Private Credit And The Current Oil Shock

 

According to some analysts and investors around 30 % of the capital raised in the last 7 years by the leading large and mid cap private equity, private credit, real estate and infrastructure asset managers has gone into artificial intelligence, AI, technology and altogether software companies.

AI and software related investments make up around 20 % of the total portfolio of the Blackstone, KKR, BlackRock, TPG, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, EQT, Partners Group etc. leading private equity and private credit asset managers, according to research analysts, investors and media.

The world is experiencing an oil shock as the price of oil went up more than 60 % from three weeks ago.

The current shock oil price rise will most likely cause a global economy inflation shock. The rising prices will most likely force the Federal Reserve to withhold from raising the Federal Funds Rate in 2026. The probabilities of the Federal Reserve raising rates in 2026 fell by a lot after the Federal Reserve meeting last Wednesday.

Such a development would put a downward pressure on the valuations of AI, technology and software companies in the leading private equity, private credit firms portfolios.

And the fall in portfolio values of the leading private equity firms will be even more exacerbated if the probable inflation shock caused the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and other leading central banks to start hiking rates in the near future.

The probable negative effect of rising interest rates should be temporary and not catastrophic due to artificial intelligence, AI's innovation potential and the huge positive cash flows generated not only by the hyperscalers Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta, but also by many mid cap and smaller AI firms. 

The Current Private Credit Stock Market Fall And Turmoil

 

The current turmoil in private credit his hurting the stock prices of the leading private equity, private credit, real estate and infrastructure asset managers Blackstone, BlackRock, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, TPG, Ares, Blue Owl, EQT, CVC, Partners Group etc. by causing them to fall circa 35 % or more from their recent peak.

The main issue is that  private equity, private credit, real estate and infrastructure has suffered a bifurcation and most of the recently raised capital in the last 5-7 years has gone in artificial intelligence, AI related projects like AI data centers build out financed with raised means for private credit and real estate loans leveraged even more with bank loans or private equity buyouts of small and medium sized software, AI, technology companies financed with high yield debt, bank loans and even private credit loans.

So the whole private equity, private credit, real estate and infrastructure industry at the moment gathers momentum as one giant artificial intelligence, AI trade, leveraged to the bring with bank loans, exposing also both the money center and regional banks to the AI trade, directly.

AI, however is threatening to disrupt the software sector by replacing IT programmers.

Such concerns are overblown, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

If the artificial intelligence, AI boom continues or suffers a small setback defined by the Nasdaq Composite falling up to 20 % from its peak, the private equity and private credit industry will suffer losses, but their immediate future will not be threatened.

If the artificial intelligence, AI boom turns into bust, however defined by the Nasdaq Composite falling more than 40 % from its recent all time high, the leading private equity, private credit, real estate and infrastructure asset managers Blackstone, BlackRock, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, TPG, Ares, Blue Owl, EQT, CVC, Partners Group etc. and many small and mid cap private equity, private credit asset managers could face huge difficulties, potentially turning into existential threats, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates 

BlackRock And Private Credit

BlackRock Inc, apart from being the leading global asset manager of public equities, has high aspirations in private credit.

In 2024 20 billion USDs of BlackRock's revenue came from the Private Markets and Technology segment of BlackRock's financial results or about 15 % of 2024 revenue. BlackRock aims to lift the Private Markets and Technology percentage of revenue to 30 % of revenue or 35 billion USDs by 2030.

BlackRock targets a 400 billion USD to fund raise in the 2025-2030 period. 

All of the above compares with the 1.23 trillion USDs Blackstone manages and in 2025 Blackstone made 3.02 billion USD in profit on 14.21 billion USDs in revenue.

Blackrock is regarded as the world largest alternative asset manager.

BlackRock could soon surpass Blackstone.

Last week BlackRock limited withdrawals on an HPS private credit fund.

This was the latest blow for the private credit industry.

The private credit industry should be able to survive the asset withdrawal wave, provided that the AI boom goes as private credit asset managers have about 20 % of their assets exposure to artificial intelligence, AI technology companies.

If, however, AI turns out to be a bubble and bursts, defined by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite falling more than 35 % and 45 % from their recent peaks many large, medium and small private equity, private credit asset managers could battle insolvency. 

Cliffwater Limits Private Credit Withdrawals. Effect On Private Credit

 

Cliffwater limits redemptions from its Cliffwater Corporate Lending Fund.

