What Would It Take For A Large Correction In Private Equity, Private Credit Stocks?

 

The stocks of Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC etc., the largest private equity, private credit, real estate and infrastructure asset managers have declined around 30 % from their recent all time highs.

What would it take for their stock market capitalization to fall even further?

A bursting of a possible artificial intelligence, AI bubble could cause and even more dramatic fall in the stocks of  Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC etc., the largest private equity, private credit, real estate and infrastructure asset manages.

Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, EQT, Partners Group, etc. and most other large and medium size private private equity and private credit companies have invested large part of their assets raised in the last 7 years in artificial intelligence, AI technology large and mostly mid-sized companies private equity buyouts, have given private credit loans to fund those buyouts and lent directly to artificial intelligence, AI technology large and mostly mid-sized companies, have financed via their real estate assets artificial intelligence, AI data centers builds and have financed via their infrastructure assets under management energy companies providing energy for artificial intelligence, AI companies.

In short, if an artificial intelligence, AI bubble bursts the Nasdaq Composite could fall 62 % or more from its recent all time high and the stock market capitalization of  Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, EQT, Partners Group etc. could fall more than 50 % from their recent all time highs, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates

If the technology of artificial intelligence, AI recovers from its current slump and goes on to increase individuals, corporations and governments' productivity dramatically and turns out really to be the fourth industrial revolution and changes positively our society, the stocks of Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, EQT, Partners Group could recover in a dramatic fashion form their current decline and rise much above their recent all time highs, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

Is This The Bursting Of A Private Equity, Private Credit Bubble?

 

No.

One of the leading private credit and private equity firms in the world Blue Owl holding redemptions in a 600 million USD retail focused fund, the First Brands and TriColor bankruptcies earlier are a temporary setback for private equity, private credit, real estate and infrastructure, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

The stocks of the globally leading private equity, private credit, real estate and infrastructure investment firms Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle Ares, Blue Owl, CVC sank by between 5 % and 10 % on Thursday and Friday after Blue Owl announced it is holding redemptions in one of its funds, effectively freezing investors out of their money for a short lock-up period, gating that is. However, a faster alternative redemption schedule was offered by Blue Owl whereby investors get 30 % of their money quicker.

The main driver of Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle Ares, Blue Owl, CVC etc. private equity, private credit, real estate and infrastructure asset managers' stocks are their hundreds of billions of USDs investment of their funds raised in the last 7 years in artificial intelligence, AI. 

And artificial intelligence, AI's boom will most likely continue in the next 3-4 years, despite the current slowdown, correction and fret about artificial, AI coding automation on Software As A Service firms, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

In short, the stocks of Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle Ares, Blue Owl, CVC could fall circa 40 - 45 % from their recent peaks, but they will most likely recover along the AI technology giants stocks of Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft. In the mid-ter 3 to 5 years.

 

Blue Owl Holds Redemptions From One Of Its Funds. Valuations Scenario Analysis Of Private Equity, Private Credit Companies

 

Blue Owl, the leading global private equity, private credit, real estate alternative asset manager announced it is holding redemptions from one of its retail funds Blue Owl Capital Corp. II (OBDC II), a private, retail-facing debt fund, and instead will return capital through periodic distributions funded by loan repayments, asset sales or other strategic transactions.

The stocks of the leading global private equity, private credit, real estate, infrastructure asset managers Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, CVC fell most more than 5 % yesterday along with 6 % fall of Blue Owl's stock.

Some investors and analysts say this holding of redemptions of one of Blue Owl's funds might be a precursor to a financial crisis much like the holding of redemptions of two structured credit funds of Bear Stearns and BNP Paribas was for the great financial crises and Great Recession of 2008/2009.

There are three possible scenarios:

1) Quick recovery scenario. The stocks of  Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC are down circa 30 % from their recent peaks in the last rolling year. The stocks of  Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC could fall more, down more than 45 % from their recent peaks.

