Dear Reader,
The German 2017 election results bode OK for Europe. There will be no debt mutualization, read the Germans will pay for everyone, which they cannot. The eurozone will continue integrating slowly which is the best option, as far as I am concerned.
Germany should start making small budget deficits which will put negligible upward pressure on the 10 year bunds yield.
EUR/USD should fall a bit. It is just too high.
Europe's banks should benefit from the German elections result.
Europe's growth will stay above 2%, which should prove beneficial for Europe's equities.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of the company where I am working currently!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
Stocks valuations, analysis. Unbiased. Insightful. Property of Wolfteam Ltd., www.wolfteamedge.com If you find the blog useful, LINK TO www.posledovich.blogspot.com Stocks, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, AI, analysis, insights. CLICK ADVERTISEMENTS, SHARE ON SOCIAL NETWORKS! Technology, Bitcoin, AI, company strategy, stocks analysis. Stocks, crypto involve high RISK! Nothing on this blog is meant or should be construed as investment recommendation to buy or sell securities or their derivatives!
Disclaimer:
Disclaimer: The blog posts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".
The blog is stocks analysis and valuation, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, Artificial Intelligence, AI, deep-learning focused. Independent, unbiased AI insights.
Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blog posts on this blog and posts on social networks.
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blog post and posts on social networks!
The blog is property of Wolfteam Ltd. www.wolfteamedge.com
Respectfully yours,
Petar Posledovich
Wednesday, September 27, 2017
Germany Elections Results, European Stocks!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Thursday, September 21, 2017
Are the Largest Capitalization US Technology Stocks(Big 5) Overvalued?
Dear Reader,
Many leading investors have said that technology stocks are in a bubble. I will take a look at the big 5 US and global technology stocks: Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Facebook.
The technology behemoths exhibit different valuation metrics. Apple has P/E Ratio of 17.75, Google's P/E is 34.30, Microsoft's P/E is at 27.67, Amazon's P/E is 245.56, Facebook's P/E is 37.40.
The internet advertising market is growing strongly -> 10-20% a year and this trend supports the high valuations of Google and Facebook. The internet commerce is exploding, so this keeps Amazon's valuation high. The cloud services market is one of the next big things, so Microsoft's valuation is supported. Apple is thought to be increasing its market share and coupled with the growth of the smartphone market and some analysts see it's market cap surpassing 1 trillion USD.
Are they overvalued? It is difficult to say! If their respective markets continue growing strongly, they will soon grow into their valuations.
But if they are overvalued, by how much?
My verdict:
Facebook seems the most overvalued of them all. I know it has the biggest engagement, but still. I think Facebook is overvalued by 30%. Amazon is overvalued by 30%. Google is overvalued by 20%. Apple and Microsoft by 10%.
But the valuations are dynamic. If their respective markets continue to grow rapidly and there are no major new competitors, they may well prove to be undervalued in the long-term.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of the company where I am working currently!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
Many leading investors have said that technology stocks are in a bubble. I will take a look at the big 5 US and global technology stocks: Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Facebook.
The technology behemoths exhibit different valuation metrics. Apple has P/E Ratio of 17.75, Google's P/E is 34.30, Microsoft's P/E is at 27.67, Amazon's P/E is 245.56, Facebook's P/E is 37.40.
The internet advertising market is growing strongly -> 10-20% a year and this trend supports the high valuations of Google and Facebook. The internet commerce is exploding, so this keeps Amazon's valuation high. The cloud services market is one of the next big things, so Microsoft's valuation is supported. Apple is thought to be increasing its market share and coupled with the growth of the smartphone market and some analysts see it's market cap surpassing 1 trillion USD.
Are they overvalued? It is difficult to say! If their respective markets continue growing strongly, they will soon grow into their valuations.
But if they are overvalued, by how much?
My verdict:
Facebook seems the most overvalued of them all. I know it has the biggest engagement, but still. I think Facebook is overvalued by 30%. Amazon is overvalued by 30%. Google is overvalued by 20%. Apple and Microsoft by 10%.
But the valuations are dynamic. If their respective markets continue to grow rapidly and there are no major new competitors, they may well prove to be undervalued in the long-term.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of the company where I am working currently!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Saturday, September 16, 2017
ETF Industry, Technology Stocks, Russian Stocks, Natural Gas!
Dear Reader,
The US stock market rally will go on for the foreseeable future. A black swan event is not in sight.The ETF industry could, however, trigger the next financial crises. It is already systematic and opaque in some corners.
As far as growth stocks are concerned I like Arista Networks(ANET), BOX, AMD, NVDA,TTWO, EA,ATVI. Nvidia(NVDA) looks pricey, but artificial intelligence is still yet to discover its enormous potential. NVDA build chips for artificial intelligence.
Technology mega cap stocks like APPLE, GOOGLE, MSFT, AMAZON, FACEBOOK could go higher still. Technology is here to stay, although there are the normal cycles. It could crash for several years, but technology is one of the ways to advance humanity.
Oil could go to 70 USD shortly, which would benefit Russian stocks, in particular. Basically, I think Russian stocks are underpriced. They are a pure value play. I think natural gas could become yet bigger for the automobile industry, which would hugely benefit Gazprom and Russia. Natural gas is extremely cheap now, so I think the industry will realize this relatively soon.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of the company where I am working currently!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
The US stock market rally will go on for the foreseeable future. A black swan event is not in sight.The ETF industry could, however, trigger the next financial crises. It is already systematic and opaque in some corners.
As far as growth stocks are concerned I like Arista Networks(ANET), BOX, AMD, NVDA,TTWO, EA,ATVI. Nvidia(NVDA) looks pricey, but artificial intelligence is still yet to discover its enormous potential. NVDA build chips for artificial intelligence.