This is the latest from a serious of troubles facing the private credit and private equity asset management business.

Investors are worrying that alternative asset managers have financed private equity leveraged buyouts of overvalued technology companies and have given out private credit loans to over leveraged mid sized AI technology firms.

On top of that artificial intelligence, AI could disrupt many software businesses.

If the AI boom does not turn out to a bust, the private equity and private credit industry should turn out OK.

If there is a AI bubble burst, similar to the Dot Com bust, the private equity and private credit industry will face serious difficulties. 

 

Morgan Stanley Limits Withdrawals From A Private Credit Fund. The Effect On Private Credit

 

Morgan Stanley limited last week withdrawals from one of its private credit funds, by allowing only 45.8 % of tender requests to be fulfilled.

Morgan Stanley said it would fulfill 5 % equivalent of assets tender requests as of December 31, 2025.

After First Brands, Tricolor, Blue Owl holding redemptions from its OBDC II fund and later selling off 1.4 billion USDs of assets to pension funds and insurance companies to finance withdrawals, BlackRock writing off a loan to 100 %, which only three months before was carried at 100 % on the book, Morgan Stanley holding withdrawals from one of its funds is the latest troublesome sign for the private credit and by extension the largest private equity asset managers Blackstone, KKR, BlackRock, Apolli, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, TPG, EQT, Partners Group etc, and the whole mid cap and small cap private equity business.

Blackstone, KKR, BlackRock, Apolli, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, TPG, EQT, Partners Group etc have lent a large part of their recently, in the last 5-7 years raised assets to artificial intelligence, AI technology and software firms. AI, mainly mid sized, according to some investors is disrupting many software business.

As long as the current artificial intelligence, AI boom does not turn into bust where by the Nasdaq Composite falls by more than 32 % from its recent all time high,   Blackstone, KKR, BlackRock, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, TPG, EQT, Partners Group etc, and the whole mid cap and small cap private equity business firms should not face solvency issues, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

If the artificial intelligence, AI boom turns into bust and the Nasdaq Composite tanks from 30 % to 62 % from its recent high,  Blackstone, KKR, BlackRock, Apolli, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, TPG, EQT, Partners Group etc, and the whole mid cap and small cap private equity business will face huge, possibly existential difficulties. 

MFS Market Financial Solutions And Private Credit

MFS, Market Financial Solutions the UK bridging mortgage loans provider suddenly collapsed last month saddling private credit funds that had lent to it with more than 1 billion USDs in losses.

MFS creditors claim a 1.8 billion USDs shortfall in the assets of MFS, the collapsed UK mortgage lender.

After First Brands, Tricolor, MFS is the latest insolvency to hit the private equity, private credit, infrastructure, real estate asset management industry.

Last week BlackRock wrote off a private credit loan to 0 %, which just three months ago was carried at 100 % on BlackRock's books.

 As long as the AI boom continues, the private credit industry is safe, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

If the AI boom turns into bust, however, whereby the Nasdaq Composite falls 62 % from its most recent peak, the private credit could face solvency issues. 

If the Nasdaq Composite falls 32 % from its most recent peak, the private credit will also face enormous difficulties. 

BlackRock's Private Credit Exposure

BlackRock in the previous week wrote down the value of a private credit loan to Amazon aggregator to 0 % from 100 % just three months ago.

For now Blackrock's exposure private credit exposure looks manageable.

As long as there is no bursting of an AI bubble, defined by the Nasdaq Compoasite falling more than 35 % from its most recent high.

Then all the leading private credit, private equity players Blackstone, BlackRock, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, TPG, CVC, EQT, Partners Group and all the mid sized private equity firms will face difficulties. 

BlackRock Writes Down A Second Loan To Zero

BlackRock wrote down a second loan to zero in the space of 8 months.

And it took for the latest write down to 0 only 3 months after the loan was carried at 100 % on the books. 

The problems in the private credit sector seem to be piling up after the Tricolor, First Brands and Market Financial Solutions(MFS) collapsing.

All three, including the lender Market Financial Solutions drew fraud and improprieties accusations.

On top of that, Blue Owl first tried to merge a hundreds of millions of USDs of private credit loans OBDC II fund into another, then held off redemptions in it and recently sold off 1.4 billion USDs of assets to finance redemptions. 

According to analysts the software sector accounts for around 20 % of private credit loans.