However, the stocks of  Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC would stage a recovery if things brighten up and it becomes clear that the Blue Owl, Tricolor and First Brands recently were one off events and the stocks of  Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC would rise substantially from their lows and surpass their peaks by high margin on the artificial intelligence, AI boom and the money that Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC have invested in AI companies.

Probability of this scenario is 40 %

2) Muddling through. It becomes clear that  Blue Owl, Tricolor and First Brands are serious cases, Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC loose tens of billions of USDs of their assets under management on these and other private credit bankruptcies. After some time the stocks of Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC will recover some lost ground but remain below their peaks in 2-3 years from now. Here a positive could be if the AI boom continues and Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC make some of the lost money on AI technology companies investments.

The probability of this scenario is 40 % 

 3) Full blown credit, financial and economic crisis.

The  Blue Owl, Tricolor and First Brands events are followed by many other bankruptcies. The credit delinquencies spread from Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC etc. private equity, private credit, real estate asset managers to the banks JPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, UBS, Deutsche Bank, Barclays etc. banks which have financed the private equity giants. Banks stop lending, people cut down on consumption, firms decrease drastically investments and the financial crisis becomes economic and  global and deep. Much as in 2008/2009. Large banks failures are possible.

The probability of this scenario is 20 %.

The most likely scenario is slow recovery for Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC etc. stocks and business, but recovery nonetheless, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates. 

Partners Group Holding AG. The Private Equity Firm Valuation

 

Partners Group Holding AG or Partners Group, the globally fourth largest listed private equity, infrastructure, real estate and private credit asset manager has invested large part of its recently raised assets in artificial intelligence, AI technology companies leveraged buyouts, artificial intelligence, AI data center firms acquisitions as part of its infrastructure business, artificial intelligence, AI data centers as part of its real estate business and given out billions of USDs in loans to artificial intelligence, AI mid sized technology firms as part of its private credit asset management division.

In a base case, Partners Group's intrinsic value is 39 billion USDs, compared with Partner's Group's current market capitalization of 25.31 billion Swiss Francs on the Swiss Stock Exchange or 32.903 billion USDs, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

Partners Group operates 184.9 billion USDs of assets under management as of end 2025.

Partners Group reported net profit of 578.2 million CHFs on revenue of 1.1199 billion of CHFs in the first half of 2025. 

If artificial intelligence, AI lives up to the most optimistic forecasts of Wall Street research analysts and investors and Silicon Valley technologists and investors and artificial intelligence, AI increases humanity's productivity dramatically, Partners Group's market capitalization could rise to 74 billion USDs.

If on the other hand, the current artificial intelligence, AI boom turns into a bust and the Nasdaq Composite falls more than 62 % from its all time high, Partners Group market capitalization could fall to 14 billion USDs, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

Partners Group, along with the other leading private, equity, real estate, private credit and infrastructure asset managers Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, EQT etc. is currently to a large extent an indirect investment in the artificial intelligence, AI boom. 

 

EQT AB. The Private Equity Firm Valuation

EQT AB Group or EQT is a Stockholm, Sweden global, leading alternative asset manager.

EQT operates 270 billion EURs of assets under management of which 141 billion EURs are fee paying assets under management. 

EQT's current market capitalization is 33.78 billion EURs.

EQT's net income for 2025 was 728 million EURs on 2.632 billion EURs revenue.

EQT has invested large part of its recently raised private equity assets in artificial intelligence, AI technology firms leveraged buyouts, its recently raised real estate assets into artificial intelligence, AI related data centers.

EQT is is undervalued in a base case scenario, namely AI adoption and productivity increase growing moderately, with intrinsic value of EQT of 39 billion EURs, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

If AI lives up to the most optimistic forecasts of Wall Street research analysts and investors and of Silicon Valley technologists and investors and changes deeply our world by profoundly increasing humanity's productivity, EQT's market capitalization could rise to 59 billion EURs.