Technology mega cap stocks like APPLE, GOOGLE, MSFT, AMAZON, FACEBOOK could go higher still. Technology is here to stay, although there are the normal cycles. It could crash for several years, but technology is one of the ways to advance humanity.
Oil could go to 70 USD shortly, which would benefit Russian stocks, in particular. Basically, I think Russian stocks are underpriced. They are a pure value play. I think natural gas could become yet bigger for the automobile industry, which would hugely benefit Gazprom and Russia. Natural gas is extremely cheap now, so I think the industry will realize this relatively soon.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of the company where I am working currently!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Sunday, September 10, 2017
Emerging Markets Stocks, Russia, Brazil and US Growth Stocks!
Dear Reader,
Emerging markets stock markets, Russia and Brazil, especially look undervalued.
I think oil, although stuck in a range, could break out to 70 USD for both WTI and Brent.
Russian and Brazilian stocks are thus poised to rise significantly. Basically, now emerging markets stocks are value stocks and US stocks seem the growth stocks. I do think the rally of US stocks will continue.
Nvidia could continue to profit from the ensuing Artificial Intelligence boom, while AMD could benefit from the Bitcoin revolution.
Lithium producers like Albemarle Corporation(NYSE:ALB) could benefit if electric cars take off. Furthermore demand for batteries is increasing, Albemarle certainly seems like a growth stock for the future.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of the company where I am working currently!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
Emerging markets stock markets, Russia and Brazil, especially look undervalued.
I think oil, although stuck in a range, could break out to 70 USD for both WTI and Brent.
Russian and Brazilian stocks are thus poised to rise significantly. Basically, now emerging markets stocks are value stocks and US stocks seem the growth stocks. I do think the rally of US stocks will continue.
Nvidia could continue to profit from the ensuing Artificial Intelligence boom, while AMD could benefit from the Bitcoin revolution.
Lithium producers like Albemarle Corporation(NYSE:ALB) could benefit if electric cars take off. Furthermore demand for batteries is increasing, Albemarle certainly seems like a growth stock for the future.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of the company where I am working currently!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Thursday, September 7, 2017
US Technology Stocks, Central Banks, Large Cap Banks and Oil Companies!
Dear Reader,
The US stocks bull run is still going strong. Nasdaq is on track to chalk up 30% return on 2017 as in 2013.
The European Central Bank gave a dovish message today and could possibly continue to buy bonds actively, which should further support stocks.
Gold is going up strongly in the last few weeks. The upside for gold, however, is limited by the intention of the Federal Reserve to continue raising the Federal Funds Rate.
Electronic gaming stocks(TTWO, EA, ATVI) seem a good investment, since millenials are deeply involved in playing electronic games on PCs, Tablets, Mobile Phones etc. Google, despite its huge market capitalization, seems not to be overvalued. Its market is simply growing very strongly and the company goes on earning high rates of return. Facebook has a huge profit margin. Microsoft and Apple seem fully valued, though. But it all depends on the IPhone and cloud services for those two technology behemoths.
Large cap banks and oil companies are the value plays of the moment. If the global economy does not take off actively soon, I do not see too much upside for large cap banks. Oil seems stuck in a range for the moment, but a bounce to 70 USD is possible in the midterm. So large cap banks and energy companies should continue to be value plays.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of the company where I am working currently!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
The US stocks bull run is still going strong. Nasdaq is on track to chalk up 30% return on 2017 as in 2013.
The European Central Bank gave a dovish message today and could possibly continue to buy bonds actively, which should further support stocks.
Gold is going up strongly in the last few weeks. The upside for gold, however, is limited by the intention of the Federal Reserve to continue raising the Federal Funds Rate.
Electronic gaming stocks(TTWO, EA, ATVI) seem a good investment, since millenials are deeply involved in playing electronic games on PCs, Tablets, Mobile Phones etc. Google, despite its huge market capitalization, seems not to be overvalued. Its market is simply growing very strongly and the company goes on earning high rates of return. Facebook has a huge profit margin. Microsoft and Apple seem fully valued, though. But it all depends on the IPhone and cloud services for those two technology behemoths.
Large cap banks and oil companies are the value plays of the moment. If the global economy does not take off actively soon, I do not see too much upside for large cap banks. Oil seems stuck in a range for the moment, but a bounce to 70 USD is possible in the midterm. So large cap banks and energy companies should continue to be value plays.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of the company where I am working currently!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Thursday, August 31, 2017
US Stocks!
Dear Reader,
US stocks continue their march higher. I do not see a bear market(fall of 20%) of the main indices in sight.
US stocks seem with lofty valuations, but the US economy is doing OK. Facebook seems a bit overvalued, but apparently investors think it will continue growing strongly and will develop new markets. Google is wildly profitable and its market continues to grow. Microsoft, Apple and Amazon see growth in front as well.
I do not see gold rising too much further. The Federal Reserve will continue its hiking cycle which should put downward pressure on gold. Oil seems to be stuck in a range and I do not see it breaking out soon.
Electronic games companies like Electronic Arts, Activision Blizzard and Take Two Interactive look attractive.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of the company where I am working currently!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
US stocks continue their march higher. I do not see a bear market(fall of 20%) of the main indices in sight.
US stocks seem with lofty valuations, but the US economy is doing OK. Facebook seems a bit overvalued, but apparently investors think it will continue growing strongly and will develop new markets. Google is wildly profitable and its market continues to grow. Microsoft, Apple and Amazon see growth in front as well.
I do not see gold rising too much further. The Federal Reserve will continue its hiking cycle which should put downward pressure on gold. Oil seems to be stuck in a range and I do not see it breaking out soon.
