US Stocks!

Dear Reader,

I think oil woul hit 55 USD, but will trade in a range of 50 to 60 USD in much of the rest of 2016.

Global oil stocks have a bit further to rise.

There is a risk of large US stock market correction, bear market even.
DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P 500 could fall up to 20% from recent peaks.Gold is also prone to a large correction. Gold price could go back to 1050 USD in 2016. Gold stocks could sell off.

EUR/USD could go back to 1.05. USD/YEN could hit 100 in 2016.

I believe there is a distinct possibility of one federal funds rate hike by the Federal Reserve in 2016.

Parts of the tech bubble have already popped(GoPro, GroupOn, Fuel, Twitter, LinkedIn etc.), but a large scale economic disruption coming from tech stocks seems unlikely. Much of the market is nonpublic, so mainly Private Equity funds will suffer.

Many individuals hold nonpublic shares, so there is a small probability that a tech bubble bursting could hurt the average consumer.

All in all, I foresee mediocre returns from the US stock market. DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq should rise no more than 5-10% in 2016, with 5% increase more likely.


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