If on the other hand, the current artificial intelligence, AI boom turns into a bust and the Nasdaq Composite falls more than 62 % from its recent all time high, EQT's market capitalization could fall to 12 billion EURs, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

In short, EQT's value is deeply intertwined with artificial intelligence, AI's development, like basically all other leading private equity, real estate, private credit, infrastructure alternative asset managers like Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, etc.'s fate. Because the leading alternative asset managers have to a large extent underwritten the current artificial intelligence, AI boom.

Key operational metrics
Distributions to shareholders€m 2025 2024
Dividends 461 373
Share repurchases 296 118
Total 757 4912025 2024
Gross fund investments (€bn ) 16 22
Gross fund exits (€bn ) 19 11
FAUM (€bn , end of period ) 141 136
Total AUM (€bn , end of period ) 270 269
FTE (end of period) 1,863 1,886

Consolidated income statement 
The below table shows figures according to IFRS Accounting Standards . For adjusted
figures corresponding to the internal reporting please refer to Note 1 and section
”Alternative performance measures (APM)”.€m Note H2 2025 H2 2024 2025 2024
Management fees 1,060 1,016 2,173 2,053
Fee-related performance revenues 9 0 10 0
Transaction, advisory, and other fees 64 41 100 51
Fee-related revenue 1,133 1,057 2,283 2,104
Carried interest and investment income 3 227 364 349 549
Total revenue 1 1,360 1,421 2,632 2,653
Personnel expenses -438 -424 -882 -844
Acquisition related personnel expenses -39 -97 -96 -228
Other operating expenses 4 -142 -138 -273 -257
Total operating expenses -618 -659 -1,251 -1,329
Operating profit before depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) 741 762 1,382 1,324
Depreciation and amortization -41 -34 -79 -71
Amortization of acquisition related intangible assets -171 -183 -350 -365
Operating profit (EBIT) 529 545 953 888
Net financial income and expenses -67 -0 -57 11
whereof change in fair value of contingent consideration - 16 - 16
Profit before income tax (EBT) 462 545 896 899
Income taxes -80 -51 -168 -123
Net income 382 494 728 776
Attributable to
- Owners of the parent company 382 494 728 776
- Non-controlling interests - - - -
Earnings per share , €
before dilution 0.326 0.418 0.619 0.656
after dilution 0.325 0.418 0.618 0.656
Average number of shares
before dilution 1,173,315,881 1,181,750,349 1,176,544,588 1,183,153,914
after dilution 1,175,331,390 1,182,762,833 1,178,560,097 1,184,166,399 

 

 

Data Storage Companies Seem To Be The Current Momentum Stocks

 

Micron Technology Inc, SanDisk Corp, Western Digital Corp, Seagate Technology Holdings PLC and other data storage technology companies seem to be the current positive momentum stocks. Stocks that in recent time, the rolling year have made the greatest gains that is.

With the pending near 600 billion USDs investments in 2026 alone in AI centers by Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta alone the demand for data storage products like SSD hard discs, hard discs, memory storage cards and other data center products is jumping by more than 50 % year on year. The net profit margin on data storage products is also rising by 50 % - 70 % a year.

And companies like  Micron Technology Inc, SanDisk Corp, Western Digital Corp, Seagate Technology Holdings PLC etc. data storage companies stand to benefit enormously.

Micron Technology Inc, SanDisk Corp, Western Digital Corp, Seagate Technology Holdings PLC are all short-term to mid-term undervalued, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates. 

Alphabet Valuation In A Positive And A Negative AI Scenario

 

Alphabet Inc, Google owner's market capitalization is 3.9 trillion USDs currently.

If artificial intelligence, AI performs to the most optimistic forecasts of Wall Street analysts and investors and Silicon Valley investors and technologists Alphabet's market capitalization could rise to 9.5 trillion USDs.

If artificial intelligence, AI on the other hand turns out to be a bubble and spectacularly bursts dragging to some extent the global economy with it and the Nasdaq Compostite falls more than 62 % from its all time high, Alphabet's market capitalization could fall to 900 billion USDs, accordin to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

There is another option. Technology companies are usually asset light. Even with their cloud business Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft do not invest in hard or soft assets too large a proportion of their net income and retained income, relative to mining companies, industrials, consumer discretionary, consumer staples or financials even.