In short, as long as the artificial intelligence, AI boom does not turn to a bust and the Nasdaq corrects by more than 30 %, if not more than 62 %, the private equity, private credit, real estate and infrastructure asset management leaders Blackstone, BlackRock, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, TPG, CVC, EQT,  Partners Group and the rest of the private equity, private credit sector should recover, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

BlackRock Writes Off A Private Credit Loan To Zero

BlackRock wrote down a private credit loan to zero. For a second time.

The leading private credit, private equity asset management firms Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, TPG, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, EQT, Partners Group etc. seem to be struggling.

First Brands and Tricolor to which private credit firms had hundreds of millions of exposure collapsed in 2025.

One month ago Blue Owl announced it will hold off redemptions from its OBDC II fund.

And only three weeks ago week Blue Owl announced it had sold 1.4 billion USD of assets to finance OBDC II redemptions.

The leading private credit, private equity asset management firms Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, TPG, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, EQT, Partners Group etc. will recover from the current crisis in 2-3 years, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

The above forecast is predicated on the AI boom going on and not turning into bust.

If an AI bubble bursts and the Nasdaq Composite falls 62 % from its recent peak, wiping out trillions of USDs in value, the leading private credit, private equity asset management firms Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, TPG, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, EQT, Partners Group etc. could face solvency issues. 

The Private Credit Turmoil

 

First Brands, Tricolor and now Market Financial Solutions (MFS) are all high profile defaults that have rocked the nearly 2 trillion USDs in assets under management private credit sector.

Mohamed El-Erian and some other high profile analysts and portfolio managers are talking about a canary in the coal mine event. Some investors and analysts compare the  First Brands, Tricolor bankrupties and the Blue Owl holding redemption from its 1.6 billion OBDC II fund to the freezing of assets and withdrawals from one BNP Paribas and now defunct Bear Stearns mortgage backed securities funds that were a precursor to the financial crisis and Great Recession in 2008-2009.

Are we on the precipice of a new financial crisis?

No.

Even being 3.5 trillions USDs in assets under management, the private credit sector is not big enough to drag down the global economy and its more than 300 trillion USDs in financial assets, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

The main players in private credit, which are also the leaders in the 9.917 trillion of assets under management, private equity business, namely Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, EQT, Partners Group etc. will not be disastrously affected, because the private credit losses of  First Brands, Tricolor and now Market Financial Solutions (MFS) do not eat directly at their equity capital. 

Yes,  Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, TPG, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, EQT, Partners Group have lost more than 30 % from their market capitalization from their stocks' peaks in the last two years, but Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, TPG Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, EQT, Partners Group are still raising hundreds of billions of USDs of assets each year, which drive their revenue and profits.

Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, TPG, Blue Owl, CVC, EQT, Partners Group could be really hurt if the artificial intelligence, AI boom we are currently experiencing turns into a bust and destroys hundreds of billions of USDs of value in  Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, EQT, Partners Group's more than 2.5 trillions of assets under management altogether.

Another black swan event for the private credit sector is if banks stop providing the leading private equity private credit asset managers with credit lines and high yield bonds with which Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, TPG, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, EQT, Partners Group finance leveraged buyouts both via high-yield, 'junk' bonds and high interest bank loans. 

TPG Valuation

TPG Inc or TPG, the leading global private equity, private credit, real estate and infrastructure asset manager which manages 303 billion USDs of assets is undervalued.

TPG's stock market capitalization has fallen recently along with the artificial intelligence, AI technology companies hyperscalers Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta and the mid-sized AI companies since large part of the 303 billion USDs TPG manages are invested in artificial intelligence, AI technology companies' equity, lent via 7 % to 15 % loans to mid-sized AI technology companies, energy companies providing fuel and energy to AI data centers and AI data centers build out via TPG's infrastructure assets.

In a negative AI scenario TPG's market capitalization could fall further to 9 billion USD compared to TPG's current market capitalization of 16.68 billion USDs. 

TPG's intrinsic value is 54 billion USDs, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates. 

Why Have Leading Private Equity Stocks Fallen Since Beginning Of 2026?

 

The main reason the stock market capitalization of Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, TPG, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, EQT, Partners Group etc. listed leading global private equity, private credit, real estate and infrastructure asset managers has fallen around 30 % is their investments in artificial intelligence, AI technology companies since 2020.

 Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, TPG, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, EQT, Partners Group etc. have invested large part of their newly raised private equity, private credit, real estate and infrastructure assets in artificial intelligence, AI technology leveraged buyouts, have given high interest private credit loans to mid-sized AI technology companies, have invested in energy companies providing energy and fuel for the AI companies data centers and invested in infrastructure artificial intelligence, AI data centers construction and logistics centers infrastructure for online merchandising providers.

Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta have lost more than 10 %, Microsoft around 20 % of their market capitalization since the beginning of 2026 dragging all mid-sized and smaller artificial intelligence, AI comnpanies' mareket capitalization along with them.

Hence, the portfolios of Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, TPG, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, EQT, Partners Group etc., full of AI technology companies depreciated in value.

A big role played that Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, TPG, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, EQT, Partners Group etc. have done leveraged buyouts and lent private credit funds for many AU technology companies in bulk in 2021 and 2022 at stratospheric valuations which are now coming down to earth.

After the sell off is done the stocks of Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, TPG, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, EQT, Partners Group etc. could prove undervalued, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates. 

Private Credit And New Bad Loans

 

After the TriColor Holdings and First Brands Group bad credit events Blue Owl, one of the top three leading private credit asset managers in the world tired to merge two of its funds, OBDC II including.

Now Blue Owl stopped redemptions last week from OBDC II and sold 1.4 billion USDs of private credit loans to North American insurance and pensions companies to finance 30 % of redemptions from its retail focused OBDC II fund.

There is an article several months ago from the Wall Street Journal that says banks have tightened credit lending standards to private credit, private equity asset managers. JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and many mid market money center banks actively participated in private credit deals by on the on hand lending money to private equity and private credit asset managers like Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, Partners Group, EQT etc. to finance private equity buyouts and on the other hand giving out money for private credit loans made in those same private equity buyouts of predominantly artificial intelligence and other AI technology companies in the recent years.

In addition, the money center banks gave out credits directly to the companies of Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, Partners Group, EQT etc.

Thus the money center banks finance from three sides Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, Partners Group, EQT etc. in their private equity buyouts and private credit activities, which distributes leveraged financial risk in the US and by extension the global financial system.

If there are new large profile and large in nominal terms private credit defaults like TriColor and First Brands, the money center banks are bound to suffer along with Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, Partners Group, EQT etc., which have seen their market capitalization fall by more than 30 % in the last 1 year and a half.

If there are new large scale private equity buyouts and private credit defaults, the market capitalization of Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, Partners Group, EQT etc. could fall 23 % more from the current levels.

After that, most probably the stocks of Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, Partners Group, EQT etc. will recover as bad loans gradually clean out from the leveraged buyouts and private credit universe, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates. 

Blue Owl Raises 1.4 Billion USDs To Pay Off Redemptions

 

Blue Owl Capital Inc or Blue Owl announced last week it holds clients redemptions from its OBDC II fund.

OBDC II had a redemption limit of 5 % a month. Blue Owl announced last week it would pay off 30 % to investors in OBDC II instead.

The Blue Owl 1.4 billions USD asset sales is to four leading North American public pension and insurance investors.

With the 1.4 billion USD asset sale Blue Owl aims to calm investors as to the state of the private credit asset managers and especially their exposure to software companies.

18 % of private equity, private credit deal making in 2025 consisted of technology companies.

As a consequence of software and technology exposure value the leading private equity, private credit markets companies' market capitalization fell circa 30 % from their recent peaks  

Blue Owl should recover along with the rest of the technology sectors in 2-3 years, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

 

What Would It Take For A Large Correction In Private Equity, Private Credit Stocks?

 

The stocks of Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC etc., the largest private equity, private credit, real estate and infrastructure asset managers have declined around 30 % from their recent all time highs.

What would it take for their stock market capitalization to fall even further?

A bursting of a possible artificial intelligence, AI bubble could cause and even more dramatic fall in the stocks of  Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC etc., the largest private equity, private credit, real estate and infrastructure asset manages.

Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, EQT, Partners Group, etc. and most other large and medium size private private equity and private credit companies have invested large part of their assets raised in the last 7 years in artificial intelligence, AI technology large and mostly mid-sized companies private equity buyouts, have given private credit loans to fund those buyouts and lent directly to artificial intelligence, AI technology large and mostly mid-sized companies, have financed via their real estate assets artificial intelligence, AI data centers builds and have financed via their infrastructure assets under management energy companies providing energy for artificial intelligence, AI companies.