Electronic games companies like Electronic Arts, Activision Blizzard and Take Two Interactive look attractive.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of the company where I am working currently!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Saturday, July 1, 2017
US Technology Stocks, Bonds, Oil!
Dear Reader,
The Nasdaq Composite Index of predominantly technology stocks fell around 3% from its peak. I do not think this is the beginning of a repricing of technology stocks. The global IT market is still growing, the number of smartphone users is growing and the fundamentals of the global technology stocks still seem positive and intact. Any correction is still a buying opportunity.
As of late, there has been hawkish talk of raising interest rates by leading central banks like the ECB, Bank of Canada etc. and the yields on the government bonds of the world's biggest economies have risen. Personally, I do not believe this is a trend of rising yields, at least not markedly as of yet. If there is not another global recession, I believe the interest rates in advanced countries could start rising somewhere in 2018.
US WTI Oil could fall below 30 USD. If this happens, this would be a buying opportunity for oil stocks majors, oil fracking companies. Good bets if this happens, as far as I am concerned, could be Marathon Oil Corporation and Petroleo Brasileiro.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
The Nasdaq Composite Index of predominantly technology stocks fell around 3% from its peak. I do not think this is the beginning of a repricing of technology stocks. The global IT market is still growing, the number of smartphone users is growing and the fundamentals of the global technology stocks still seem positive and intact. Any correction is still a buying opportunity.
As of late, there has been hawkish talk of raising interest rates by leading central banks like the ECB, Bank of Canada etc. and the yields on the government bonds of the world's biggest economies have risen. Personally, I do not believe this is a trend of rising yields, at least not markedly as of yet. If there is not another global recession, I believe the interest rates in advanced countries could start rising somewhere in 2018.
US WTI Oil could fall below 30 USD. If this happens, this would be a buying opportunity for oil stocks majors, oil fracking companies. Good bets if this happens, as far as I am concerned, could be Marathon Oil Corporation and Petroleo Brasileiro.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Saturday, May 20, 2017
US Stocks, Emerging Markets and Central Banks!
Dear Reader,
This week US stocks suffered a one day drop by more than 1% measured by the main indices. They bounced back immediately, though.
I continue to think US stocks will go on rising. The Trump trade will fade a bit, but earnings will still grow. The US economic recovery will continue with pace of 1.2 - 2.0% GDP growth. Until there is a shallow recession. But even then, when stocks fall by more than 20%, this will be a buying opportunity. The US has become a safe heaven and it attracts a lot of capital, part of which finds its way into stocks.
Oil is stuck in 45 - 60 USD range and I do not envisage it breaking soon. Russia stocks should continue to rise, as the Russian economy is recovering. India continues to grow strongly and Indian stocks are a long term buy opportunity. The turmoil in Bazil is a buying opportunity, as far as I am concerned.
I start to think the Federal Reserve will raise the Federal Funds Rate only once more this year. I predicted this in the past, but the probability for a hike rose. Now the probability fell back again. That said, I forecast the yield on the 10 year US treasury will finish 2017 below 2.70%.
I expect the European Central Bank will go on buying assets until the end of 2018, when its Asset Purchase Program will end. I do not expect the yield on the German 10 year government bond to rise above 0.80% in 2017.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
This week US stocks suffered a one day drop by more than 1% measured by the main indices. They bounced back immediately, though.
I continue to think US stocks will go on rising. The Trump trade will fade a bit, but earnings will still grow. The US economic recovery will continue with pace of 1.2 - 2.0% GDP growth. Until there is a shallow recession. But even then, when stocks fall by more than 20%, this will be a buying opportunity. The US has become a safe heaven and it attracts a lot of capital, part of which finds its way into stocks.
Oil is stuck in 45 - 60 USD range and I do not envisage it breaking soon. Russia stocks should continue to rise, as the Russian economy is recovering. India continues to grow strongly and Indian stocks are a long term buy opportunity. The turmoil in Bazil is a buying opportunity, as far as I am concerned.
I start to think the Federal Reserve will raise the Federal Funds Rate only once more this year. I predicted this in the past, but the probability for a hike rose. Now the probability fell back again. That said, I forecast the yield on the 10 year US treasury will finish 2017 below 2.70%.
I expect the European Central Bank will go on buying assets until the end of 2018, when its Asset Purchase Program will end. I do not expect the yield on the German 10 year government bond to rise above 0.80% in 2017.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Friday, May 12, 2017
US Technology Stocks, Emerging Markets Stocks!
Dear Reader,
US stocks continue to go up. The large US technology companies Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook drive the market higher. They are set to continue to go higher driven by smartphone demand and artificial intelligence.
The larger US technology sector is also doing well. Private companies are raising astounding amounts of money. The money for startups is abundant driven by the low interest rate environment and the party is set to continue, at least in the next two three years.
US WTI and Brent oil is stuck in a range, but the risks are to the downside. US fracking companies are liking the higher prices and the conventional oil drillers(OPEC primarily) are bleeding and losing market share. The swing producer is now the US shale industry. US WTI oil could fall below 40 USD in the next few months.
Russia's economy is slowly improving and being restructured. The regulators in China are trying to get the air(leverage) out of the securities markets and this is stifling the growth of Chinese stocks's prices. India stocks look good, since the economy is growing strong.
The US stock market could correct by 10% measured by the main indices, but I think US stocks will recover, barring any financial shock.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
US stocks continue to go up. The large US technology companies Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook drive the market higher. They are set to continue to go higher driven by smartphone demand and artificial intelligence.
The larger US technology sector is also doing well. Private companies are raising astounding amounts of money. The money for startups is abundant driven by the low interest rate environment and the party is set to continue, at least in the next two three years.
US WTI and Brent oil is stuck in a range, but the risks are to the downside. US fracking companies are liking the higher prices and the conventional oil drillers(OPEC primarily) are bleeding and losing market share. The swing producer is now the US shale industry. US WTI oil could fall below 40 USD in the next few months.