With the huge artificial intelligence, AI data-center build out going currently, whereby Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta could invest in hard data center hardware a sum exceeding 500 billion USDs in 2026 alone, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta could be re rated more like a hardware company like Apple.

Apple trades at Price/Sales ratio of 3, while Alphabet and Microsoft trade at a Price/Sales ratio of close to 10. Amazon at Price/Sales at close to 4 and Meta at Price/Sales close to 9.

In short, Alphabet's valuation could fall only because it is planning investing more than 150 billion USD in 2026 alone as excerpted from its fourth quarter 2025 earnings statement:

Alphabet: 'To meet customer demand and capitalize on the growing opportunities we have ahead of us, our 2026 CapEx investments are anticipated to be in the range of $175 to $185 billion.”

CVC Valuation In A Positive And A Negative AI Scenario

CVC Capital Partners PLC or CVC, one of the largest private equity, real estate, private credit and infrastructure alternative asset managers globally with 201 billion EURs of assets under management and one of the largest in Europe in particular has invested heavily its assets raised in the last 5 years in artificial intelligence, AI technology companies via leveraged buyouts, AI data centers via private credit lending and real estate investing and energy companies and data center assets via its infrastructure investments.

CVC's market capitalization is 13.63 billion EURs currently.

If artificial intelligence, AI lives up to the most positive forecasts of Wall Street equity research analysts and investors and Silicon Valley technologists and investors, CVC's market capitalization could reach 57 billion EURs.

If on the other hand, artificial intelligence, AI flops and an artificial intelligence, AI multi trillion USDs possible bubble bursts and the Nasdaq Composite Index falls more than 62 % from its recent all time high, CVC's market capitalization could fall to 7.3 billion EURs.

The probable artificial intelligence, AI technology IPO wave with multi billion and even trillions of USDs valued companies like Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI going public in 2026 could bring about a flurry of deal activity enabling CVC and other leading private equity, private credit and real estate asset managers to offload their investments at sky high valuations and values. A similar flurry of IPOs in particular and M&A activity in 2021 was followed by Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Blue Owl, Ares, CVC etc. and other leading private equity and private credit companies doubling their market capitalization on the back of successful deals driven by the 2021 low interest rate environment and money creation by the Federal Reserve which along with forecast large technology wave due to the possibility of working more productivelt from home drove technology and other companies valuation to very high values and Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Blue Owl, Ares, CVC etc. private equity companies were able to make many successful deals values in trillions of USD.

In short, CVC's intrinsic value is 32 billion EURs, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

 

Can A Dovish Federal Reserve And AI Productivity Gains Lead To A 2026 US Stocks Bull Market?

Many Wall Street equity research analysts tout the possible inclination of the Federal Reserve to lower the Federal Funds Rate and thus interest levels in the US economy under incoming Governor of The Federal Reserve Kevin Warsh and realization of strong productivity gains due to artificial intelligence, AI as a reason for the S&P 500 to clock in a fourth year of the ongoing bull market.

Yes, lower interest rateswill provide cheap capital for firms, while artificial intelligence, AI could improve drastically the productivity of firms and thus raise US GDP by close to 4 % in the positive case,

A 2026 bull market is not certain, though, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

Another AI competition scare like the Chinese DeepSeek in 2025, excessive valuation concerns, lower Federal reserve balance sheet assets value or lower productivity growth concerns could actually bring along a down year for the S&P 500.

The risks and positive perspectives seem tilted in favor of a positive outcome, with possible large negative reaction to a negative outcome.

The S&P 500 could rise between 7 % and 12 % in a probable scenario, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections.

If, on the other hand a tightened financial conditions, financial credit or low AI productivity gains shock materializes, the S&P 500 could fall between 8 % and 19 % in 2026.

