 trillion USDs from 4.71 trillion USDs currently 

 

1) Pessimistic scenario scenario:

The Nasdaq Composite falls 62 % or more from its peak.

1) Apple's market capitalization falls to 800 billion USDs from 4.53 trillion USDs currently.  

2) Microsoft's market capitalization falls to 600 billion USDs from 2.90 trillion USDs currently

3) Alphabet's market capitalization falls to 700 billion USDs from 4.36 trillion USDs currently.

4) Amazon's market capitalization falls to 600 billion USDs from 2.61 trillion USDs currently

5) Meta's market capitalization falls 400 billion USDs from 1.48 trillion USDs

6) Tesla's market capitalization falls to 120 billion USDs from 1.23 trillion USDs currently

7) NVIDIA's market capitalization falls to 420 billion USDs from 4.71 trillion USDs currently 

 

Actually in a worst case scenario the Nasdaq Composite could fall 82 % or more as in the Dot Com boom and bust.

In such a worst case the Magnificent 7 stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla and NVIDIA's market capitalization could fall 80 % or more from their current levels.