Russia's economy is slowly improving and being restructured. The regulators in China are trying to get the air(leverage) out of the securities markets and this is stifling the growth of Chinese stocks's prices. India stocks look good, since the economy is growing strong.
The US stock market could correct by 10% measured by the main indices, but I think US stocks will recover, barring any financial shock.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Sunday, May 7, 2017
French Elections, Global Stocks!
Dear Reader,
Emmanuel Macron seems destined to win the French Presidential elections.
Global stocks should react positively and rise thereafter. 10 year German government bonds yield should rise mildly, as much of Macron's victory is already incorporated.
US stocks should continue rising. Much safe heaven capital flows are looking for some return and ending up in US stocks. Financial stocks could correct a bit, but they should go higher influenced by Federal Reserve Federal Funds Rate hikes. Furthermore, Donald Trump should be able to pass regulations that benefit the financial sector.
WTI oil could fall below 40 USD and energy stocks could get hurt. Fed hikes should push gold even lower.
European stocks, banks especially, seem undervalued. If Macron wins the elections, European stocks could rise by 5 - 10% as measured by Eurostoxx 50 and Eurostoxx 600. EU banks should benefit even more.
Chinese stocks seem capped by the authorities' effort to regulate financial services.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
Emmanuel Macron seems destined to win the French Presidential elections.
Global stocks should react positively and rise thereafter. 10 year German government bonds yield should rise mildly, as much of Macron's victory is already incorporated.
US stocks should continue rising. Much safe heaven capital flows are looking for some return and ending up in US stocks. Financial stocks could correct a bit, but they should go higher influenced by Federal Reserve Federal Funds Rate hikes. Furthermore, Donald Trump should be able to pass regulations that benefit the financial sector.
WTI oil could fall below 40 USD and energy stocks could get hurt. Fed hikes should push gold even lower.
European stocks, banks especially, seem undervalued. If Macron wins the elections, European stocks could rise by 5 - 10% as measured by Eurostoxx 50 and Eurostoxx 600. EU banks should benefit even more.
Chinese stocks seem capped by the authorities' effort to regulate financial services.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Tuesday, May 2, 2017
US Technology Stocks Boom to Continue, Oil, Gold in a Range!
Dear Reader,
US technology stocks continue their march higher. In my opinion, as long as the smartphone boom continues, the US technology stocks will go on rising. The smartphone is just such a powerful platform.
Artificial Intelligence is the next content that even now fills the smartphone.
Artificial Intelligence will usher in the fourth industrial revolution. Algorithms have great capacity to perform mundane, repetitive tasks.
US WTI Oil is stuck in a range between 45 - 60 USD which will be difficult to break. The factors that weigh on gold seem to be stronger than those that predict upside for the precious metal.
US stocks should continue grinding higher by 5-8% a year as measured by the main indices S&P 500, DJIA, Nasdaq.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
US technology stocks continue their march higher. In my opinion, as long as the smartphone boom continues, the US technology stocks will go on rising. The smartphone is just such a powerful platform.
Artificial Intelligence is the next content that even now fills the smartphone.
Artificial Intelligence will usher in the fourth industrial revolution. Algorithms have great capacity to perform mundane, repetitive tasks.
US WTI Oil is stuck in a range between 45 - 60 USD which will be difficult to break. The factors that weigh on gold seem to be stronger than those that predict upside for the precious metal.
US stocks should continue grinding higher by 5-8% a year as measured by the main indices S&P 500, DJIA, Nasdaq.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Friday, April 21, 2017
French Elections, US Stocks, Technology Stocks, Bunds!
Dear Reader,
I expect a right-centrist candidate to win the French Presidential elections. It will be eithor Macron or Fillon who wins the second round.
I expect French government bonds to rally hard, together with a milder rally of European stocks.
The rally in US stocks should continue. US technology stocks are richly valued, but because of the smartphone and the ensuing artificial intelligence boom their rally should continue.
German 10 year government bonds yield is to remain below 0.30% in the next several months. If Marine Le Pen becomes President of France, I expect the 10 year yield on bunds to fall below -0.30%.
US WTI oil could fall below 45 USD on US shale supply.
Despite the Federal Reserve raising the Federal Funds Rate, I expect gold to rally decisively in 2017 on safe heaven demand. There are just too many Black Swans - France, North Korea etc.
EUR/USD is to remain in a tight range in the next few weeks.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
I expect a right-centrist candidate to win the French Presidential elections. It will be eithor Macron or Fillon who wins the second round.
I expect French government bonds to rally hard, together with a milder rally of European stocks.
The rally in US stocks should continue. US technology stocks are richly valued, but because of the smartphone and the ensuing artificial intelligence boom their rally should continue.
German 10 year government bonds yield is to remain below 0.30% in the next several months. If Marine Le Pen becomes President of France, I expect the 10 year yield on bunds to fall below -0.30%.
US WTI oil could fall below 45 USD on US shale supply.
Despite the Federal Reserve raising the Federal Funds Rate, I expect gold to rally decisively in 2017 on safe heaven demand. There are just too many Black Swans - France, North Korea etc.
EUR/USD is to remain in a tight range in the next few weeks.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Friday, March 31, 2017
US Stocks, Gold, China, India Equities!
Dear Reader,
US equities could suffer a 10% correction in 2017. The valuations seem quite high. If Donald Trump does not manage to push through the deregulation of the financial sector I think US financials could fall more than 10%.
Gold should fall to 1050 USD in 2017. I cannot see gold rising, while the Federal Reserve is hiking rates.
US WTI Oil should fall close to 35 USD in 2017. Global demand is just too weak. China is slowing down, Europe's growth is anemic, US growth also.