Blackstone Valuation In A Positive And A Negative AI Scenario

 

Blackstone Inc or Blackstone, the leading private equity, real estate, private credit and infrastructure asset management company's market capitalization is 159.472 billion USD.

Blackstone has heavily invested its assets under management raised in the last 5 years in artificial intelligence, AI technology companies via leveraged buyouts, in artificial intelligence, AI data centers via its real estate and private credit assets under management and in artificial intelligence, AI energy companies via its infrastructure and real estate assets under management.

If artificial intelligence, AI changes the world profoundly and lives up to the current forecasts of Wall Street research analysts and investors and Silicon Valley technologists and investors Blackstone's market capitalization could rise to 430 billion USDs. 

If on the other hand, the artificial intelligence, AI boom turns into a bust and the Nasdaq Composite falls more than 62 % from its peak, Blackstone's market capitalization could fall to 80 billion USDs.

Below are some capital metrics of Blackstone from its Q4 2025 earnings release: 

Total Assets Under Management (“AUM”) of $1,274.9 billion
– Fee-Earning AUM of $921.7 billion
– Perpetual Capital AUM of $523.6 billion
▪ Inflows of $71.5 billion in the quarter and $239.4 billion for the year
▪ Deployment of $42.2 billion in the quarter and $138.2 billion for the year
▪ Realizations of $46.1 billion in the quarter and $125.6 billion for the year 

In short, Blackstone is undervalued on its artificial intelligence, AI investments.

Blackstone's intrinsic worth is 310 billion USDs, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates. 

KKR Valuation In A Positive And Negative AI Scenario

 

KKR & Co Inc or KKR, the private equity, real estate, private credit and infrastructure asset management firm, which manages 723 billion USDs of total assets across Credit & Liquid Strategies ($315bn), Private
Equity ($222bn) & Real Assets ($186bn) has staked much of its near term future on investing large portion of its asset under management in artificial intelligence, AI related companies and artificial intelligence, AI data center infrastructure.

KKR buys out mid market technology companies via leveraged buyouts via its private equity funds, invests large portion of its real estate assets under management in artificial intelligence, AI data centers, lends large portion of its private credit assets under management to artificial intelligence, AI technology companies and also finances with private credit the private equity buyouts it does of artificial intelligence, AI technology companies. KKR invests large portion of its infrastructure assets under management in artificial intelligence, AI data centers infrastructure and energy companies that would provide energy for artificial intelligence, AI data center infrastructure.

In short, KKR invests large portion of its newly raised assets under management from the last five years in artificial intelligence, AI.

If artificial intelligence, AI lives up to the current forecasts of Wall Street analysts and investors and Silicon Valley investors and technologists and increases humanity's productivity exponentially, KKR could end up with 430 billion USDs market capitalization.

If artificial intelligence, AI on the other hand flops in changing profoundly how humanity produces goods and services, consumes leisure and generally lives by turning out to be not such a remarkable break-through technology, KKR's market capitalization could fall to 38 billion USDs from KKR's current market capitalization of  101.85 billion USDs, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

The so called hyperscalers or huge technology companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta from relatively capital light technology capital expenditure investment companies are becoming very both in relative and absolute terms high capital expenditure companies expected to invest hundreds of billions of USDs in capital expenditure in 2026 alone. This could reset their valuation to more look like hardware, than software companies.

If the artificial intelligence, AI boom turns into a bust the Nasdaq Composite could fall 62 % from its recent all time highs, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

 

 

Ares And Its Leveraged Investments In AI

Ares Management Corp or Ares, the leading global private equity, private credit and real estate asset management firm has invested much of its newly raised assets in recent years in artificial intelligence, AI technology companies leveraged buyouts, private lending to AI technology companies and in AI data center related real estate.

Ares and other leading private equity firms tend to finance 30 % of the private equity buyout of AI technology firms with paid up-front equity and the rest is borrowed in debt in the form of bank lending and high yield bonds. Also in many cases the private equity buyout of AI technology firms is financed with Ares' private credit assets under management at interest rates of 7 % to 15 %. Ares real estate financing of AI data centers is done to a large extent also with borrowed money. This approach makes Ares' investments in AI technology companies leveraged.

