The largest parts of the private credit industry's 2.5 trillion USDs assets under management are intertwined with the artificial intelligence, AI boom.
Other sources say 20 % of the private credit industry's loans are directly tied to software.
So if the current fourth industrial revolution or the AI boom pops and the Nasdaq Composite plummets by 62 % or more, Blackstone, BlackRock, TPG, Carlyle, Apollo, KKR, Ares, Blue Owl, EQT, Partners Group, CVC etc. leading private credit asset managers and mid-sized private credit asset managers could incur losses in their assets under management of 250 billion USD in mild losses scenario, 350 billion USDs in middle sized losses scenario, 500 billion USDs in worst case scenario and 1.2 trillion USDs in a catastrophic scenario, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.
Even the worst case should be absorbed by the global economy without a Great Recession 2008-2009 style economic loss.
As long as the banking sector is not horrendously hurt by a credit crisis.
The probability of which is 16 % currently.
No comments:
Post a Comment