China equities seem like a good investment as regards their valuations. India stocks should perform well, as India is growing strongly.
Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Amazon could rise more.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
US equities could suffer a 10% correction in 2017. The valuations seem quite high. If Donald Trump does not manage to push through the deregulation of the financial sector I think US financials could fall more than 10%.
Gold should fall to 1050 USD in 2017. I cannot see gold rising, while the Federal Reserve is hiking rates.
US WTI Oil should fall close to 35 USD in 2017. Global demand is just too weak. China is slowing down, Europe's growth is anemic, US growth also.
China equities seem like a good investment as regards their valuations. India stocks should perform well, as India is growing strongly.
Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Amazon could rise more.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Thursday, March 16, 2017
US, Global Economy, Russia, China India Stocks, Commodities!
Dear Reader,
The Federal Reserve hiked the Federal Funds Rate to 1.00%. The market and the United States central bank expect two more hikes in 2017, altogether three during the current year. I forecast just one more hike. The inflation data will worsen because of the current and future fall of the oil price. The US economy is growing with 1.5% per year. This is far from the economy's potential which I judge is about 3.4% year on year GDP growth.
Stocks have some further upside. The stocks of Brazil and Russia could tumble, because of the fall of the price of oil. Chinese and Indian stocks look like a good investment, because of the growing economies of the two countries.
Oil is set to reach 30 USD around June, July 2017. The global economy is just too weak. I forecast the global GDP will grow by around 3.2% in 2017.
Gold has further to fall. Gold could reach 1050 USD before it rebounds.
I personally like US technology stocks. The mobile, artificial intelligence and cloud boom are set to drive the sector higher. The technology megacaps Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Amazon should outperform. I like chipmakers like AMD, NVDA.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
The Federal Reserve hiked the Federal Funds Rate to 1.00%. The market and the United States central bank expect two more hikes in 2017, altogether three during the current year. I forecast just one more hike. The inflation data will worsen because of the current and future fall of the oil price. The US economy is growing with 1.5% per year. This is far from the economy's potential which I judge is about 3.4% year on year GDP growth.
Stocks have some further upside. The stocks of Brazil and Russia could tumble, because of the fall of the price of oil. Chinese and Indian stocks look like a good investment, because of the growing economies of the two countries.
Oil is set to reach 30 USD around June, July 2017. The global economy is just too weak. I forecast the global GDP will grow by around 3.2% in 2017.
Gold has further to fall. Gold could reach 1050 USD before it rebounds.
I personally like US technology stocks. The mobile, artificial intelligence and cloud boom are set to drive the sector higher. The technology megacaps Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Amazon should outperform. I like chipmakers like AMD, NVDA.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Tuesday, March 14, 2017
US Technology, Financial Stocks, Federal Reserve!
Dear Reader,
My forecast of oil WTI falling to 35-40-45 USD is about to come true. Apparently, the world economy is not strong enough to absorb the spare quantity of oil.
I forecast the Federal reserve will hike the Federal funds rate two times in 2017. Something will eventually get in the way of three hikes as both the market and the central bank forecast.
Technology stocks, while richly valued, will continue to do well. Some bubbles like GoPro, Fuel GroupOn, Twitter etc. have popped, but many remain.
I personally like chip manufacturers like AMD and NVDA and cloud companies like BOX.
APPLE, Microsoft, AMZN, Google and Facebook should continue their march higher. These five companies have changed the world in a remarkable way. Technologies of the future are machine learning and cloud computing.
The US financials stocks run has gone quite far, I think. The global economy does not feel like 2007-2008 and yet Goldman Sachs' price has exceeded the 2007 high. I think US financials are due for a 10% correction.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
My forecast of oil WTI falling to 35-40-45 USD is about to come true. Apparently, the world economy is not strong enough to absorb the spare quantity of oil.
I forecast the Federal reserve will hike the Federal funds rate two times in 2017. Something will eventually get in the way of three hikes as both the market and the central bank forecast.
Technology stocks, while richly valued, will continue to do well. Some bubbles like GoPro, Fuel GroupOn, Twitter etc. have popped, but many remain.
I personally like chip manufacturers like AMD and NVDA and cloud companies like BOX.
APPLE, Microsoft, AMZN, Google and Facebook should continue their march higher. These five companies have changed the world in a remarkable way. Technologies of the future are machine learning and cloud computing.
The US financials stocks run has gone quite far, I think. The global economy does not feel like 2007-2008 and yet Goldman Sachs' price has exceeded the 2007 high. I think US financials are due for a 10% correction.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Friday, March 10, 2017
US Stocks, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank!
Dear Reader,
US stocks wobbled during the last several trading days. I think the US stocks rally is still intact. As evidenced by the nonfarm payrolls report from today the US economy is doing well.
I still think the Federal Reserve could do two Federal Funds Rate hikes in 2017, which is still a lot. If the Fed hikes twice, I forecast the US GDP growth rate year on year will fall below 1.00%. If they hike three times or more the US economy could go into a recession.
Many market observers interpret the ECB's President Mario Draghi press conference this Thursday as hawkish. On the contrary, I think it was actually quite dovish. He spoke hawkishly, but acted dovishly. I think deeds speak louder than words in this case. I expect the yield on the ten year German governent bond to fall close to zero in the next several months.
My prediction that oil could fall to 45 USD WTI seems to be coming true. The fracking costs per barrel are now close to 30 USD, so the price could fall to 35-40 WTI USD even. Oil stocks could get hurt. If the Fed hikes rates aggressively this would hurt high yield bonds issuers as the fracking companies and topple the US economy in recession.