Add to that the operational leverage inherent in technology companies, be they also AI companies. Here it must be noted that AI data center investment is becoming a high capital expenditure business for the companies involved in it.

Ares' investments in AI due to their leverage stand to be magnified in their outcome, both in terms of wins and losses.

If the AI boom transforms our world as to the forecasts of leading investors, analysts and technologists, Ares' market capitalization could rise to 120 billion USDs. If the AI boom turns into bust and the Nasdaq Composite falls 62 % from its peak, however, Ares' market capitalization could fall to 19 billion USDs from Ares' current market capitalization of 50.96 billion USDs, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

Blue Owl And Its Leveraged Investments In AI

 

Blue Owl Capital Inc, the leading private credit asset manager invests large part of its newly raised private credit assets in artificial intelligence, AI technology companies, AI related energy companies and AI data center infrastructure.

Private credit loans often carry interest rates of 7 % to 15 %. On top of that AI technology are operationally leveraged, since they usually require relatively small investments in factories and land.

Lately, however, AI has become capital intensive with the data center build out by leading AI technology firms. 

Thus Blue Owl is double leveraged on its AI private credit investments.

If the AI boom goes on and changes the world as it is currently forecast by many analysts and investors, Blue Owl market capitalization could rise to 54 billion USDs.

If, on the other hand the AI boom turns into bust and the Nasdaq Composite falls by more than 65 % from its peak, Blue Owl's market capitalization could fall to 12 billion USDs from the current Blue Owl's market capitalization of 23.61 billion USD, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

CVC And Its Leveraged Investments In AI

 

CVC Capital Partners, CVC, the leading European private equity, private credit, secondaries and infrastructure asset manager has invested large part of its newly raised private equity, private credit, secondaries and infrastructure assets into artificial intelligence, AI related technology companies, AI related energy companies, and AI data center infrastructure projects.

Much of the private credit raised by CVC goes to fund loans for leveraged buyouts of technology companies. Leveraged buyout deals are leveraged since alternative asset managers like CVC secure around 30 % of the funds needed to buy out the technology firm in equity and the rest is borrowed by bank lending or high yield bonds.

CVC and most other leading technology companies use the private credit funds they have raised to fund the leveraged buyout debt portion. This puts additional leverage in the technology buy out deals. Many of the technology companies CVC and other leading private equity firms invest in are AI companies.

Finally, like most technology investments AI companies are operationally leveraged, because AI and technology in general insures high scalability without billions of USDs in initial investments in land, factories and infrastructure.That said, AI has recently become quite a capital intensive business, since to run and produce AI Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta have each invested  30 billion USDs in 2025 only in AI data center and cloud computing related infrastructure.

So, CVC is double if not triple leveraged in its investments in AI technology companies via its private equity, private credit, secondaries and infrastructure funds. This large leverage magnifies gains but also increases losses multiple fold on the downside for CVC's investments.

In an AI positive case CVC's market capitalization could rise to 45 EURs. However, if the AI booms turns into bust and drags the Nasdaq 65 % from its peak, CVC's market capitalization could fall to 8 billion EURs from CVC's current 15.94 billion EUR market capitalization, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

 

Are The AI Hyperscalers Turning Into Capital Intensive Businesses?

 

Technology companies are usually regarded as capital light, operationally leveraged.

Exception are companies like Intel, AMD, NVIDIA, Broadcom and other computer chip and equipment producers.

The hyperscalers AI companies Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are also regarded as not hugely capital intensive businesses. Which makes them trade at relatively high both individual and sector software Price/Earnings, Price/Book and Price/Sales ratio.

Recently, however, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta have all invested tens of billions if USDs in AI data center infrastructure. Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta have each invested more than 20 billion USDs in AI data centers in 2025.

Does this turn the hyperscalers into slower, capital intensive businesses?