In short, if an artificial intelligence, AI bubble bursts the Nasdaq Composite could fall 62 % or more from its recent all time high and the stock market capitalization of  Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, EQT, Partners Group etc. could fall more than 50 % from their recent all time highs, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates

If the technology of artificial intelligence, AI recovers from its current slump and goes on to increase individuals, corporations and governments' productivity dramatically and turns out really to be the fourth industrial revolution and changes positively our society, the stocks of Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, EQT, Partners Group could recover in a dramatic fashion form their current decline and rise much above their recent all time highs, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

Is This The Bursting Of A Private Equity, Private Credit Bubble?

 

No.

One of the leading private credit and private equity firms in the world Blue Owl holding redemptions in a 600 million USD retail focused fund, the First Brands and TriColor bankruptcies earlier are a temporary setback for private equity, private credit, real estate and infrastructure, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

The stocks of the globally leading private equity, private credit, real estate and infrastructure investment firms Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle Ares, Blue Owl, CVC sank by between 5 % and 10 % on Thursday and Friday after Blue Owl announced it is holding redemptions in one of its funds, effectively freezing investors out of their money for a short lock-up period, gating that is. However, a faster alternative redemption schedule was offered by Blue Owl whereby investors get 30 % of their money quicker.

The main driver of Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle Ares, Blue Owl, CVC etc. private equity, private credit, real estate and infrastructure asset managers' stocks are their hundreds of billions of USDs investment of their funds raised in the last 7 years in artificial intelligence, AI. 

And artificial intelligence, AI's boom will most likely continue in the next 3-4 years, despite the current slowdown, correction and fret about artificial, AI coding automation on Software As A Service firms, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

In short, the stocks of Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle Ares, Blue Owl, CVC could fall circa 40 - 45 % from their recent peaks, but they will most likely recover along the AI technology giants stocks of Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft. In the mid-ter 3 to 5 years.

 

Blue Owl Holds Redemptions From One Of Its Funds. Valuations Scenario Analysis Of Private Equity, Private Credit Companies

 

Blue Owl, the leading global private equity, private credit, real estate alternative asset manager announced it is holding redemptions from one of its retail funds Blue Owl Capital Corp. II (OBDC II), a private, retail-facing debt fund, and instead will return capital through periodic distributions funded by loan repayments, asset sales or other strategic transactions.

The stocks of the leading global private equity, private credit, real estate, infrastructure asset managers Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, CVC fell most more than 5 % yesterday along with 6 % fall of Blue Owl's stock.

Some investors and analysts say this holding of redemptions of one of Blue Owl's funds might be a precursor to a financial crisis much like the holding of redemptions of two structured credit funds of Bear Stearns and BNP Paribas was for the great financial crises and Great Recession of 2008/2009.

There are three possible scenarios:

1) Quick recovery scenario. The stocks of  Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC are down circa 30 % from their recent peaks in the last rolling year. The stocks of  Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC could fall more, down more than 45 % from their recent peaks.

However, the stocks of  Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC would stage a recovery if things brighten up and it becomes clear that the Blue Owl, Tricolor and First Brands recently were one off events and the stocks of  Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC would rise substantially from their lows and surpass their peaks by high margin on the artificial intelligence, AI boom and the money that Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC have invested in AI companies.

Probability of this scenario is 40 %

2) Muddling through. It becomes clear that  Blue Owl, Tricolor and First Brands are serious cases, Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC loose tens of billions of USDs of their assets under management on these and other private credit bankruptcies. After some time the stocks of Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC will recover some lost ground but remain below their peaks in 2-3 years from now. Here a positive could be if the AI boom continues and Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC make some of the lost money on AI technology companies investments.

The probability of this scenario is 40 % 

 3) Full blown credit, financial and economic crisis.

The  Blue Owl, Tricolor and First Brands events are followed by many other bankruptcies. The credit delinquencies spread from Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC etc. private equity, private credit, real estate asset managers to the banks JPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, UBS, Deutsche Bank, Barclays etc. banks which have financed the private equity giants. Banks stop lending, people cut down on consumption, firms decrease drastically investments and the financial crisis becomes economic and  global and deep. Much as in 2008/2009. Large banks failures are possible.

The probability of this scenario is 20 %.

The most likely scenario is slow recovery for Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC etc. stocks and business, but recovery nonetheless, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.