I think the price of gold could find a bottom at 1150 USD pre troy ounce.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
US stocks wobbled during the last several trading days. I think the US stocks rally is still intact. As evidenced by the nonfarm payrolls report from today the US economy is doing well.
I still think the Federal Reserve could do two Federal Funds Rate hikes in 2017, which is still a lot. If the Fed hikes twice, I forecast the US GDP growth rate year on year will fall below 1.00%. If they hike three times or more the US economy could go into a recession.
Many market observers interpret the ECB's President Mario Draghi press conference this Thursday as hawkish. On the contrary, I think it was actually quite dovish. He spoke hawkishly, but acted dovishly. I think deeds speak louder than words in this case. I expect the yield on the ten year German governent bond to fall close to zero in the next several months.
My prediction that oil could fall to 45 USD WTI seems to be coming true. The fracking costs per barrel are now close to 30 USD, so the price could fall to 35-40 WTI USD even. Oil stocks could get hurt. If the Fed hikes rates aggressively this would hurt high yield bonds issuers as the fracking companies and topple the US economy in recession.
I think the price of gold could find a bottom at 1150 USD pre troy ounce.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Friday, March 3, 2017
Snapchat, Technology Stocks, Emerging Markets Stocks, Commodity Stocks!
Dear Reader,
Snapchat Inc.(SNAP) is trading at Prices/Sales 60 - a ridiculous valuation. Many technology stocks are in a bubble, but driven by smartphones, cloud services and artificial intelligence, the tech boom is set to continue.
Oil is to fall to 45 USD driven by US shale drilling. Large cap oil stocks could fall 10 -20%, oil frackers more than 30-40%.
Brazil, Russia, India and China stocks are undervalued. Emerging markets are now self-sustaining. Emerging markets stocks are to embark on a long term bull market, despite the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates. Many large emerging markets are pursuing market friendly reforms which could bring long term prosperity.
Gold is to rise, despite the Federal Reserve hiking the Federal Funds Rate. European stocks are undervalued, but I do not see European economic growth accelerating much. Too many structural reforms have to be undertaken in order for Europe to grow above potential.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
Snapchat Inc.(SNAP) is trading at Prices/Sales 60 - a ridiculous valuation. Many technology stocks are in a bubble, but driven by smartphones, cloud services and artificial intelligence, the tech boom is set to continue.
Oil is to fall to 45 USD driven by US shale drilling. Large cap oil stocks could fall 10 -20%, oil frackers more than 30-40%.
Brazil, Russia, India and China stocks are undervalued. Emerging markets are now self-sustaining. Emerging markets stocks are to embark on a long term bull market, despite the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates. Many large emerging markets are pursuing market friendly reforms which could bring long term prosperity.
Gold is to rise, despite the Federal Reserve hiking the Federal Funds Rate. European stocks are undervalued, but I do not see European economic growth accelerating much. Too many structural reforms have to be undertaken in order for Europe to grow above potential.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Wednesday, March 1, 2017
US Technology Stocks, Japanese Stocks, Commodities, Federal Reserve!
Dear Reader,
The probability for a hike in the Federal Funds Rate come 15 March by the Federal Reserve is 80%. I still doubt the Federal Reserve will hike the FFR three times in 2017, but two hikes now seems quite likely.
US and global technology stocks should continue their march higher, I personally like AMD and BOX. AMD is making inroads in high technology processors, while BOX is at the forefront of the cloud services revolution. Just look at what happened when Amazon Web Services was down yesterday - thousands of sites that relied on AWS went down.
Oil is to remain in a tight range between 50 to 60 USD, so oil stocks have some upside 15-20% from the current levels.
Gold seems undervalued at the moment, provided the Federal Reserve is not too hawkish, so gold stocks stand to benefit.
The USD should strengthen to the Japanese YEN, so Japanese stocks could rise by 10-15%.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
The probability for a hike in the Federal Funds Rate come 15 March by the Federal Reserve is 80%. I still doubt the Federal Reserve will hike the FFR three times in 2017, but two hikes now seems quite likely.
US and global technology stocks should continue their march higher, I personally like AMD and BOX. AMD is making inroads in high technology processors, while BOX is at the forefront of the cloud services revolution. Just look at what happened when Amazon Web Services was down yesterday - thousands of sites that relied on AWS went down.
Oil is to remain in a tight range between 50 to 60 USD, so oil stocks have some upside 15-20% from the current levels.
Gold seems undervalued at the moment, provided the Federal Reserve is not too hawkish, so gold stocks stand to benefit.
The USD should strengthen to the Japanese YEN, so Japanese stocks could rise by 10-15%.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Monday, February 27, 2017
Emerging Markets Stocks, US Stocks, Technology, Federal Reserve!
Dear Reader,
The US stocks rally continues. I forecast 5-10% upside in the main indices DJIA, Nasdaq, S&P500 in 2017.
US technology stocks are basically pricing much growth in the industry, which is not impossible, given the fast development of mobile, cloud services and Artificial Intelligence.
I forecast the yield on the 10 year treasuries to finish the year closer to 2.50% than 3.00%. The Federal Reserve is to hike only once the Federal Funds Rate in 2017.
China looks interesting within the emerging markets. Brazil also seems to recover driven by accomodative central bank and the recent rise of the price of oil. Russia could do well driven by the realtively higher price of oil. India has excellent growth prospects. South Africa rides the resurgence of Africa.
Basically the BRICS emerging countries and Eastern Europe should do well, even though the Federal Reserve is in a hiking cycle!
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
The US stocks rally continues. I forecast 5-10% upside in the main indices DJIA, Nasdaq, S&P500 in 2017.
US technology stocks are basically pricing much growth in the industry, which is not impossible, given the fast development of mobile, cloud services and Artificial Intelligence.