Not currently. Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta still remain agile, fast moving and fast growing be they mega cap companies each worth more than 1.5 trillion USDs, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

Artificial intelligence, AI simply develops very fast and compensates for the billions of USDs of capital outlays. 

Carlyle And Its Leveraged Investments In AI

 

Carlyle Group Inc, the fourth largest listed private equity, private credit, real estate and infrastructure group and the second largest private credit alternative asset manager in terms of managed private credit assets in the world, has invested a large part of its newly raised private credit funds in loans to mid and large capitalization artificial intelligence, AI technology companies, private equity buyouts of AI technology companies and lending to buy and invest in AI data centers and AI energy infrastructure.

The private credit loans in which Carlyle is most active in giving out to AI technology firms carry interest rates of usually 7 % to 15 %. By giving out private credit to AI firms Carlyle essentially takes on financial leverage, because at such high interest rates the tens of billions of USDs of private credit loans Carlyle disburses each recent year could be completely wiped out since they are high on the capital structure of the AI technology firms that receive these very high interest of 7 % to 15 % loans. Since Carlyle is the second largest alternative asset manager in terms of private credit assets under management in the world managing 208 billion USDs in private credit, this makes Carlyle deeply financially leveraged on the AI technology sector.

Carlyle also makes billions of USDs of private equity buyouts of technology firms a year. Since only 30 % of these investments is via an equity down payment and the rest is borrowed debt via bank lending and high yield bonds, Carlyle's private equity investments are also leveraged.

Artificial technology, AI as most technology investments is operationally leveraged. That said, the leading hyperscalers Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta are investing circa 25 billions USDs a year in AI data center infrastructure, which makes them a capital intensive business. A similar capital intensive AI investments trend is observed in mid sized AI technology firms. That said, AI technology still provides operational leverage. And AI firms are still valued as not capital intensive technology firms by Wall Street equity research analysts and investors and Silicon valley technology investors and technologists.

So Carlyle is double leveraged via financial borrowing leverage and technology operational leverage on AI in its assets under management investments.

If the AI boom continues to flourish, Carlyle's market capitalization could reach 109 billion USDs.

If the AI boom turns into a bust and the Nasdaq Composite falls more than 62 % from its recent peak, Carlyle's market capitalization could fall to 9 billion USDs from the current 23.65 billion USDs Carlyle market capitalization. , according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

 

Apollo And Its Leveraged Investments In AI

 

Apollo, the third largest private equity, private credit, real estate and infrastructure asset management firm has invested large part of its newly raised assets in the last 5 years in artificial intelligence, AI technology firms via private equity buyouts, private credit lending at interest rates of 7 % to 15 % to mid and large technology companies, real estate AI data centers investments and AI energy infrastructure investments.

Apollo's AI technology firms private equity buyouts are leveraged since only about 30 % of the investments is via equity down payment, the rest circa 70 % are sourced via high yield bonds or bank lending, which makes the private equity AI technology firm buyout an essentially leveraged 2.3:1 investment from Apollo's private equity assets under management.

Apollo gives out private credit loans at interest rates of 7 % to 15 % to mid sized technology companies, which makes for a financially leveraged investment.

Apollo's real estate AI data centers investment are usually done with additional leverage in the form of bank loans and high yield debt.

Apollo's AI energy infrastructure investments are also financed in part via leveraged bank lending and high yield bonds.

Add to that, that artificial intelligence, AI firms are operationally leveraged on the AI technology. That said, lately AI technology firms are becoming very capital intensive as they build out data center infrastructure.

So in short, large part of Apollo's assets under management invested in artificial intelligence, AI are essentially double leveraged.

If the AI's boom continues, Apollo's market capitalization could rise to 203 billion USDs.

If on the other hand, AI turns out to be a bubble and it bursts dragging the Nasdaq Composite more than 65 % from its peak, Apollo's market capitalization could fall to 40 billion USDs, from Apollo's current market capitalization of 86.33 billion USDs., according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.