Dear Reader,
US stocks are rising after the US Presidential Elections. I think they should continue to rise in 2017, but moderately. There are pockets of overvaluation in tech stocks, but generaly I do not see a fall larger than 30% in the Nasdaq in the near future.
I think the yield on the 10 year US government bond should continue to rise, but moderately. In 2017 the US treasuries yield should stay even below 3.00%.
The yield on 10 year German bunds should test zero(0) again. The ECB's buying of securites is a formidable force.
Oil seems stuck in the 40 to 60 USD range. I do not see US and global inflation rising. There are just too many headwinds, the leading economies are weak.
Gold is an interesting case. I think it could bounce off 1050 USD. The bottom of gold seems near.
The EUR/USD is heading to parity.
US banks and brokerages should continue to rise along with their European markets.
I think emerging markets will perform well in the next five years. The BRICS economies are big, important and already systemic for the world.
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Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
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