I forecast the yield on the 10 year treasuries to finish the year closer to 2.50% than 3.00%. The Federal Reserve is to hike only once the Federal Funds Rate in 2017.
China looks interesting within the emerging markets. Brazil also seems to recover driven by accomodative central bank and the recent rise of the price of oil. Russia could do well driven by the realtively higher price of oil. India has excellent growth prospects. South Africa rides the resurgence of Africa.
Basically the BRICS emerging countries and Eastern Europe should do well, even though the Federal Reserve is in a hiking cycle!
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Thursday, February 23, 2017
Federal Reserve, Bonds, Stocks Correction, Chinese Stocks!
Dear Reader,
The Federal Reserve FOMC members seem divided on whether to raise the Federal Funds Rate soon.
I still envisage only one Federal Funds Rate(FFR) hike in 2017. I suspect one hike will be erased from the three currently pencilled in at the March Federal Reserve Meeting.
US stocks are due for correction. I think the correction will ensue when the Federal Reserve hikes the FFR. Most affected are going to be tech stocks, financials, utilities, real estate. I envisage a correction of 10-15% in the the main US indices DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq somewhere in 2017.
Chinese authorities have taken steps to curb the implicit reliance of the market for wealth management products on government guarantee. That could pull funds from the Chinese stock market and dim its excellent prospects. I still forecast, however, the Shanghai Composite will rise by 15-20% in 2017.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
The Federal Reserve FOMC members seem divided on whether to raise the Federal Funds Rate soon.
I still envisage only one Federal Funds Rate(FFR) hike in 2017. I suspect one hike will be erased from the three currently pencilled in at the March Federal Reserve Meeting.
US stocks are due for correction. I think the correction will ensue when the Federal Reserve hikes the FFR. Most affected are going to be tech stocks, financials, utilities, real estate. I envisage a correction of 10-15% in the the main US indices DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq somewhere in 2017.
Chinese authorities have taken steps to curb the implicit reliance of the market for wealth management products on government guarantee. That could pull funds from the Chinese stock market and dim its excellent prospects. I still forecast, however, the Shanghai Composite will rise by 15-20% in 2017.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Tuesday, February 21, 2017
Stocks, the Economy and the Federal Reserve!
Dear Reader,
US PMIs declined in February. I still believe the Federal Reserve will hike only once the Federal Funds Rate in 2017.
US stocks should not gain more than 10 % in 2017. Small cap stocks look a good bet.
Oil US WTI could fall below 45 USD, once more shale drillers come to market. China stocks should perform well in 2017 with the Shanghai Composite rising more 15-20% in 2017.
Stocks in India should do well as the Indian economy continues growing strongly.
Technology stocks should continue rising driven by mobile, cloud computing and artificial intelligence.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
US PMIs declined in February. I still believe the Federal Reserve will hike only once the Federal Funds Rate in 2017.
US stocks should not gain more than 10 % in 2017. Small cap stocks look a good bet.
Oil US WTI could fall below 45 USD, once more shale drillers come to market. China stocks should perform well in 2017 with the Shanghai Composite rising more 15-20% in 2017.
Stocks in India should do well as the Indian economy continues growing strongly.
Technology stocks should continue rising driven by mobile, cloud computing and artificial intelligence.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Monday, February 20, 2017
Treasuries, German Bonds, US and Emerging Markets Stocks!
Dear Reader,
US stocks should continue their march higher and rise 5-10% as measured by the main indices DJIA, Nasdaq, S&P 500 in 2017. Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 should rise by 10-15%.
I make the contrarian call that the Federal Reserve will hike the Federal Funds Rate only once in 2017. I envisage in another case at most two hikes of the Federal Funds Rate in 2017.
The yield on the 10 year US treasury is to finish closer to 2.50% than 3.00%.
In individual stocks I like BOX, AMD and Facebook, Apple, Google, Amazon and Microsoft.
Technology stocks should continue rising driven by the shift to mobile and cloud services. Apple, for a mega cap stock, is undervalued. It is valued as a value stock, when in fact it has significant growth potential.
Emerging markets stocks should rise steadily in the next 2-3 years, despite the Federal Reserve being in a hiking cycle
Gold is to rise circa 10% in 2017. Oil WTI is to finish the year close to 50 USD .
I forecast the yield on the ten year German government bond will finish the year closer to 0.50% than 1.00% and could turn negative in the first half of 2017.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
US stocks should continue their march higher and rise 5-10% as measured by the main indices DJIA, Nasdaq, S&P 500 in 2017. Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 should rise by 10-15%.
I make the contrarian call that the Federal Reserve will hike the Federal Funds Rate only once in 2017. I envisage in another case at most two hikes of the Federal Funds Rate in 2017.
The yield on the 10 year US treasury is to finish closer to 2.50% than 3.00%.
In individual stocks I like BOX, AMD and Facebook, Apple, Google, Amazon and Microsoft.
Technology stocks should continue rising driven by the shift to mobile and cloud services. Apple, for a mega cap stock, is undervalued. It is valued as a value stock, when in fact it has significant growth potential.
Emerging markets stocks should rise steadily in the next 2-3 years, despite the Federal Reserve being in a hiking cycle
Gold is to rise circa 10% in 2017. Oil WTI is to finish the year close to 50 USD .
I forecast the yield on the ten year German government bond will finish the year closer to 0.50% than 1.00% and could turn negative in the first half of 2017.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Tuesday, February 14, 2017
US Small Caps, Tech Stocks, Bund Yields, Treasuries!
Dear Reader,
I expect the main US indices S&P 500, DJIA, Nasdaq to post gains of 5-8% in 2017. I expect small caps to outperform with the Russell 2000 index rising 10-15% driven by the inward policies of Donald Trump.
I do not expect his tax changes to be sweeping. The US does not have fiscal room to decrease taxes a lot, but a gradual decrease of 5% of the US corporate tax rate could be expected.
Oil is to fall mildly below 50 USD in the first quarter driven by US shale resurgence. Gold is to go up by circa 10% in 2017.
I believe the Federal Reserve will hike only once the Federal Funds Rate in 2017. More hikes, three especially, could plunge the US economy in recession.
Technology stocks should continue their march higher. The smartphone boom is far from over. Most tech stocks are more than fairly valued, but the excesses should be absorbed by growth in the near term.
The EUR/USD should touch parity in 2017, but finish the year closer to 1.05.
I forecast that German 10 year government bond yields will stay low, below 0.50% in 2017, and lower for longer. The eurozone economy needs the stimulus badly still.
The yield on the 10 year treasury should finish the year closer to 2.50% than 3.00%.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
I expect the main US indices S&P 500, DJIA, Nasdaq to post gains of 5-8% in 2017. I expect small caps to outperform with the Russell 2000 index rising 10-15% driven by the inward policies of Donald Trump.
I do not expect his tax changes to be sweeping. The US does not have fiscal room to decrease taxes a lot, but a gradual decrease of 5% of the US corporate tax rate could be expected.
Oil is to fall mildly below 50 USD in the first quarter driven by US shale resurgence. Gold is to go up by circa 10% in 2017.
I believe the Federal Reserve will hike only once the Federal Funds Rate in 2017. More hikes, three especially, could plunge the US economy in recession.
Technology stocks should continue their march higher. The smartphone boom is far from over. Most tech stocks are more than fairly valued, but the excesses should be absorbed by growth in the near term.
The EUR/USD should touch parity in 2017, but finish the year closer to 1.05.
I forecast that German 10 year government bond yields will stay low, below 0.50% in 2017, and lower for longer. The eurozone economy needs the stimulus badly still.
The yield on the 10 year treasury should finish the year closer to 2.50% than 3.00%.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Monday, January 23, 2017
Bonds, Stocks, Commodities and Foreign Exchange!
Dear Reader,
I think the rally in US treasuries has run its course. I believe the 10 year US treasury yield could finish the year closer to 2.50% than 3.00%.
US stocks measured by the main indices DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite should post gains of about 5-8% this year.
Some of the bubbles in tech stocks have popped(Twitter, Fuel,DDD, Group On etc.), but generally the rally in tech stocks is still intact driven by smartphones. Artificial Intelligence could prove the next boost for the technology sector.
Chip hardware companies like NVIDIA and AMD stand to benefit from the resurgence of artificial intelligence.
US WTI Oil should remain locked in a tight range of 50-60 USD in 2017. Gold should test 1300 USD but the limit would not be broken decisively.
I believe the yield on benchamrk 10 year German bonds should fall back closer to 0.00% in the first quarter of 2017 driven by European Central Bank bond buying and political uncertainty in the euro area.
EUR/USD should test 1.00 in 2017 and even break below it and should finish the year close to 1.00
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
I think the rally in US treasuries has run its course. I believe the 10 year US treasury yield could finish the year closer to 2.50% than 3.00%.
US stocks measured by the main indices DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite should post gains of about 5-8% this year.
Some of the bubbles in tech stocks have popped(Twitter, Fuel,DDD, Group On etc.), but generally the rally in tech stocks is still intact driven by smartphones. Artificial Intelligence could prove the next boost for the technology sector.
Chip hardware companies like NVIDIA and AMD stand to benefit from the resurgence of artificial intelligence.
US WTI Oil should remain locked in a tight range of 50-60 USD in 2017. Gold should test 1300 USD but the limit would not be broken decisively.
I believe the yield on benchamrk 10 year German bonds should fall back closer to 0.00% in the first quarter of 2017 driven by European Central Bank bond buying and political uncertainty in the euro area.
EUR/USD should test 1.00 in 2017 and even break below it and should finish the year close to 1.00
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Tuesday, December 20, 2016
BRICS, US Stocks, Oil, Gold and EUR/USD!
Dear Reader,
US stocks are rising after the US Presidential Elections. I think they should continue to rise in 2017, but moderately. There are pockets of overvaluation in tech stocks, but generaly I do not see a fall larger than 30% in the Nasdaq in the near future.
I think the yield on the 10 year US government bond should continue to rise, but moderately. In 2017 the US treasuries yield should stay even below 3.00%.
The yield on 10 year German bunds should test zero(0) again. The ECB's buying of securites is a formidable force.
Oil seems stuck in the 40 to 60 USD range. I do not see US and global inflation rising. There are just too many headwinds, the leading economies are weak.
Gold is an interesting case. I think it could bounce off 1050 USD. The bottom of gold seems near.
The EUR/USD is heading to parity.
US banks and brokerages should continue to rise along with their European markets.
I think emerging markets will perform well in the next five years. The BRICS economies are big, important and already systemic for the world.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
US stocks are rising after the US Presidential Elections. I think they should continue to rise in 2017, but moderately. There are pockets of overvaluation in tech stocks, but generaly I do not see a fall larger than 30% in the Nasdaq in the near future.
I think the yield on the 10 year US government bond should continue to rise, but moderately. In 2017 the US treasuries yield should stay even below 3.00%.
The yield on 10 year German bunds should test zero(0) again. The ECB's buying of securites is a formidable force.
Oil seems stuck in the 40 to 60 USD range. I do not see US and global inflation rising. There are just too many headwinds, the leading economies are weak.
Gold is an interesting case. I think it could bounce off 1050 USD. The bottom of gold seems near.
The EUR/USD is heading to parity.
US banks and brokerages should continue to rise along with their European markets.
I think emerging markets will perform well in the next five years. The BRICS economies are big, important and already systemic for the world.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
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